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College Football Playoff predictions: Projecting who would make 12-team field after Week 7

craig meyer, usa today network
·4 min read

Though it didn’t nearly match the chaos of the previous week, Week 7 of the 2024 college football season gave fans across the country some memorable games.

Oregon knocked off Ohio State 32-31 at home in a thrilling matchup of top-three teams and newly minted Big Ten counterparts. Top-ranked Texas rolled past Oklahoma 34-3 in an unusually lopsided result by the enthralling standards of the Red River Rivalry. Top-10 teams in Penn State, LSU and Tennessee all secured overtime victories, beating USC, Ole Miss and Florida, respectively.

For the sport’s best teams, the results of a given weekend immediately raise questions about how those various winners and losers will impact the race for the College Football Playoff.

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This year, that intrigue and rampant speculation has intensified, with the playoff field expanding to 12 teams. A loss in a given week doesn’t doom a team’s postseason dreams; it just makes them a little more challenging to reach.

How did Week 7 shape the larger playoff picture? Here’s a look at what the 12-team College Football Playoff field would look like if the season ended today:

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College Football Playoff predictions after Week 7

Seedings are based on this week's US LBM Coaches Poll and rules of the College Football Playoff format:

  1. Texas*

  2. Oregon*

  3. Miami*

  4. Iowa State*

  5. Penn State

  6. Georgia

  7. Ohio State

  8. Alabama

  9. LSU

  10. Clemson

  11. Tennessee

  12. Boise State

* Receives first-round bye

Oregon’s win against Ohio State shakes up the quartet of teams receiving first-round byes by virtue of being the four highest-rated conference champions, with the Ducks snatching what had been the Buckeyes’ place at No. 2. Ohio State, which fell to No. 5 in the Coaches Poll, remains firmly in the field, with the No. 7 seed.

LSU’s 29-26 win against rival Ole Miss bumped the Tigers up two spots to No. 9 while dropping the Rebels from the projected field entirely. Ole Miss was replaced by Clemson, which slides in at No. 10 ahead of Tennessee, which moves back one spot following an underwhelming home win against a bad Gators team.

The field is rounded out by Boise State, which is the highest-rated conference champion from outside of the Power Four leagues, at No. 19 in the most recent Coaches Poll. The Broncos come in ahead of Notre Dame, which is eight spots higher than it in the Coaches Poll, but that can’t make the field as a conference champion, as the Fighting Irish are an independent program.

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Projected CFP bracket after Week 7

With triple the number of teams from its prior model, the College Football Playoff bracket will take on a radically different form beginning with the 2024 season. The four highest-rated conference champions get a first-round bye.

First-round games will be played not at neutral sites, but at the home venue of the higher seed of a given matchup. From there, the games will be at various neutral sites that play host to the New Year’s Six bowls until the national championship, which will be held at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

Using this week’s Coaches Poll as a guide, here’s a look at what that bracket would look like if the season ended today:

  • No. 5 Penn State vs. No. 12 Boise State

  • No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 11 Tennessee

  • No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Clemson

  • No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 9 LSU

In this scenario, the Alabama-LSU winner would advance to play Texas, the Ohio State-Clemson winner would face Oregon, the Georgia-Tennessee victor would take on Miami and the Penn State-Boise State winner would square off against Iowa State.

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College Football Playoff dates, schedule

Here is the full list of dates for the 2025 College Football Playoff:

  • First round: Friday, Dec. 20-Saturday, Dec. 21

  • Quarterfinals: Tuesday, Dec. 31-Wednesday, Jan. 1

  • Semifinals: Thursday, Jan. 9-Friday, Jan. 10

  • National championship: Monday, Jan. 20

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: CFP predictions: Updated 12-team bracket projections after Week 7