College Football Playoff preview: Penn State faces off with SMU in in first-round matchup

Penn State fell short against Oregon in the Big Ten championship game but lands softly in the College Football Playoff bracket with a relatively easy draw into the national semifinals.

But before booking tickets for the Fiesta Bowl against No. 3 seed Boise State, the Nittany Lions will have to handle ACC runner-up SMU, which edged out Alabama to be the last at-large team in the playoff field.

The Nittany Lions lost just twice this season, both times by a touchdown, to two of the best teams in the country. PSU lost 20-13 to Ohio State during the regular season. SMU also lost twice, both times by a field goal, to a pair of ranked teams: Brigham Young and Clemson.

This game has the potential to be the highest-scoring matchup of the opening round. Led by first-year offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, the Nittany Lions head into the postseason ranked sixth in the Bowl Subdivision in yards per play. The Mustangs rank sixth in scoring at 38.5 points per game.

Here’s what to expect when these two teams meet in Happy Valley on Dec. 21:

When Penn State has the ball

The Nittany Lions have averaged 463.2 yards per game since failing to score an offensive touchdown in the loss to the Buckeyes to open November. The running game has stepped up in this span, cracking the 200-yard four times with 15 touchdowns. Against Oregon, PSU ran for 292 yards on 8.3 yards per carry.

The key will be what Penn State gets out of quarterback Drew Allar, who has had a hit-or-miss second year in the starting lineup. Allar averaged 8.1 yards per throw in Big Ten play, down from 12.6 yards per attempt in non-conference action, and had three touchdowns against three interceptions in three games against ranked competition.

SMU has made 15 interceptions, tied for 13th nationally, but has allowed multiple touchdowns in six games. That includes four touchdowns without an interception in the loss to Clemson.

When SMU has the ball

SMU went 9-1 with quarterback Kevin Jennings as the starter, with his promotion after the loss to Brigham Young a clear turning point in the Mustangs’ season. In addition to his prowess as a passer, Jennings has added 379 rushing yards and five scores on 4.1 yards per carry. His dynamic dual-threat ability will test Penn State’s defense.

The Mustangs’ running game stepped up to help deliver wins against TCU (238 rushing yards) and Duke (204 rushing yards) and remains a key piece of the puzzle on offense. SMU’s 506 carries ranks 17th nationally and the 29 rushing touchdowns is tied for 17th.

But SMU has not faced a defense of the Nittany Lions’ caliber. Penn State ranks eighth in the FBS in scoring defense, ninth in run defense and 16th in pass defense. Oregon was the only opponent to score more than 30 points on the Nittany Lions during the regular season.

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The coaches: James Franklin and Rhett Lashlee

SMU coach Rhett Lashlee has taken over the foundation left by his predecessor, TCU coach Sonny Dykes, and led the program to its most successful season since the 1980s. The Gus Malzahn disciple is a strong candidate for national coach of the year after nearly leading SMU to the ACC title after being picked near the bottom of the standings in the league’s preseason poll.

James Franklin is no stranger to high-profile bowl games, but this marks Penn State’s first appearance in the playoff. With the Nittany Lions expected to beat SMU and then projected to be the favorite against Arizona State in the Peach Bowl, this will be a crucial month for Franklin to finally bring PSU into real contention for the national title.

Prediction

Penn State has the edge in overall talent and what is clearly the better defense, meaning this game will come down to whether SMU can protect Jennings and then win the turnover battle. Having more possessions will negate the Nittany Lions’ advantage and allow the Mustangs to draw them into an up-and-down, high-scoring affair.

Penn State 34, SMU 21

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Penn State-SMU preview for College Football Playoff first round