Could Hurricanes make ACC title game or playoffs with two losses? What you need to know

The Miami Hurricanes (9-1, 5-1 in conference) know they will make the Atlantic Coast Conference championship game by winning their final two games — at home against Wake Forest on Nov. 23 and at Syracuse on Nov. 30. They know they will make the 12-team College Football Playoff (and get a first-round bye) if they win their final two games and then win the ACC title game.

But what would happen to the Canes’ chances of making the ACC title game if they lose one of their two remaining regular-season games? And could they still make the playoff if they lose in the ACC title game?

What to know on each of those questions:

IF UM LOSES ONE MORE REGULAR-SEASON GAME

In this scenario, the Canes would not make the playoffs if SMU (the only undefeated team in the ACC) wins out against Boston College, at Virginia and California and if Clemson wins at Pittsburgh on Saturday in its final conference game. (Clemson then closes with games against The Citadel and South Carolina, but those results have no impact on ACC tiebreakers.)

Those aforementioned results would leave SMU with no ACC losses, Clemson with one ACC loss and UM with two ACC losses, thus leaving Miami out of the playoffs.

So if SMU wins out and UM loses at Syracuse, the Canes at the very least need a Clemson loss at Pittsburgh. But even that wouldn’t assure anything for UM. Here’s why:

If UM and Pittsburgh and Clemson all finish tied with two losses, their only common opponent would be Louisville. That would eliminate Clemson, which lost to Louisville. The UM-Pitt tiebreaker would then be determined by win percentage of conference opponents; Pittsburgh holds a significant edge over Miami there.

So in this scenario, if SMU wins out and the Canes lose at Syracuse, UM would need Pittsburgh to beat Clemson and then lose at Louisville or Boston College. And if in this scenario, the Canes are assured of nothing.

Let’s say UM loses at Syracuse; SMU wins out; Pittsburgh beats Clemson; and Louisville wins its final two ACC games at Stanford and then home to Pittsburgh.

In that scenario, UM, Clemson and Louisville would all be tied for second with two losses. The fact UM beat Louisville would be irrelevant in the tiebreaker because UM didn’t play Clemson and because Louisville beat Clemson, according to a clarification from the ACC office.

Because UM, Clemson and Louisville have no common opponents, this would then come down to the record of their conference opponents. And Louisville has a significant edge there, eliminating UM from title game contention in this three-team second place tiebreaker.

One UM-loss-at-Syracuse scenario that definitely gets Miami in the ACC title game would be Pittsburgh beating Clemson and then beating Louisville but losing at Boston College.

Another UM-loss-at-Syracuse scenario that definitely gets Miami in the ACC title game would be Pittsburgh beating Clemson and losing to Louisville, but Louisville losing this weekend at Stanford.

PLAYOFF CHANCES WITH TWO LOSSES

If UM loses one of its final two regular-season games and doesn’t qualify for the ACC championship, its chances of making the 12-team playoffs appear highly dubious.

But what if UM makes the ACC title game and loses? The Canes’ chances would be very shaky in this case, too. Here’s why:

Five of the 12 spots in the playoff field are filled by conference winners — the ACC, the SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and the highest-ranked team from one of the Group of 5 conferences.

That leaves seven at-large bids. If the 13-person selection committee opts to split those seven among Notre Dame (8-1) and the SEC and Big 10, then UM would not be invited to the playoffs in this scenario.

That’s certainly a realistic path. Notre Dame’s remaining schedule isn’t terribly grueling: home to Virginia and No. 16 Army and at Southern California.

So if the Fighting Irish gets in, the question then becomes whether an 11-2 UM team that loses the ACC title game would be considered to have a better resume than six teams that didn’t win the SEC, Big 10 and to a lesser extent, the Big 12.

In the Big 10, one among Oregon (10-0), Indiana (10-0), Ohio State (8-1) and Penn State (8-1) will win the conference title game. But would the committee take the other three teams for at-large bids over a two-loss Miami team? Indiana must still play at Ohio State; aside from the conference championship game, that’s the only game remaining among those four Big 10 teams.

So there’s a decent chance that none of these four teams will have more than two losses. And all conceivably could get the nod over a two-loss Miami.

In the SEC, Tennessee (8-1 overall), Texas A&M (7-2), Texas (8-1), Georgia (7-2), Mississippi (8-2), Alabama (7-2) and to a lesser extent, Missouri (7-2). Because of strength of schedule, it’s easy to conceive the committee taking three at-large SEC teams (even one with three losses) over a two-loss Miami team.

So if three SEC teams and three Big 10 teams and Notre Dame make it with at large bids, there would be no room for a UM team that loses in the ACC title game. UM would then need to hope that it gets the nod over one of those SEC or Big 10 fringe at-large contenders.

If UM loses to SMU in the ACC title game, the margin of loss would be considered when the CFP makes the 12-team field.

“It will be taken into account appropriately,” CFP executive director Rich Clark said.

And consider this final scenario for UM: What if UM wins out but loses the ACC title game to SMU, and Clemson wins out. Could the committee take a 10-2 Clemson team that isn’t in the ACC title game over an 11-2 Miami team?

“If the third-place team is sitting out and they’re not putting it on the table and actually risking a loss in that conference championship, the committee is sophisticated enough to.. take that into account,” Clark said.

Regardless how this turns out, UM’s margin for error is now gone.

Incidentally, even with UM’s loss at Georgia Tech this past weekend, ESPN’s FPI model gives UM a 50.7 percent chance to win the conference and a 60.2 percent chance to reach the playoffs — the best chances of anyone in the ACC.

▪ UM’s final home game against Wake Forest has been set for a noon kickoff on Nov. 23, with ESPN televising.