College football picks: No. 11 Iowa St, No. 13 Indiana need wins for best starts in their histories

Indiana and Iowa State are on the cusp of making history this week, each using a very different roster-building strategy to enter November unbeaten.

The 13th-ranked Hoosiers would be 9-0 for the first time with a win at Michigan State on Saturday. The 11th-ranked Cyclones would be 8-0 for the first time with a home win against Texas Tech.

First-year Indiana coach Curt Cignetti is all in on the new way of team building, remaking a program that was 3-9 team in 2023 with a flood of transfers who have helped produce double-digit wins in every game. Of the Hoosiers' 22 regular starters, seven arrived with Cignetti from James Madison and nine came from other schools. Of the six holdovers, half are offensive linemen.

Ninth-year Iowa State coach Matt Campbell is old school. He prioritizes high school recruiting and developing players in his system. He's had few, if any, impact players transfer out. Of regular starters, 20 of 22 were on the roster of the 2023 team that went 7-6.

Iowa State and Indiana both have realistic hopes of making the 12-team College Football Playoff. That would have been almost unthinkable entering the season for two programs that have traditionally languished near the bottom of major college football.

The Cyclones are BetMGM Sportsbook's 11th betting choice to make the playoff at 5-7 odds. The Hoosiers are 15th at 11-10.

The picks, with all games Saturday unless noted, and lines from BetMGM Sportsbook:

No. 1 Oregon at Michigan (plus 14 1/2)

Dillon Gabriel and the Ducks have blown out five of their last six opponents — Ohio State the exception — and on paper could do the same against the Wolverines. Michigan's dropoff from its national championship season has been more than expected. That doesn't mean the Wolverines can't make this a four-quarter game in the Big House.

Pick: Oregon 31-21.

No. 2 Georgia (minus 16 1/2) vs. Florida

Florida has won three of four entering the game in Jacksonville, and freshmen DJ “Big Play” Lagway has suddenly made the Gators explosive. Bulldogs have beaten Florida by 20-plus points three straight years, and they've had an extra week to come down from their win at then-No. 1 Texas.

Pick: Georgia 40-20.

No. 4 Ohio State (minus 3 1/2) at Penn State

The Buckeyes stewed over their one-point loss to Oregon for two weeks and then turned in an uninspired performance in a four-point home win over Nebraska. But they've got Penn State's number — seven straight wins in the series — and the Nittany Lions' QB situation is uncertain.

Pick: Ohio State 28-24.

Duke at Miami (minus 20 1/2)

First-year Duke coach Manny Diaz returns to Miami, where he coached from 2019-21. The Blue Demons also bring the baggage from their crushing overtime loss to SMU. Miami hasn't scored fewer than 36 points and its defense has allowed just six touchdowns in four home games.

Pick: Miami 40-17.

Kentucky at No. 7 Tennessee (minus 16 1/2)

Kentucky has lost three straight, is averaging 13.5 points per game in SEC games and has won in Knoxville just once since 1985. The Wildcats have a shaky quarterback situation, too. Tennessee is coming off an open date following its win over Alabama.

Pick: Tennessee 28-10.

No. 10 Texas A&M at South Carolina (plus 2 1/2)

Mike Elko has kept the 12th Man in suspense about who will be his starting quarterback. Freshman Marcel Reed replaced an ineffective Conner Weigman and was the hero of the Aggies' win over LSU. The Gamecocks already have pushed LSU and Alabama to the limit. Time for a breakthrough?

Pick: South Carolina 29-24.

Texas Tech (plus 14 1/2) at No. 11 Iowa State

Texas Tech has lost two straight since a 5-1 start and gives up lots of yards and points. If Iowa State can keep Big 12 rushing leader Tahj Brooks under control — not a small ask of a run defense that has struggled — the Cyclones should have their first 8-0 start in program history.

Pick: Iowa State 37-21.

Louisville at No. 11 Clemson (minus 10 1/2)

Clemson has won 22 straight night games in Death Valley, is 8-0 all-time against Louisville and has scored 40-plus points five times this season. QB Tyler Shough keeps putting up big numbers despite the Cardinals being short-handed at receiver and tight end.

Pick: Clemson 44-31.

No. 13 Indiana (minus 7 1/2) at Michigan State

The unbeaten Hoosiers hope to have QB Kurtis Rourke back from his thumb injury for the battle for the Old Brass Spittoon. It shouldn't be a problem if they have to lean on the run like they did against Washington. They've beaten every opponent by double digits. Why stop now?

Pick: Indiana 35-14.

San Diego State (plus 23 1/2) at No. 15 Boise State

Ashton Jeanty, the national rushing leader, and San Diego State's Marquez Cooper are the Mountain West's top two running backs. The Broncos are keeping their eye on the prize as the Group of Five favorite for the CFP. San Diego State's streak of four games decided by three points or less ends Friday.

Pick: Boise Sate 38-17.

No. 17 Kansas State (minus 12 1/2) at Houston

Houston has won of two of its last three and is playing cleaner football than it did the first five games. The Wildcats have been a bit uneven on the road and are coming off a scare against rival Kansas. Houston's defense is sound. Its offense usually isn't.

Pick: Kansas State 28-10.

No. 18 Pittsburgh at No. 20 SMU (minus 7 1/2)

No one would have predicted these two teams would go into November unbeaten in ACC play. Both are coming off weird wins — Pitt had three pick-6s against Syracuse and SMU committed six turnovers and had no takeaways against Duke. Both have banged-up quarterbacks.

Pick: SMU 34-24.

No. 19 Mississippi (minus 7) at Arkansas

SEC passing leader Jaxson Dart completed nine passes of 15-plus yards in an unexpected tussle with Oklahoma last week, and that was without injured star WR Tre Harris. The Rebels expect to have Harris back. The Razorbacks gave up a season-high 471 yards in their win over Mississippi State.

Pick: Mississippi 30-21.

Air Force at No. 21 Army (minus 22 1/2)

Army is on the nation's longest active win streak (11 games) as it begins its defense of the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy. Air Force was 8-0 and ranked No. 17 when the teams met in Denver last year. Army's 23-3 win began the Falcons' current 10-losses-in-12-games stretch.

Pick: Army 48-14.

Minnesota at No. 24 Illinois (plus 3)

Illinois is in the Top 25 for a seventh straight week despite getting pounded at No. 1 Oregon last week. Minnesota is on a bit of a roll right now and wants payback. The Illini won 27-26 in Minneapolis last year when backup QB John Paddock relieved an injured Luke Altmyer to lead an 84-yard game-winning drive in the final minute.

Pick: Minnesota 31-30.

AP predictions scorecard

Last week: Straight-up — 12-3; Against spread — 6-9.

Season: Straight-up — 139-36; Against spread — 90-84.

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Eric Olson, The Associated Press