Danny Jansen poised to solve decades-old problem for Blue Jays

The phrase “catcher of the future” has plenty of sour connotations for Toronto Blue Jays fans.

Finding that player has always been difficult, and it seems like the franchise has gone through veteran after veteran at the spot after failing to draft and develop a player who could hold it down for a significant span.

Even Ernie Whitt, by far the greatest catching mainstay in team history, wasn’t originally a Blue Jays draft pick. Among the top 15 Blue Jays catchers by games played only three of them — Pat Borders, J.P. Arencibia, and Greg Myers — were drafted by the club. Those three combined for just 8.9 total WAR in their careers with Toronto. Although to be fair catcher performance is notoriously difficult to quantify with precision, that’s not a big number for three players over a total of 1,522 games.

The fact of the matter is the Blue Jays have never drafted and developed a backstop they could pencil into the spot for a decade — or their six years of team control, or whatever your definition of a long time is — with confidence.

There’s a pretty good chance Danny Jansen could be that guy.

Jansen has only played 31 games at the major-league level, his defensive game requires refining, and he doesn’t have loud tools or impeccable draft pedigree. What he does have is an idea at the plate and enough power to make pitchers pay. His strong walk (9.5%) and strikeout (17.9%) rates in his MLB cameo were both encouraging and backed by his production in the high minors over the last two years.

His Statcast numbers were a bit hit-or-miss as he produced barrels at a high level with a near-ideal launch angle. On the flip side his overall exit velocity wasn’t great and his hard-hit rate didn’t jump off the page. The sample size (66 batted balls) was far too small to draw any big conclusions, but considering Jansen’s heavy inclination to hit the ball in the air he will need to it to clear the fence at a respectable clip. Much like virtually every catcher who’s ever lived, Jansen isn’t a burner, so the fact he doesn’t hit many grounders is more likely to be a feature than a bug, though.

While his ability to control the running game is an open question, the rest of his work behind the plate shows potential. No one is ready to call him a defensive ace, but he doesn’t seem likely to be a liability either. According to Baseball Prospectus his blocking and framing have generally hovered around average, minus an ugly framing run with Buffalo last year.

Even the throwing component of his game shows room for growth. The bad news is Jansen’s Pop Time of 2.08 seconds on throws to second base was a grim 62nd among 67 catchers who faced at least 10 steal attempts in the majors in 2019. The good news is his top-end velocity (81.9 mph) actually ranked right in the middle of the pack at 29th. If he can tweak his exchange (how quickly a catcher releases the ball after catching it) he’s got a chance to be significantly better than he showed late last year.

Jansen doesn’t possess a superstar profile, but he has a set of skills where it’s not hard to envision him as an above-average starter. That’s why Baseball America has him ranked as the 42nd-best prospect in baseball coming into the year and MLB.com (65th) and Baseball Prospectus (89th) also have him in their top 100 lists. That’s why he’s projected by some to be one of the best catchers in the game already.

Reese McGuire has been touted as a potential starter who could challenge Jansen, but that doesn’t hold up to much scrutiny. McGuire is undoubtedly ahead defensively (his Pop Time to second was eighth in the majors, ahead of even Luke Maile) and he showed well in 14 games at the highest level last year. Even so, his bat has never developed the way the Pittsburgh Pirates envisioned when they made him the 14th overall pick back in 2013.

In six minor-league seasons, McGuire has hit .263/.323/.344 and he posted a similar .233/.312/.339 in 369 plate appearances at Buffalo last year. As a left-handed bat with a solid command of the strike zone he’s not a total dud offensively, but until he shows a little more pop he looks more like a great backup than a good starter.

The Blue Jays’ catching situation is far from a puzzler. Start Jansen, keep Luke Maile as your rock-solid backup, and have McGuire work away at unlocking whatever’s left in his bat in Triple-A.

When Charlie Montoyo writes Jansen’s name into the Opening Day lineup on March 28, it will be an important first for the young catcher but it doesn’t seem like it’s going to be a one-time thing.

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