Cote’s NFL Week 1 picks: Dolphins-Jags, Aaron Rodgers’ Jets comeback, 5 big upsets & the rest

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 1 PICKS

DOLPHINS THIS WEEK

JAGUARS (0-0) at DOLPHINS (0-0)

Line: MIA by 3 1/2.

Cote’s pick: MIA, 34-23.

TV: 1 p.m., CBS.

Miami lost three straight games to end last season without a playoff win (again). Jax ended on a 1-5 skid to miss the postseason entirely. Yet QBs Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence both were given massive contract extensions in the offseason. Now each, with much still to prove, must be the difference for his franchise beginning here. T-Law looked sharp in the preseason (for whatever that’s worth), and Jags have enough offense to be a fast test for a Miami defense under a new coordinator and with Bradley Chubb still out. But that doesn’t compare to the pressure Jax’s D will be under from the Fins with Tagovailoa the maestro of a speedy attack that can beat you in air and also on foot. Let’s see how good a suspect Dolphins O-line is. Let’s see if Tyreek Hill is ready for another assault on 2K. Let’s see if De’Von Achane truly is the featured back as fantasy drafts suggest. Let’s see if the defense is better than last year’s that ranked No. 22 in points allowed. Let’s see if 2024 finally is the season Miami ends it’s 23-year playoff-victory drought. The finding out all starts here, and it should start well fro Miami. Fins are 2-0 in home openers and 13-5 at The Rock under coach Mike McDaniel. And the Fins begin their 59th franchise season flatly better than Jax to a degree that a season-opening home loss would jarring, a gut punch. It won’t happen. Watch Tagovailoa’s air attack dominate a weak Jaguars secondary all afternoon.

GAME OF THE WEEK

JETS (0-0) at 49ERS (0-0)

Line: SF by 4 1/2.

Cote’s pick: SF, 24-17.

TV: 8:20 p.m. Monday, ESPN/ABC.

Week 1’s real GOTW was Ravens-Chiefs Thursday night, and Packers-Eagles in Brazil, Cowboys-Browns and Rams-Lions all had a case. But we couldn’t resist a really good Niners defense head-butting Aaron Rodgers’ long-awaited comeback in Monday’s prime-time opening week crescendo. Will the Jets’ 40-year-old anointed savior last more than four snaps this time? Tune in! Two good teams here but only one that could be Super-good. That’s San Fran, home and fully loaded after finally solving the Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams contract stalemates. Give NYJ a small edge on defense, the Frans a clearer edge on offense — and a bigger one in coaching with Kyle Shanahan over his friend and mentee Robert Saleh.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

PANTHERS (0-0) at SAINTS (0-0)

Line: NO by 4.

Cote’s pick: CAR, 23-20.

TV: 1 p.m. Sunday, Fox.

“AAAWWWK!” bugles the Upset Bird. “I’m back. I’m baawwk!” The pressure is on N’Awlins coach Dennis Allen, so a home-opening division win over a Carolina team coming off a 2-15 year is a must. But it isn’t a given. Saints luck to be in a weak division but are spinning wheels with Derek Carr. Cats QB Bryce Young, after a rough rookie year, has a ton more help around him now including a bolstered O-line — enough more around him to put an upset squarely in play. “Oy, but still a risky pick,” U-Bird acknowledges with a solemn nod. Then, a grin: “Bryce Yaaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 1:

Thursday night: Pick was Ravens (0-0, +3) over @Chiefs (0-0), 23-20, in upset: Find that full prediction capsule separately here.

Packers (0-0, +2 1/2) over Eagles (0-0), 27-24, in Sao Paulo: Upset! Week’s lone Friday nighter will be NFL’s first ever regular-season game in South America as King Sport continues its systematic global takeover. Eagles CB Darius Slay did the sorry-tour after saying he didn’t want to play in Sao Paulo. (Darius, fans there are so chateado over once-mighty Brazil’s fall on the world futbol stage I’m surprised they have passion to spare for the American version.) Philly out to prove it isn’t on the decline after ending on 1-6 skid last year, and Gee Bees are out to prove their (apparent) ascent is real. For now, I’m riding Jordan Love over a retooled Birds defense.

@Falcons (0-0, -3 1/2) over Steelers (0-0), 20-17: It’s Russelll Wilson at Kirk Cousins as two aging QBs try to reignite/reinvent their careers in new cities. I like Atlanta as sneaky good and a playoff team while not seeing a postseason repeat for Pitt. Bet here is that Cousins and his ample weapons (Bijan Robinson, Drake London) will prevail but that a strong, T.J. Watt-led Pitt defense will get inside the point spread in a low scorer.

@Bills (-6 1/2) over Cardinals (0-0), 27-17: Buffs are a vulnerable AFC East champ, but can Fins or Jets wrest the crown? I’m not huge on Bills, but tough to like Zona on the road and on a long climb from 4-13 — although rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. might be just what Kyler Murray needed. Bills are 35-13 at home under Josh Allen, but his team must prove its championship window isn’t creaking to close.

