College football picks: Never mind Hoosiers, Ohio State has lots riding on showdown at the Horseshoe

Much has been made about the stakes for unbeaten Indiana in Saturday's top-five showdown with Ohio State. Don't forget what this game means for the Buckeyes.

Ohio State hasn't won a Big Ten championship, let alone play in the title game, since 2020.

Ohio State has had its last three seasons ruined by Michigan in the final regular-season game. Imagine the noise in Columbus if Indiana is the spoiler this year.

With a one-point loss at Oregon on this season's ledger, the Buckeyes had no margin for error in the games that followed against Nebraska, Penn State, Purdue and Northwestern.

“You lose any of those games and you're out," Day said.

Now comes Indiana, a team that hasn’t beaten Ohio State since 1988. This, however, isn't your father's Indiana. First-year coach Curt Cignetti has led what could be a turnaround for the ages if the Hoosiers beat Ohio State.

“Yeah," Day said, "our guys are fired up for this one and know this is a must win for us."

Win Saturday, and “The Game” against Michigan next week becomes the next must-win game.

The picks for FBS vs. FBS games, with Associated Press Top 25 rankings and lines from BetMGM Sportsbook:

No. 5 Indiana (plus 13 1/2) at No. 2 Ohio State

It's put-up-or-shut-up time for Indiana. Except for their last game against Michigan, the unbeaten Hoosiers have breezed through a lineup of unranked opponents.

Pick: Ohio State 31-24.

Kentucky at No. 3 Texas (minus 20 1/2)

Texas should be careful to not look ahead to next week's showdown with No. 15 Texas A&M. Kentucky has played its best games against top-10 opponents.

Pick: Texas 35-10.

No. 4 Penn State (minus 11 1/2) at Minnesota

The forecast calls for it to be cloudy and in the 30s, a perfect day for November football in the Big Ten. Minnesota struggles to run the ball, and Penn State is one of the best at stopping it.

Pick: Penn State 28-17.

No. 18 Army vs. No. 6 Notre Dame (minus 14 1/2)

Notre Dame already burst Navy's bubble when the Midshipmen were unbeaten. The Irish probably will do the same to undefeated Army, which has played a pillow-soft schedule.

Pick: Notre Dame 34-19.

No. 7 Alabama (minus 13 1/2) at Oklahoma

This is the teams' first meeting since 'Bama beat the Sooners in a 2018 playoff semifinal. The Crimson Tide seem to have gotten their act together since losing to Tennessee a month ago.

Pick: Alabama 27-10.

Massachusetts at No. 8 Georgia (minus 42 1/2)

UMass fired Don Brown on Monday, and interim coach Shane Montgomery's first assignment is to play the Bulldogs. Godspeed, Shane.

Pick: Georgia 52-7.

No. 9 Mississippi (minus 10) at Florida

Mississippi's Jaxson Dart, averaging an SEC-leading 341 yards passing, needs 373 to break Eli Manning's school career record.

Pick: Mississippi 42-21.

UTEP at No. 10 Tennessee (minus 41 1/2)

The stage is set for the Vols' Dylan Sampson, who has nine 100-yard rushing games, to put up some more big numbers.

Pick: Tennessee 52-6.

Wake Forest (plus 24 1/2) at No. 11 Miami

Miami is playing for a spot in the ACC championship game and can't afford to slip here. For the Demon Deacons, a loss ends their bowl hopes.

Pick: Miami 41-20.

No. 12 Boise State (minus 22 1/2) at Wyoming

Ashton Jeanty needs 107 yards to hit 2,000 for the season, which should be no problem against a Wyoming defense that's allowed a combined 660 on the ground the last two games.

Pick: Boise State 44-17.

No. 13 SMU (minus 9 1/2) at Virginia

SMU can lock up a spot in the ACC title game. Virginia has a quarterback issue after Anthony Colandrea was benched for the second half against Notre Dame last week.

Pick: SMU 37-24.

No. 14 BYU at No. 21 Arizona State (minus 3)

The Sun Devils, picked last in the 16-team Big 12, would replace BYU on the inside track to the conference championship game with a victory.

Pick: Arizona State 27-21.

No. 15 Texas A&M (minus 2 1/2) at Auburn

Aggies have lost 11 of their last 13 road games, but they should be laser-focused for this one. They control their own destiny for a spot in the SEC title game and College Football Playoff.

Pick: Texas A&M 30-23.

No. 16 Colorado (minus 2 1/2) vs. Kansas

The Buffaloes are playing their best football late in the season, and so are the Jayhawks. The difference: Colorado has Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter.

Pick: Colorado 36-27.

No. 22 Iowa State at Utah (plus 7 1/2)

For all their struggles, the Utes still have one of the best defenses in the Big 12. They can win this one if they find a semblance of a running game against one of the league's worst rushing defenses.

Pick: Utah 21-17.

No. 23 UNLV (minus 7 1/2) at San Jose State

Rebels have won a school-record seven straight road games, and their Mountain West championship hopes hang in the balance.

Pick: UNLV 33-23.

No. 24 Illinois (minus 1) at Rutgers

Illini have won eight one-score games over two seasons. This could be another one. Rutgers appears to have shaken its midseason slump.

Pick: Illinois 28-24.

No. 25 Washington State (minus 12 1/2) at Oregon State

It's the Pac-12 Bowl with the league's two remaining members playing for bragging rights. Cougars are coming off surprising loss at New Mexico and Beavers a shutout loss at Air Force.

Pick: Washington State 38-17.

AP predictions scorecard

Last week: Straight-up — 14-4; Against spread — 8-10.

Season: Straight-up — 180-47; Against spread — 114-112.

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Eric Olson, The Associated Press