Yahoo Sports Cote’s NFL Week 3 picks: Is Dolphins-Seahawks upset brewing? Plus Ravens-Cowboys, all of the rest
GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 3 PICKS
DOLPHINS THIS WEEK
UPSET OF THE WEEK
DOLPHINS (1-1) at SEAHAWKS (2-0)
Line: SEA by 4.
Cote’s pick: MIA, 23-21.
TV: 4:05 p.m. Sunday, CBS.
“AAAWWWK!” soars the Upset Bird. “Seahaaawwwks are not that good!” Yeah so let’s get this straight: A Miami Dolphins win, even with Skylar Thompson pitching while Tua Tagovailoa nurses his latest concussion, would be less a shock than the mildest of surprises. Hardly one at all. Seattle is a wobbly 2-0 after one-score wins against the Broncos and Patriots. The stats say Geno Smith has been really good but he now faces Miami’s No. 5-ranked pass defense. (Jalen Ramsey vs. DK Metcalf should be fun.) Hawks struggled to run last week without top back Kenneth Walker III, who might be out again. If Fins can make the pocket messy for Smith, it’s a path to the upset. Meanwhile Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and a Seattle run defense giving up 142 yard per game will take some pressure off Thompson. Intangibles are in play here. Miami will be rested after playing last Thursday to offset the long trip for a first road game. There will be impetus for Fins to shake off the 31-10 loss to Buffalo and prove they can win without Tua even as bettors have sent Miami’s Super Bowl odds free-falling from 20-1 to 40-1. Dolphins are only 2-9 as road dogs under Mike McDaniel, but this is a team, right now, with something to prove. Nobody believes in the Dolphins anymore. Lets see how much they believe in themselves. “Homer talk. Homer Cote!” mocks U-Bird. “Seriously, though, fair points. Seattle is nothing special. And neither is Geno Smaaawwwk!”
GAME OF THE WEEK
Line: BAL by 1.
Cote’s pick: BAL, 27-24.
TV: 4:25 p.m. Sunday, Fox.
The surprise is not only the records in this playoff-caliber matchup. It’s the defensive problems — Dallas’ against the run, Baltimore’s against the pass. So the great-running Ravens and the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb all are seeing big games; hence an over/under near 50 points. Might the Cowboys lose back-to-back home games? Might the Crows fall to 0-3? The latter is less likely. Dueling trends, with Dallas 12-2 in past 14 games following a loss, and Baltimore 5-1 in all-time series. A big Lamar Jackson game by both arm and leg will be the difference as his versatility gets the best of Micah Parsons and that Cowboys pass rush. Ravens have not started a season 0-3 since 2015, and won’t this year. (Over/under on TV shots of a disappointed Jerry Jones up in his suite: 5 1/2.)
THE REST OF WEEK 3:
Thursday night pick was Jets (1-1, -6) over Patriots (1-1), 20-16: Find that complete prediction capsule separately here.
@Browns (1-1, -6 1/2) over Giants (0-2), 24-13: Took a shot on NYG upsetting Washington last week and got burned ‘cause close don’t count. Tempted again here with all of Cleveland’s injuries led by TE David Njoku out and DE Myles Garrett questionable. Plus Deshaun Watson stinks. But venue weighs big here. Giants on 2-10 road skid; CLE on 6-1 run covering as home fave. Browns, with no takeaways through two games, will get a couple on Daniel Jones.
@Titans (0-2, -2 1/2) over Packers (1-1), 20-17: Really tough call, partly because Pack QB Jordan Love returned to practice Wednesday and might play after missing only one week with a knee sprain. Otherwise it will be Malik Willis again vs. his former team. Ailing back also could limit Gee Bees RB1 Josh Jacobs. I don’t trust Will Levis or his protection, but I do have faith in a big defensive showing at home. Titans giving up only 3.8 yards per play (tops in NFL) and will best a hobbled opponent.
@Colts (0-2, -1 1/2) over Bears (1-1), 23-20: Two struggling offenses. CHI can’t protect rookie QB Caleb Williams (nine sacks), and Bears have worst yards-per-play in league. And Indy’s Anthony Richardson already has let fly four INTs. Teams can run on Colts, but De’Andre Swift has been stuck in mud. So we’ll anxiously trust Nags in home dome in near pick-’em game.
Texans (2-0, -2) over @Vikings (2-0), 27-23: GOTW first-alternate? Texans RB Joe Mixon and Vikes WR Justin Jefferson both have injuries and availability of each could be a game-swinger and complicates this call. Houston is now third-fave for Super Bowl at some sportsbooks. Do we trust that? Sam Darnold has Minny 2-0. Do we trust that? Vikes on a 5-0 run in series and a tempting home dog, but Darnold is due a Darnold game so I’m running a fade pattern on him and Minny. Give me C.J. Stroud and Stefon Diggs vs. subpar Vikes secondary.
