Daniel Jones, Deshaun Watson... Dak Prescott (!?) and the 8 grossest quarterbacks of Week 1

Week 1 of the NFL season was, well, at least a little weird.

The 2024 season's first Sunday saw the opening weekend's biggest favorite lose to the lowly New England Patriots at home. The Chicago Bears overcame a 17-0 deficit without a single offensive touchdown. One of the league's best quarterbacks was Sam by-god Darnold.

This left a Sunday loaded with quarterbacks who underwhelmed. But which were truly the most disappointing?

Fortunately, we’ve got tools to better understand just how damaging these underwhelming performances were. Using the advanced stat expected points added (EPA) can gauge how much a quarterback brings to the table compared to a typical player. By comparing each passer’s Week 1 EPA against their 2023 average we get a better picture of just how frustrating their debuts were. And we can find both of those thanks to The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his incredibly useful stats sites RBSDM.com and HabitatRing.com.

Who was the worst? There were several candidates but only one man can truly call himself the grossest quarterback of Week 1.

8. Dishonorable mention: Joe Burrow

2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: 1.7

Week 1 EPA: -1.7

Difference: 3.4 points worse

Burrow hadn't played a meaningful snap since last November and looked like it against a retooled New England Patriots defense. With Tee Higgins on the bench and Ja'Marr Chase rusty after a preseason holdout, Cincinnati continued its tradition of playing like hot garbage to start the season. Sunday marked the Bengals' third straight season-opening defeat.

Burrow only completed three passes that traveled more than seven yards downfield, struggling to make a shallow receiving corps more than the sum of its parts. He failed to find the end zone, though luck played a part there. He hit Mike Gesicki with a beautiful throw to the corner of the end zone the tight end bobbled just enough to have his catch overruled. One play later, Tanner Hudson was footsteps away from the goal line when, ope.

Still, it was a disappointing performance from a player and team used to slow starts. Chase will get back into field-stretching, game-breaking shape. Higgins will return ready to prove he's worth $30 million annually. And Burrow will round back into MVP-adjacent form as long as the thumb issue that ended his 2023 doesn't linger. But on Sunday, he kinda stunk.

7. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: n/a

Week 1 EPA: -15

Difference: Mac Jones clocked in at -4.9 EPA/game last season, so let's say... 11.1 points worse

Putting Nix on this list is difficult, as there's no 2023 baseline against which to compare him. It also feels unfair because he's not only a rookie, but playing in a talent-light Broncos offense.

Let's begin with the positive; Nix was responsible for the Broncos' only offensive touchdown, running in a touchdown from four yards out to pull within one possession late in the game. Of course, that was after nine different drives that failed to gain at least 10 yards. In fact, prior to that touchdown trek in the shadow of the two minute warning, Denver only had two drives that covered more than 20 yards... and both ended in Nix interceptions.

Behold, as Nix throws into triple coverage so obvious color commentator Adam Archuleta has an "oh no" cued up before the camera can pan downfield.

So, there's room for improvement here. When Pogs (remember Pogs?) are roasting you, you probably had a rough day.

6. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: -7.3

Week 1 EPA: -13.5

Difference: 6.2 points worse

How'd Bryce Young fail to crack the top five despite a worse passer rating than teammate Andy Dalton, who entered a 47-10 game in mop-up duty and threw a single, incomplete pass? Because this system judges performances based on a player's baseline, and Young stuuuuunk in 2023.

There was optimism for his 2024, however. Carolina added Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette to his receiving corps. Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis arrived in free agency to revamp the middle of the offensive line and spark the running game. Most importantly, first-time head coach Dave Canales arrived after helping revive the careers of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield.

And yet...

That was the FIRST OFFENSIVE PLAY OF THE 2024 SEASON. Then, on Young's second pass of the second half?

This is extra concerning, because these plays are part of the script Dave Canales had worked on throughout the preseason. Young's first pass, in particularly, was a meticulously designed play meant to serve as Carolina's mission statement for 2024. And it may have done just that, only in the worst possible way.

That second half interception isn't as concerning, but it's likely something Canales and Young talked about in the locker room only to watch it immediately backfire. Young steps up, avoids pressure... and then floats a pass where no one but the Saints can get to it.

These are not problems with an easy fix. The Panthers may be stuck in quarterback hell another year (or more).

5. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans

2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: -1.2

Week 1 EPA: -14.2

Difference: 13 points worse

All Levis had to do was grind out some first downs and protect a 17-3 halftime lead vs. the Chicago Bears. This is not what Will Levis did.

Levis embodied the quarterback we saw as a rookie in 2023. He ran face first into danger and treated his body as a reasonable sacrifice if it meant turning second and eight into third and three. He used his arm strength as collateral for losing bets, fully believing he was capable of turning 10-to-1 wagers on covered players downfield into jackpots.

