CTVN - Thursday, May 23, 2024 - 12:00 a.m. (ET) - Segment #8

bob lighthizer who is a U.S. trade representative and who we negotiated with during the trump years, he continues to be influential, an influential adviser to trump and so, you know, talking to people like that is worthwhile, getting their perspective, because there's a fair bit of work being done at the present moment by some of those people that either anticipate being in a potential trump administration or who are, you know, preparing, you know, position papers and things like that. So it's worthwhile reaching out this them. >> The former president has floated the prospect of a 10% tariff on imports. That's certainly the policy measure that has garnered the most headlines as far as it relates to the canadian economy so far. How concerned should the federal government be about the prospect of that? >> Well, look, I mean, I -- I -- I don't think it's -- you know, I don't think it's just donald trump 2.0 that you've go the to worry about. I mean, what has happened in the united states is that there's been growing protectionism and isolationism there. Are far fewer people in congress that you can reach out to who you would describe as being free traders, and so I think we've got -- we're going to have our -- we're going to have our challenges going forward whether it's, you know, a donald trump presidency or whether it's a renewed joe biden presidency. I mean, if you look at what biden's doing in terms of, you know, his election campaign, it's trying to get as many organizers, labour leaders on side as possible. And so, you know, it -- it isn't going to be easy. >> Vassy: what do you think accounts for the growing influence of the ideals associated with protectionism? The evolution that you just described, what do you think accounts for it? >> Well, you know, it -- the U.S. has gone through various iterations of this before. I mean, you know, back, you know, they did not get into the first world war until 1917, they didn't get into the second world war until, you know, until pearl harbor was bombed, there was the -- in the 1920's, so these things, these things come and go in the u.s., and I think there's an anxiety about, you know, globalism and mistrust of so-called experts and things like that. I think it's all sort of -- and it's not just in the united states, I think, you know, it's happening in europe, it's happening -- it's happening all over. I think our concern obviously, we have 76 or 77% of our exports go to the united states, you know, we obviously have to worry about it. But -- but, you know, it's -- sub's -- it -- it isn't -- it isn't something that is just all of a sudden come about, it's been creeping up. I think donald trump tapped into that sentiment in 2016, and I think since then, it's just -- it's just grown. So we have to -- we have to be -- warning the prime minister's doing at the present moment is the right thing. I think that the, you know, the ministers that are down there a lot, I also think that minister blair reaching out in terms of the, you know, illustrating how we are prepared and are going to become more and more reliable defence and security partner is worthwhile too. I mean, we can't just talk about trade with the americans, we've got to be sensitive to their needs in terms of defence and security. So as I say, it's -- it's going to be a challenge regardless of who wins the election, just because of the mood of america at the present moment. >> And when you look, I guess, ahead through the next six months, you reference sort of the strategy being employed right now, the number of minister that is have made trips, for example, to different parts of the united states as well as yesterday the prime minister. You know if they were to ask your advice about what more they should be doing or what else, I guess, they should be doing, what would you tell them in that period now between where we are in the election? >> Well, I -- you know, again, and i, you know, just to repeat, I think that what -- what they are doing is the right thing to do on the trade side which is to emphasize the fact that we are good trading partners, that in fact there are a lot of american communities, american companies

that depend on trade with canada that it's a mutually beneficial relationship, but there's no doubt whatsoever that, you know, is' more important to us than it is to them. And so, you know, we did need to understand as a country and this isn't just the government, this is as a country, we need to understand that, you know, for them things like defence and security, I mean, those -- those are the things that are top of mind to them, you know, migration, illicit drugs, I mean, all of these things are issues whereas -- as neighbours in north america, we need to demonstrate to the united states that we are reliable partners and whether that's helping with norad modernization and defending, you know, the arctic and the whole range of, you know, sort of the -- the infrastructure of north america that could be under attack, cyber security, there are a whole range of these kinds of things where inc. It's just really important for us to continue to demonstrate that we are a reliable partner of the united states of america. And that's going to be -- that's going to be critical in terms of maintaining our trading relationship. >> Vassy: I guess is it fair for me to interpret that as we have to talk about trade but not just about trade? >> That's exactly