Could UK women’s basketball return to NCAA Tournament this year? Bracketology says yes.

Could Kentucky make its return to the NCAA Tournament in Kenny Brooks’ first season? The national media seems to think so.

ESPN chief women’s basketball bracketologist Charlie Creme published the latest iteration of his popular series for the 2024-25 campaign on Wednesday, and the Wildcats are squarely in the field. In Wednesday’s update, UK is a No. 6 seed (with the added note as having “moved up” from the previous edition).

If March Madness began tomorrow — and Creme’s predictions held true — the Wildcats would face expected automatic qualifier Princeton in Durham, N.C., competing in Region 2 (Birmingham, Ala.). Host Duke, at this point a projected No. 3 seed, would face expected auto-bid Norfolk State.

Kentucky’s last appearance in the big dance was 2022, when a Rhyne Howard-led roster upset eventual national champion South Carolina in the SEC Tournament title game and punched a ticket to the NCAA Tournament. Ironically, the Wildcats fell 69-62 in the opening round to, who else, the Princeton Tigers.

Since Brooks’ hiring at the end of March, there have been few reminders of previous eras of Kentucky women’s basketball. The Wildcats’ longtime home, Memorial Coliseum, was recently unveiled following a dramatic, $82 million renovation. Eleven of the 13 players on this season’s roster are brand-new to Lexington, including All-America point guard Georgia Amoore (previously with Brooks at Virginia Tech) and top-40 recruit Lexi Blue. And, despite the fact that the 2021-22 season was the last time UK assembled a winning record, high highs — or, at the very least, brighter days — seem within reach.

Creme predicts the SEC will be the most-represented conference (11 teams) in the 2025 NCAA Tournament, with reigning champ South Carolina expected to be the top-overall seed once again. Creme picked UConn, USC and UCLA to round out the rest of the top line. The 2023 national champion, LSU, is predicted as a No. 2 seed alongside SEC newcomer Texas, with fellow fresh face Oklahoma rated a No. 3 seed. Ole Miss (No. 5), Alabama (No. 6), Kentucky, Auburn (No. 8), Vanderbilt (No. 9), Mississippi State (No. 9) and Tennessee (No. 10) round out the conference representatives.

Creme lists Vanderbilt and Tennessee as two of the “last four byes.” He named Texas A&M and Florida as two of the “first four out,” with the Aggies as the first team to miss the field.

A change in metric

Important to note when considering NCAA Tournament seeding this season is the change in emphasis by the selection committee when constructing the field. Following a change in protocol decided in July by the NCAA Division I Women’s Basketball Committee, the women’s NCAA Tournament will “move to quadrant-based team sheets in 2024-25.” The committee also agreed that, going forward, the full, 68-team field seed list will be revealed on Selection Sunday.

That “quadrant-based” system, known colloquially as the NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool), has been the primary method used to determine the field in Division I men’s basketball since 2017. These quadrant ranges, according to the NCAA, are “based on the expected winning percentage versus a given opponent rank (in NET) with respect to game location, across all games,” based on data since 2010. The more “quad one” wins a team collects, the more padded its résumé.

The NCAA announcement also issued the following clarification on the quadrants.

“The ranges will be classified as quadrant one (home 1-25, neutral 1-35 and away 1-45); quadrant two (home 26-55, neutral 36-65 and away 46-80); quadrant three (home 56-90, neutral 66-105 and away 81-130) and quadrant four (home 91-plus, neutral 106-plus and away 131-plus).”

In a whirlwind offseason that saw the sport adapt to a world with only four “power” conferences and tremendous school movement both within and outside of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC and the now-downgraded Pac-12, the committee also opted to ditch both the specific conference and nonconference records from its criteria; the overall record, it said, is enough.

Committee chair and Arkansas assistant vice chancellor and deputy director of athletics Derita Dawkins said the choice to adopt the “quadrant-based team sheets” would be advantageous in both the selection and bracketing processes.

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