College Football Playoff ranking prediction: How the top 10 will look in Tuesday's rankings

Ohio State will drop at least four and as many as six spots in Tuesday night’s College Football Playoff rankings following Saturday’s shocking loss at home to rival Michigan.

The argument for falling only to No. 6 rests on wins against Penn State and Indiana, two teams that should be in the top 10. Few teams can match the quality of these two victories: Oregon beat Boise State and the Buckeyes while Georgia has wins against Clemson, Texas and Tennessee.

At a minimum, Ohio State is a playoff lock with a very good chance of hosting an opponent in the opening round.

One thing to watch on Tuesday night is whether the Buckeyes come in at No. 8, behind Tennessee and SMU. If so, Ohio State could be sent on the road to open the playoff should SMU win the ACC and Boise State lose the Mountain West championship game. That would result in the Pac-12 champion be placed in the top four, bumping the Buckeyes to the No. 9 seed in the bracket.

Here’s how the top 10 of the penultimate playoff rankings should look:

1. Oregon (12-0)

After beating Washington to move to 12-0 for the second time in program history, Oregon is guaranteed to finish no lower than No. 5 in the final rankings. Losing to Penn State in the Big Ten title game would push the Nittany Lions to No. 2 or even No. 1 while the Ducks would be the top-ranked at-large team. Oregon would then meet the Pac-12 champion or Clemson in the opening round and potentially have a rematch with Boise State in the quarterfinals.

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2. Texas (11-1)

Texas overcame a sloppy second half against Texas A&M to score a 17-7 win in the rekindled rivalry. That made the Longhorns a playoff lock regardless of what happens against Georgia in the SEC championship. Beating the Bulldogs to avenge this year’s one loss might paint Texas as the favorite to win it all, however.

3. Penn State (11-1)

Illinois continues to be the only ranked win on Penn State’s schedule. But the Nittany Lions did beat six bowl teams during the regular season, including road wins against West Virginia, Southern California and Minnesota. Beating the Gophers on the road is more impressive than that win against the Illini.

4. Notre Dame (11-1)

The Fighting Irish’s 10-game winning streak since losing to Northern Illinois in September is the best stretch of coach Marcus Freeman’s tenure. The only game during this span decided by fewer than 14 points was a 31-24 win against Louisville.

5. Georgia (10-2)

Beating Georgia Tech in eight overtimes was huge for a long list of reasons, beginning with bragging rights. But a loss to the Yellow Jackets would’ve forced Georgia to beat Texas to earn a playoff bid; the Bulldogs weren’t going to finish in the top 12 of the rankings at 9-4.

6. Ohio State (10-2)

The committee can put the Buckeyes ahead of Tennessee because wins against Indiana and Penn State top the Volunteers’ two best wins against Alabama and Florida. Another reason? The Buckeyes also have better losses: Oregon and Michigan will be seen more favorably than losses to Georgia and Arkansas.

7. Tennessee (10-2)

This is the floor for the Volunteers, who are unlikely to be passed by SMU after both closed November with wins against 6-6 teams. But coming in ahead of Ohio State would put Tennessee in position to be at home in the first round. Those odds drop dramatically if the Buckeyes are in front with both teams done for the regular season.

8. SMU (11-1)

There’s no guarantee that SMU earns an at-large spot with a loss to Clemson in the ACC title game. But the chances are still pretty good the Mustangs can survive a loss on Saturday given how the second tier of the SEC imploded in November. SMU has six wins against bowl teams, led by TCU, Louisville and Duke.

9. Indiana (11-1)

The Hoosiers’ 66-0 win against Purdue put an exclamation point on the best regular season in program history. It also sealed the deal for Indiana to be an at-large team. As with SMU, the Hoosiers are able to overcome an average strength of schedule because teams such as Alabama and Mississippi fell out of the playoff picture.

10. Boise State (11-1)

Boise has already won 11 games for the first time since 2019 and could end up winning more than 12 games for the first time since 2009. The Broncos will be one of the top four seeds and earn a bye into the quarterfinals by beating UNLV to win the Mountain West.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: College Football Playoff ranking prediction: Our top 10 projection