right. I mean, I understand why we want to talk about trade. I used to want to talk about it all of the time too and I used to find that they would say, yeah, that's very interesting, nice of you to talk about that now, could we have a talk about what we would like to talk about and, you know, that -- that wasn't always about trade. So -- so we have to be -- we have to be -- it's like any relationship, you know, if you are just talking about what you want to talk about, you become, you know, you don't have a strong friendship, relationship as if you are making sure that you are sensitive to their needs too. And I think -- I think as I say, I think minister blair is doing some of that and I think others are doing it and I think that's extremely important. >> I'm going to leave it on that note. Thank you so much, Mr. McNAUGHTON, pleasure to get your insight as always. >> Yeah, no problem at all, thanks. >> Vassy: former canadian ambassador to the U.S. there, david macnaughton. Coming up on front bench, the front bench is here, talking about grocery prices and the debate over what to do about them there. 24th are, carleen [Ambient Sounds] [Ambient Sounds] [Ambient Sounds] [Silence] This is her why. What's yours? Discover the science behind managing weight at truthaboutweight.ca. Nutty...and sweet. Latte macchiato. ( ) This one is for the prize? Intenso. No, cool. Definitely iced. ( ) Sweet. Bye. Nespresso, what else? (Keys jingling, click of light switch) Your boss' name is Heather And she made you have an awful day Let me sing all your problems away Get started for free on eharmony. Must be 18 or older to join. Get who gets you. eharmony. Woman: Timmy, I love you! Thank you. This is late show or, like, a late-late show? ( ) (Indistinct shout) (Applause) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Timothée:Blue de Chanel. (Song in French) ( ) ( ) Oh ( ) ( ) Get a head start with Samsung Galaxy s24 Ultra and Canada's fastest 5g+ network. Depend offers all day protection. So you can say "yes" to alll-most anything. Yes! Yes! Yes! No! Depend. The only thing stronger than us, is you. Hey! Wake-up. The words in your head, you're the only one that can hear them. Say it! Yes. I. Can.

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But we're going to continue to stand up for the middle class and people working hard to join it. >> He's bn power during the worst food price inflation in over four decades. Will the prime minister agree with me that his carbon tax coalition is nothing more than an anticompetitive price fixing scheme that is costing canadians at the grocery store? >> Vassy: you heard it there, the high price of food is dominating debate on the hill with the ndp accusing the liberals of inaction and calling for a corporate tax hike of sorts. The tories highlighting shocking new data on food bank use and the liberals arguing their plan for it all is still working. Who will canadians believe? Let's talk about that with the front bench. Former alberta mla and cabinet minister gary mar is with us, he's the president and ceo of the canada west foundation. Gary, we're missing you here in studio, everyone else, carlene variyan is the former chief of staff to late liberal cabinet minister jim carr, an associate vice president with summa strategies now. Next to her former interim ndp national direct orr belong belong is here, president of traction strategies and next to karl canadian press reporter is with us. She correspondence the economy in an amazingly I should say. Hi, everybody, nice to see you. Karl, I'm going to start with you on this one because the ndp is driving the conversation today on grocery prices. Why is it -- why is this an issue the ndp wants to be at the forefront of and do you think they are succeeding in their messaging around it? >> Well, they want to be at the forefront but they haven't been. The conservatives have been at the forefront of this issue and any affordability issue and it's a way for the ndp to try to go on the offensive. But here's the problem. The new democrats are going after a corporation, and they're going after the liberals for not going after corporation. Conservatives are going after the liberal government. What is the easiest path to twins people that the government is wrong? That's the one that's going front and central, again, the trudeau liberals. So the ndp has a longer path to convince vote that's they have the solution that the liberals are to blame. Meanwhile, the tories are taking that shortcut. I'm not saying that the ndp's wrong, but from a political strategy point of view, the conservatives scoring more points because they are putting the blame squarely on trudeau's shoulders and they have not been able to respond. >> My impression seems to be that the ndp feels like this is one of those issues where they can criticize the conservatives, which they do in a host of other issues, but also as karl mentioned, the liberals which is at times a vulnerability for them politically, right, because they are supporting them in government right now. Do you think it will be successful for them in that, carlene? It's tough to say. I did think that jagmeet singh was strong in question period today. His tone and demeanor on this issue has always been one that gave off authenticity that I think a lot of people could connect w I think the problem is sort of, as karl said, that ultimatim ineffectiveness in getting to an outcome that they want which is people, you know, losing that