@Saints (2-0, -2 1/2) over Eagles (1-1), 31-24: Another GOTW-worthy duel. N’Awlins offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has been a one-man parade as Saints have scored on every series thus far and QB Derek Carr looks like Derek Maserati. Philly is coming off a demoralizing Monday night late collapse vs. Atlanta, and now WR A.J. Brown is out. Birds also are on 1-8 skid. Having said all that a Phils win would not surprise. Saints can’t sustain this phenomenal offensive start — but will for at least another week against an Eagles defense that has been capital-B Bad.
@Chargers (2-0, +1 1/2) over Steelers (2-0), 19-16: Upset! New Bolts coach Jim Harbaugh is winning with a hard lean on run game and defense. Isn’t a pretty recipe or one pleasing to Justin Herbert’s fantasy owners, but it’s working entering this battle of unexpected early unbeatens. Herbert is iffy with a hurt ankle, but that doesn’t bring the panic it used to. Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins has been a beast thus far but faces stout run-D in Pitt. Justin Fields takes snaps again for Steelers off two turnover-free games but faces an air-tight Bolts defense. ‘Under’ is 14-3 in LAC’s past 17 games and should continue.
@Buccaneers (2-0, -6 1/2) over Broncos (0-2), 23-17: Tampa continues as the most underappreciated good team in NFL as Baker Mayfield continues to outplay his reputation. Denver sees as big future in Bo Nix, but he needs time, and his struggles have Broncos trying to be patient amid desperation. Heavy lean to Bucs outright but hunch Broncs with points as a strong Denver secondary slows the Mayfield Express.
@Raiders (1-1, -5) over Panthers (0-2), 27-13: Carolina benched struggling second-year QB Bryce Young in favor of experienced fill-in Andy Dalton — and the betting line shrank. Which tells you how bad Young was. Dalton gives Cats more hope right now. Also a game that threatens a major letdown by Raiders after last week’s stunning upset of Baltimore, although home-opener atmosphere should be antidote for that. Panthers have lost 10 straight on the road, Vegas will pound the ball on the ground, and Maxx Crosby will have Dalton longing for the safety of the sideline again.
49ers (1-1, -7) over @Rams (0-2), 24-16: A shell of a matchup due to injuries, with SF still missing Christian McCaffrey and now Deebo Samuel and LAR without both top WRs in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. That will make it tough to establish a ground game with Kyren Williams, who’s off to a slow start. Niners coming off tough road loss at Vikings but are on 12-1 run within division, and Frans defense will assert itself and own the day.
Lions (1-1, -3) over @Cardinals (1-1), 28-24: Arizona coming off a win while Detroit travels to its first road game off a home loss. That had the Upset Bird circling this one and sniffing the home-dog Cardbirds. Is Zona finally rising with a healthy Kyler Murray gifted Marvin Harrison Jr? Is Detroit oversold as a Super Bowl contender? This game will tell much. Lions WR Amon-ra St. Brown will play after an injury, and Motown have the better of an improved Cards D. Lions are 5-1 ATS as a road favorite since last season.
Chiefs (2-0, -3 1/2) @Falcons (1-1), 24-16.: Atlanta needed a dropped Saquon Barkley catch and a late Kirk Cousins miracle to stun Eagles last week. Does that mean the Dirty Birds are good? Let’s find out in this Sunday nighter. Reigning two-time champion Chiefs are without injured RB Isiah Pacheco, but expect a breakout game from a slow-starting TE Travis Kelce. By the way, Patrick Mahomes is super-good indoors: 10 career starts in domes, 10-0 record, 23 TDs, two picks. Bank it.
@Bills (2-0, -5) over Jaguars (0-2), 28-17: Monday night doubleheader’s early game finds Josh Allen only 3-5 on MNF and Trevor Lawrence 0-1 on the Monday stage. But Allen is sailing unbeaten while T-.Law has struggled early under the weight of his huge contract extension. Also the Bills are way rested after playing last Thursday in the beatdown in Miami. Jax beat the Buffs 25-20 last season and tempts getting five points. But revenge is sweet.
@Bengals (0-2, -7 1/2) over Commanders (1-1), 31-16: Monday’s late game delivers a QB duel between former LSU Heisman winners in Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels. Cincy is in early must-win mode from a 0-2 hole and should play like at home in prime time — with Burrow et. al feasting on a bottom-tier Washington defense. Commanders one of only three teams without a turnover yet but bet that ends in a tough road test for the rookie Daniels.
[Note: Betting lines are courtesy ESPNBet as of Thursday mid-afternoon.]
HOW THE DARTS LANDED
A spate of not reasonably foreseeable upsets made it a bloodbath of a Week 2, and it tangled me in a rare losing week outright at 7-9. The much better news? I navigated for a solid 9-7 against the spread, where the $$$ is counted. I nailed my Upset of the Week with Packers beating Colts, and bull’s-eyed five (!) big dogs-with-points in covers by the Saints over Cowboys, Buccaneers vs. Lions, Patriots against Seahawks, Browns vs. Jaguars and Bears over Texans. The first two weeks of the season have been survived more than slayed. Time to get cookin’! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was Jets (1-1, -6) over Patriots (1-1), 20-16. Find that separate full prediction capsule here..]
Week 2: 7-9, .438 overall; 9-7, .563 vs. spread.
Season: 17-15, .531 overall; 15-16-1, .484 vs. spread.
