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'My dad died from coronavirus and I might have brought it home to him'

Omar Islam, 25, from Newham in east London, lost his father to COVID-19 two weeks ago. Last Friday, his aunt died from the disease.

His father's good friend also died from it, as did another man on Omar's road and an elderly couple two streets away. His uncle is currently battling the virus.

Omar describes plans to slowly lift lockdown restrictions as "stupid", and it's a view shared by many in the community in which he lives.

He told Sky News: "Lifting the restrictions will make it worse, because we haven't done anything about it yet.

"When it first happened, I thought - a couple of hundred have died - it's not my dad, it's not anyone I know. Then all of a sudden it is someone you know. And that's when you realise this is real. This is a serious thing."

Newham has recorded a mortality rate from COVID-19 of 144.3 deaths per 100,000 people - which is the worst in England and Wales, according to the Office of National Statistics. And those living in hard-hit areas like Newham are all too aware of how dangerous this virus is.

Until now the government's consistent messaging has been to stay indoors.

This, and the shocking daily death toll on the news, has been enough to convince most people in the UK to adhere to the guidance.

Far from a lockdown fatigue feared by the government, there has actually been above expected compliance from the British public.

But with the government now considering the process of easing restrictions, Newham is an example of a community that will need some convincing that it is safe to come back out.

Omar's father, Rouful, was a fit and healthy 65-year-old.

He died even though he'd been self-isolating.

Omar lived with his father and worries that because he'd continued working at a vehicle rental company, he might have brought the virus home.

He is currently furloughed and is in no hurry to return to work.

"Where I work you have to interact with members of the public and it's not just the illness you've got to look out for, it's the carriers as well. You would never know who is a carrier. I was still going to work when my dad was at home and I don't know if I brought it home.

"I am scared. I've got an ill mother as well. I don't want to be the one who goes to work and then she catches it off me - and then I've lost another parent."

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We often hear about the science behind the spread of the virus. No small part of that is the behaviour of us humans, much of which is determined by what's going on in our heads.

The government has used a rational fear to successfully convince society to lockdown. But it is now turning to behavioural scientists to examine how to change that messaging when the time comes to ease measures and get the economy moving again.

"It's a big problem", says Professor Peter Ayton from the department of psychology at the University of London.

"At the moment the messaging is all about how essential it is to stay at home, and if there is a change in that policy what people need to know is why has that changed?"

The government has set out five tests for lifting restrictions.

  1. Ensuring the NHS can cope

  2. A sustained and consistent fall in the death rate

  3. Rate of infection falling to manageable levels

  4. Ensuring tests and PPE meet demand

  5. Being confident adjustments would not provoke a second peak.

But what is the tipping point at which those tests are met? And will the public agree with the government's assessment?

At each phase in which restrictions are eased the messaging may become harder to convey.

Professor Ayton says: "What we have now is a blanket measure where it is pretty simple to understand what you can and can't do - but if there is relaxation contingent and conditional on all sorts of things to do with age or whatever it might be - that's going to be more difficult to get across. People may not understand it - but also, they may not be particularly compliant with it, because they may feel there is injustice in the way the variability has been set out."

Much is also based on public faith and trust in the government.

In Newham we met families who would not send children back to school until the virus was completely gone.

One taxi driver said he would not return to work until a vaccine had been found.

Newham delivery driver James Fernandez told Sky News he was "not happy in the slightest" with any of the mooted plans to lift restrictions.

He said: "I don't trust them because they mismanaged the whole policy from the beginning.

"The government said it was okay for the Cheltenham festival to go ahead - and it was okay for Spanish football fans to come to Liverpool when they weren't allowed to go to their own stadium in Madrid. I wouldn't go back to work until I thought it was safe."

Behavioural scientists say a number of factors will feed into people's confidence to emerge from their homes ranging from personal experience to an individual's politics, with studies showing people with more right-wing views being less risk averse.

Professor Ayton says it will be important to get the right messengers as well as the right messages in persuading people that it is safe to return to work and much will depend on the actions taken by the government in showing they have the situation under control.

He said: "With testing and contacting tracing that's going to change the game a little bit - and there is something that can be built out of that, in terms of garnering the trust of people that it is, to a degree, safe for them to proceed out and about. It can't be guesswork if it is going to carry people."

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has also indicated that the use of masks may give people "confidence" to go to work, even though the government previously raised doubt about the effectiveness of masks used by the general public in stemming the spread of the virus.

Behavioural scientists say wearing a mask can be a "social cue" to others that you are behaving responsibly.

All this is signalling that at some point soon the messaging is going to change, perhaps subtly at first, as the government balances the threat of the virus against the threat of lockdown to the economy.

Policy makers are being forced to make high-stake decisions in an uncertain environment and not everyone will agree with them.

But while the lockdown has been a huge inconvenience to the public and economically damaging, it is the easing of these restrictions where big fault-lines may start to appear.