confidence in the current government's ability to -- to deliver change and voting ndp in the next election. I also think that at the core of this, something that should be mentioned is food bank use is up because families are struggling. A decrease in food prices alone is never really going to be the fix for that. It's going to be the big system pieces like housing affordability that are probably going to ultimately get us out of this, in the inflation numbers that just came out yesterday, food prices were actually down, as overall inflation was down. So I think while -- >> Vassy: food prices republican, just the rate of inflation is down. >> Right. So I think -- I think there's some -- there are a few different layers there. But, yeah, ultimately, hitting the government directly is always going to be more effective and when you are supporting the government, as the ndp is, you are doing two things. You are taking away some of your ability to criticize and you are also letting the liberals own a lot of the win which you were driving which you see the liberals doing every day with dental care and pharmacare. >> Carlene brings up a good point around the data right now

because I think what it says is that if we had this conversation a year ago, the political impact telephone would be huge. But when inflation was at 10, 11% for food, above headline inflation at the time, but at this point it's actually below headline inflation. I think it was at 1.4% and headline was at 2.3. >> 2.7. >> 2.7%. So like does this -- I guess does the politics of all of this become muted at all given that or is there such a disconnect with how people feel at the grocery stores that this potentially still have an impact. >> I think the polling is quite different. You see the liberals themselves, they have to come out in the fall and say you know what, we are going to stabilize prices. The reality is nothing really happened from that and they moved away from having to talk about that and said, hey, forget about how it happened, food inflation is down significantly, like you said, 1.4%, reached do you believe digits at some point and said, listen, prices have stabilized and we're just going to move forward. But reality is, it's different for the government to celebrate that when food prices are still much, much higher than they were a few years ago, more than 20% higher, and people aren't over it really fully emotionally speaking going into the grocery stores and spending $5 for lettuce. And I think eventually it will become the new normal and this will pass. But in this current moment, it hasn't, and staff like that, I think they still -- they still hit home. And so for the liberals, it's kind of tricky waters talking about food inflation or trying to say, you know, things are better. >> Yeah, I think, gary, that -- and the interesting part of this from a political perspective is also that though the solutions may be more targeted, the impact of the issue is very broad-based. And by that, I mean all of us, no matter our income point going to that grocery store and notice how much a bag costs now versus -- I don't think there's a time wheregy to my grocery store where me and my husband don't go, oh, my gosh, another $100 for this bag. And I think that's almost universal which mean that the politics of that could be potentially or are, are, I think, significant. >> I think that's exactly right. I mean, everybody feels it, it doesn't matter what -- what xstrata of canadian society you are. From I do recall predicting that the most expensive four-wheeled vehicle that you are going to get in canada was a costco shopping cart. I think that's turned out to be true. And it's challenging for average canadians who look at that grocery bill whenever they go to the store and they think to hem selves, holy moley things are going up. And it's not clear to me how it is that an excess profits tax will make things better, actually. I mean, in 2022, the federal government put in its budget an excess profits tax on bank profits, bank -- insurance companies, as I recall. And I -- I don't know how you put a tax on, you know, on a bank or an insurance company or a grocery store without it having get passed on to the customers or consumers of those products. So it's not clear to me that this is the right way of approaching it. It was interesting to hear the prime minister talk about having his minister look at it in the competition act, I would think that one of the things in the competition act would be, well, we should be encouraging more competition. Whether it's banks, whether it's telcos, whether it's grocery stores, we don't have a sufficient amount of competition in the canadian marketplace. That would have a much better effect in terms of driving prices down. >> Vassy: I think my impression is that the government's already decided that's the case because they would have brought in that tax earlier because it had been floated for a while and they seem to keep the changes they've made to the competition act. Of the issue for them is that those changeless take, you know, best case scenario take effect mid to long-term, which means no change for consumers overnight. >> Minister champagne read his fliers and saw the mission was accomplished, so. >> Prices are down, yeah, yeah. Okay, going to take a quick break, the front bench -- >> Turkey. >> They made the turkeys cheap at thanksgiving, okay, going to take a break, the front bench is sticking around. Going to talk the wider strategy of each party as we head into this last stretch before the summer barbecue season. We're back in a moment. ( ) (Clattering) ( ) I sit back And let a Bud light the way If you think EVs have about as much personality as a toaster, we don't blame you. That's why we didn't make just any EVs. We made an ev so powerful, it can charge another ev. ( ) And an ev with a mode that does this. ( ) The only ev that's a Mustang. The only ev that's an f150. ( ) At Pet Valu, we treat