While this was a delightful way to show Chicago what it was like playing *against* Rex Grossman all those years, it was not especially helpful for the Titans. Levis' inability to sustain an offense allowed the Bears to escape with a win on a day where they failed to find the end zone on offense. Instead, Levis threw more touchdown passes to guys in navy blue than Caleb Williams did (Williams' -10.6 EPA just barely failed to qualify for this list).

That is the beauty of this column; a space where we can post multiple game clips where announcers yell "no! no!" while the ball is still hanging in the air.

4. Daniel Jones, New York Giants

2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: -9.2

Week 1 EPA: -22.8

Difference: 13.6 points worse

Jones had, in terms of expected points added, the worst performance of Week 1. But he doesn't crack the top three because, well, this is the Daniel Jones we've come to expect.

The former sixth overall pick threw a ton of nominally easy passes, leaving him with an expected completion rate, per Next Gen Stats, of 75.2 percent. And he completed 22 of those 42 throws, leaving him with a completion percentage over expected (CPOE) of -17.2, second-lowest of the day behind Caleb Williams' -19.7 (well, dang, maybe I should have made Williams the dishonorable mention after all).

Of course, this is not to say a reasonable quarterback could have completed all of Jones' targets. There isn't a man in the NFL who could have threaded this touchdown pass through three Minnesota Vikings, though Danny Dimes did his damnedest to try.

Malik Nabers' arrival softened the blow, as the rookie had five catches on seven targets for 66 yards in his pro debut. Jones, when throwing to anyone else, completed less than half his attempts (17 of 35) for 120 yards -- a gruesome 3.4 yards per throw. Even the scrambling skill that helped him keep plays alive is fading; he was sacked five times for a net loss of 20 yards while gaining only 15 across five runs vs. the Vikings.

3. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: 10.4

Week 1 EPA: -5.6

Difference: 16.0 points worse

Prescott is the only member of this list whose team won Sunday. And, in all honesty, he's at least partially here because he didn't have to do much to pull away from an inept Cleveland Browns offense (more on that later).

Still, after losing Brandin Cooks (briefly, thanks to cramps) and Jake Ferguson (knee) from an already thin receiving corps, the newly-extended $240 million man struggled to find big plays against an elite Cleveland defense. The Browns' secondary was able to key on on CeeDee Lamb and hold him to only five catches and 61 yards on 10 targets. Prescott only completed two passes that traveled more than 15 yards downfield:

But he also only threw 11 second half passes, only one of which traveled more than 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Prescott did what he was asked to do and cruised to a win. While his numbers weren't overwhelming the only ones that matters here are 1-0.

2. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons

2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: 6.5

Week 1 EPA: -10.1

Difference: 16.1 points worse

Cousins was supposed to help the Falcons' trio of top ten draft pick playmakers realize their potential. This was not the case in Week 1. Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson combined for 84 receiving yards.

The high profile free agent signing looked like a 36-year-old man coming off a major leg injury. Cousins had only two more completions (four) than interceptions (two) when it came to throws that traveled at least 10 yards downfield. He didn't attempt a single deep ball and his passer rating on targets of 10-plus yards was a meager 76.5, buoyed by a touchdown strike to Pitts.

Cousins was roundly harassed by T.J. Watt all afternoon, which led to the proliferation of quick throws and lack of downfield development. He was still either hit or sacked on nearly a third of his dropbacks. This static in the pocket led to uncharacteristic underthrows and a general lack of comfort stepping up to deliver confident strikes.

There's reason to believe he'll get more comfortable with more reps. No one in the NFC South can bring the kind of pressure the Steelers did on a regular basis. Atlanta's hype train hasn't derailed, it's just moving a bit more slowly after Week 1.

1. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns

2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: -0.9

Week 1 EPA: -21.9

Difference: 21 points worse

In the first half, Watson completed just eight of 16 passes, none of which came more than five yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

This left Cleveland in a hole Watson was decidedly ill-equipped to dig the Browns out of.

This isn't new. Watson, for whom the Browns traded three first round picks and gave $230 million fully guaranteed despite more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL later described as "predatory behavior," played 12 games in two seasons with Cleveland before Sunday. He ranked 33rd among all quarterbacks in that span when it came to expected points added per play, an uninspiring place when there are only 32 teams in the NFL.

On Sunday, the Browns saw a quarterback who held the ball too long, missed windows downfield and ultimately failed to pull the trigger when given shots to beat an opportunistic defense. It was the Watson we've come to expect -- and a guy who may keep Cleveland locked in football hell for another generation.

This article originally appeared on For The Win: Daniel Jones, Deshaun Watson... Dak Prescott (!?) and the 8 grossest quarterbacks of Week 1