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College Football Playoff: Ranking the potential upsets in the first round

jay busbee
Senior writer
·5 min read

Days before the start of the College Football Playoff, the bracket is almost as remarkable for who’s not in — perennial power Alabama, reigning national champ Michigan — as who is. More teams and more games mean more opportunities for upsets. Since there are “only” 12 teams in this bracket, there’s not really room for Cinderella at this particular Big Dance … but that’s not to say there won’t be chaos.

Sure, the lines on all four of the first-round games favor the higher-seed home teams by at least a touchdown. But as Vanderbilt, Northern Illinois, Georgia Tech and many others demonstrated this season, the line is just a number. There could well be a first-round upset in this year’s opening four games; who might it be? We size up the upset candidates, from most to least likely.

Line: Penn State -8.5

The potential: Yes, SMU saved its season and its playoff berth with a frantic fourth-quarter charge in the ACC championship. But those 15 minutes, not the prior anemic 45, were emblematic of the entire SMU season: all gas, no brakes, no margin for error and no errors made. Don’t let the Mustangs’ last-second entry into the CFP field deceive you; this is a wickedly opportunistic team with the ability to hurl points onto the scoreboard in bunches. Their 38.5 points-per-game scoring average ranks sixth in FBS, and as Clemson can attest, you never really have them down until you kick them out of the game.

Plus, there’s the intangible factor: Penn State is a team of perennial underachievement under James Franklin, so how will the Nittany Lions fare under the kind of put-up-or-shut-up pressure that the CFP will bring? Will the State College crowd suffer from not-again nerves if Penn State gets behind early? The potential drama that looms over the home sideline is too large to ignore in this game, or any possible game going forward.

Line: Notre Dame -7.5

The potential: In one way, Indiana has already won The Battle for the Hoosier State, just by forcing Notre Dame to acknowledge its existence. In another way, Indiana has a massive challenge ahead of it, to outrun all the concerns about the weakness of its schedule. Yes, the Hoosiers cruised on good vibes all season long, but only faced one opponent of note — Ohio State — and that didn’t go so well.

Still, look at the numbers. Yes, per ESPN’s metrics, Indiana’s strength of schedule ranks 67th. But Notre Dame’s is only six spots higher. The Irish beat four top-25 teams … but none ranked higher than 15th. This could come down to a defensive struggle; Indiana ranks second in yards per game allowed, while Notre Dame ranks eighth. Both teams are playing with house money here, given their recent (and, in Indiana’s case, entire) history, but the team with more to lose can often play that much tighter, regardless of what the line says.

COLUMBUS, OH - NOVEMBER 30: Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day during the game against the Michigan Wolverines and the Ohio State Buckeyes on November 30, 2024, at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Ryan Day will be looking to quiet the critics who say he can't coach Ohio State to victory when it matters most. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Line: Ohio State -7.5

The potential: Speaking of more to lose … Ryan Day might just be coaching for his job in these playoffs. Fortunately for him, the team he can’t beat isn’t even in the bracket this year. Also fortunately for him, Ohio State might still be the team to beat in the playoffs, given the level of multimillion-dollar talent across the board for the Buckeyes. Combine that with temperatures expected to be in the 20s in Columbus, and you’ve got a tall order for Tennessee.

The Volunteers on offense live and die by the legs of Dylan Sampson, and both their points-per-game and yards-per-game defensive statistics rank in the top five in FBS. Their problem: Ohio State ranks first in both of those categories. Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava has the big-play potential to rally his crew — witness how he picked apart Alabama in the second half of what proved to be a crucial game for both teams — but he’ll need to start producing earlier than the third quarter for Tennessee to be able to keep up with the Buckeyes. This is the tightest matchup by seeds, but this game could very easily get away from Tennessee in a hurry.

Line: Texas -12

The potential: Underachieving vs. unproven. Texas lost, twice, to the only team of note it played all season. Clemson backed its way into the ACC championship, then took advantage of an uncharacteristically overwhelmed SMU and held on to win a playoff-berth-or-bust game.

The Tigers have been a pale orange shadow of their old national championship-winning selves. Clemson has Cade Klubnik … and not much else. Unfortunately for Clemson, Texas has the nation’s best passing defense, which will stymie the Tigers’ key weapons. If Clemson gets down early, they’ll have a tough time climbing out of the hole. But working in Clemson’s favor is the fact that Klubnik has more big-game potential than Texas’ Quinn Ewers. (The two battled in a high school state championship game in 2020; Klubnik came out on top in that one.) If Clemson can rattle Ewers, and if Texas doesn’t turn to Arch Manning in crisis mode, the Tigers could pull out the biggest upset of the first round. Yes, we’re saying there’s a chance.