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are board of it, repeat. And I think that it's a strategy that's important, you know, particularly in the world that we live in where we are bombarded with media, tara bytes of information every single hour of the day. So I don't think that pierre poilievre is going to change his messaging. It's worked for him so far and I think he will continue to do it. With respect to whether these programs are good or not is -- doesn't really seem like the issue for most canadians. I think that most canadians are looking at their costs overall, dental's only part of it. Pharmaceutical's only part of it. It's about groceries, it's about fuel, it's about taxes, it's a whole host of things. And the liberals have a great deal to -- of a hole to climb out of. Now, you don't want to peak too soon. So, you know, I think it's more of note that there -- everybody seems to be in election mode right now for an election that's not going to happen for quite some time to come. So lots can happen between now and october of 2025. >> Vassy: yeah, nojour, it's felt like that for a while. I think gary said it much more eloquently than me. I think what I meant is will that sentiment for change ultimately mean that the wedges that the liberals are I think justifiably putting forward around like here's all of the stuff we are offering that we don't know what the conservatives will do with, like, will that essentially not work because there is that strong sentiment for change? >> I think it depends on how people's feelings change when interest rates come down, you know, when the economy maybe picks up a little bit more than it is right now, I think also the capital gains fight also has the potential of potential I will being a better wedge because Mr. Poilievre has not said how he will vote on that policy versus some of the other ones where he kind of takes the wedge away by saying no, you know what, we're going to vote for this or, yeah, we are -- we are for, you know, we're going to vote for the anti scab legislation or things like that. On the flip side, though, I think it will be interesting to see how the conservatives started a justing their economic message with time, because I think you look at the last year or so, we went from just inflation to the high cost of everything and interest rates and now as we enter this new phase of potential rate cuts, that might come as early as early june, it's going to take away another thing to talk about a little bit from the conservatives and how will they manoeuvre and adjust to that, you know, yesterday, he was talking about, Mr. Poilievre was talking about the government not locking in cheap debt and talking about government spending, is that going to be the big new focuses and so I'm curious to see how the next five weeks play out on that front if specifically we get a rate cut on june 5th. >> Even if we do get the rate cut, it will be -- I mean, nojour would know better than me, but everything I've read is that it will be small and it will be incremental and over time and it will never be zero per cent again which might impact -- even one cut might impact sentiment but to really have a pronounced impact, it might take more than that. >> Yes. Take more than that and the thing is it doesn't change the narrative. It doesn't change the narrative which is after eight years of justin trudeau, do you want four more years of justin trudeau? >> Nine years. >> Right years now. So that won't change. And so that momentum for change, it's a hard thing to fight in politics. Now, the thing that is important to remember is that when -- you know, we are talking about the dental care policy, what's interesting from a strategic point of view is that the liberals are picking a fight up about a program that's not fully there yet saying, you know, if you like this program that you don't have, you will lose it if you are like these guys. So it's a bit of a stretch. That said most people who have signed up are really keen on keeping it, and technically it has the added advantage of marginalizing the ndp who are behind that policy in the first place but they are not part of the conversation as much because now it's opened by the liberal brand, the liberal government and that's a key challenge for the ndp to try to get a bit of a china momentum they are not able to do that because they are not part of the navitive. >> Vassy: which is so interesting because they are actually the ones who drove, they were the key thing that got this done and now the liberals -- >> Worked hard to get it and it took forever and now they have it and suddenly it's the liberal brand. >> And make no mistake, the liberals will campaign on that in the next election, without a doubt. >> Vassy: that's wild. That's why we love it. Thank everyone, thanks to our front bench, appreciate it. Carlene variyan, gary mar, karl belanger and our They say, "post it or it didn't happen." 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