@Bears (0-0, -3 1/2) over Titans (0-0), 24-13: Rookie QB Caleb Williams, the overall No. 1 draft pick, has excited Chicagoans and has Bears on the rise ... but how fast? Tennessee and Will Levis are in rebuild mode and should struggle, so Williams needs to get this one at home. A solid ground game and big defense give him the help he needs in his hugely anticipated debut.

@Bengals (0-0, -8 1/2) over Patriots (0-0), 17-6: No Bill Belichick on a New England sideline for first time since 1999, and Patriots are biggest underdogs of Week 1 and on a 5-14-1 skid against the spread. Cincy star WR Ja’Marr Chase is back from his contract mess, though his status for Sunday remained in doubt as of Thursday — but Joe Burrow and Gals at home should handle rebuilding Pats in any case. Just a matter of time before NE turns to rookie QB Drake Maye. Early October?

Texans (0-0, -3) over @Colts (0-0), 31-20: C.J. Stroud and Houston are an “it” team that added weapons such as Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon in offseason. Indy could contend in division if QB Anthony Richardson and RB Jonathan Taylor can stay healthy in comeback years. Colts tempt as Week 1’s biggest home dog in one of only three division games out the gate, but give me Stroud vs. a shaky Nags secondary.

@Giants (0-0, +1 1/2) over Vikings (0-0), 21-16: Upset! I’m home-doggin’-it with NYG after Vikes’ season sagged with preseason injury to rookie QB J.J. McCarthy. Default starter Sam Darnold will have little time to find Justin Jefferson under assault from the best nose tackle in the league in Dexter Lawrence II. Always a risk to trust Biggies and Daniel Jones, but I will here in a game likely decided by turnovers — Darnold’s.

@Chargers (0-0, -3) over Raiders (0-0), 24-17: Much L.A. heat on new coach Jim Harbaugh and QB Justin Herbert, who continues to enjoy the hype without the results. But is a Vegas squad led by Gardner Minshew able to fashion the upset in this division game? (Rhetorical question, but ... no.) Raiders have been .500 or worse in 19 of past 21 seasons, and there’s a reason lone offensive bright spot Davante Adams wants out (no matter what he’s saying publicly).

@Seahawks (0-0, -6) over Broncos (0-0), 17-16: An aging Geno Smith in need of a comeback year in Seattle vs. rookie starter Bo Nix in Denver makes for an intriguing QB duel and also a rather unpredictable matchup. I like the Broncos’ future arc more but stil give Hawks the slight edge now. Denver will go dink-and-dunk with Nix, play safe, keep the score low and beat a point spread that gives Seattle too much respect.

Cowboys (0-0, +2 1/2) over @Browns (0-0), 23-20: Upset! Two playoff-good teams with solid rosters and big defenses make for a GOTW-quality matchup. The biggest question in this game — and season for the Browns — is whether Deshaun Watson can make a quantum leap from the dismal play of his first two years in Cleveland. I’ll buy that when I begin to see it. I’ll ride with Dak Prescott to outscore Watson, especially with top Browns RB Nick Chubb out injured at least the first month.

@Buccaneers (0-0, -3 1/2) over Commanders (0-0), 27-16: Not quite sure how Tampa has managed four straight playoff years and hard to imagine a fifth, though a weak division helps. And a weak opponent helps here. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels (second overall draft pick) might be Washington’s answer, but it might not be lightning-fast, especially behind a rebuilt O-line. Bucs D tied for most sacks in NFC last season and TB is 10-5 vs. rookie arms under Todd Bowles.

@Lions (0-0, -4) over Rams (0-0), 31-26: Two powerful offenses make Week 1’s highest over/under (50 1/2) a no-brainer in what should be an exciting Sunday nighter between two playoff teams. I’m leaning Detroit with an improved D over an LAR unit learning life after Aaron Donald, though offense will rule this matchup. Motown beat Rams 24-23 in wild card playoffs last year and expect that such tussle again. Lions in prime time will begin to answer here: How will Detroit, after years as a loser, handle expectations reaching Super Bowl heights?

[Note: Betting lines are courtesy ESPNBet as of Thursday afternoon.]

HOW THE DARTS LANDED

It was 1991 when we launched our NFL picks (the “Friday Page”) in the Miami Herald. Nirvana had just released its seminal Nevermind album, Tom Brady was a 14-year-old kid banging around San Mateo, and current Miami Hurricanes tight end Cam McCormick was a college freshman. Thirty-four seasons later, welcome back to longtime readers and welcome aboard to newbies. We like to have fun here but take our picks seriously, and we’re determined to bounce back big and get back on the right side of .500 against the Evil Betting Line after last year’s narrow miss. So let’s go! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was Ravens (+3) over @Chiefs, 23-20. Find that separate full prediction capsule here.] Most recent results

Final 2023: 171-101, .629 overall; 130-133-9, .495 vs. spread

Final 2022: 162-107-2, .602 overall; 121-143-7, .459 vs. spread

Final 2021: 172-99-1, .635 overall; 140-130-2, .519 vs. spread

Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread