Dallas Stars Forward Wyatt Johnston Likely to Face Challenges in Meeting High Expectations in 2025

One of the best stories from this year's Stanley Cup Playoffs was breakout star Wyatt Johnston. The Stars found themselves a gem with the 21-year-old Toronto native, who helped Dallas in the most clutch moments and finished his breakout postseason with ten goals and six assists for 16 points in 19 games.

His stellar play saw him moved to the team's top line to play alongside star forwards Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz. This was also due to Joe Pavelski seeing a dip in his production and will no longer be in the picture due to his retirement this off-season. This will keep Johnston in his top line spot but it is worth noting that we have a small sample size of his abilities. We have seen it happen in the past where a young player steals the show in a playoff run only to follow it up by regressing to their mean as a player and going back to the player they once were after cooling off.

Related: Conn Smythe Picks: Why Wyatt Johnston is best bet for Stars

Johnston showed that he can be a gamer in the most clutch moments and could see him coming out of the gates red hot but there should be questions to how long he can stay hot. His betting line for points next season is at a very high 77.5 points (-110 on Bet365) and it's a tough sell to label him a point-per-game player already at such a young age.

The toughest part about this bet is which Johnston will we see as during his first 35 games last season, he scored nine goals and dished for 12 assists totalling 21 points and a 0.60 point-per-game average during that span. This wasn't a result of decreased playing time as the month Johnston played the most minutes of the season was November (236:18).

The following 47 games we saw an entirely different player with Johnston becoming one of the Stars leading point producers. He recorded 23 goals and 21 assists for 44 points and raising his point-per-game average to 0.94 during that span. He continued his success into the postseason and broke out to the point where everyone now knows his name.

Next season, the bar is set very high for him at 77.5 points and will mean he can't have any lapses like he did at the start of last year. It was his rookie season so you could attribute his lack of early success to that but it does make me seriously doubt if it is worth investing in a second-year player like Johnston especially at such a high point total. I would say to avoid Johnston as there is a lot of uncertainty still and potentially wait until next season before looking at putting money on him to perform.

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