College football picks for Colorado at KU, Cincinnati at K-State and more in Week 13

Only two weeks remain in the regular season.

Let’s see if we can find some more winners before the College Football Playoff arrives.

Colorado (-2.5) at Kansas

This matchup feels like an unstoppable object vs. an immovable force.

The Buffaloes have covered the spread in eight straight games. The Jayhawks have covered the spread in four straight.

Something has got to give this weekend at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. It’s hard to predict what will happen, because both teams have been playing at a high level of late. Colorado has won four consecutive games to enter the College Football Playoff discussion. Kansas has won back-to-back games against ranked opponents to remain within reach of bowl eligibility.

The Jayhawks should be able to find success on the ground behind Jalon Daniels and Devin Neal. But the Buffaloes should be able to throw on the Kansas secondary.

I lean toward Colorado here, because Deion Sanders has more high end talent with Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter than Lance Leipold has at Kansas. But it’s a tough call. If this game were in Lawrence, I would favor the Jayhawks.

Missouri (-7.5) at Mississippi State

This spread feels a bit too low. Mississippi State was unable to cover this number in home games against Arkansas, Texas A&M, Florida and Toledo. The Bulldogs did pummel Massachusetts and Eastern Kentucky in Starkville, though.

It’s not hard to see the Tigers winning this game by double digits. Then again, Missouri hasn’t won an SEC road game this season and Mississippi State is coming off an idle week. Maybe this will be a close affair.

Cincinnati (+8.5) at Kansas State

The Wildcats are a difficult team to project at the moment.

Chris Klieman has been dealing with personal matters that have distracted him from football over the past few weeks.

The Wildcats have lost consecutive games against Houston and Arizona State; K-State bottomed out on offense in those games and failed to score 20 points in both. The Wildcats also lost outright as big favorites in those games. That might not be a good omen for this week.

With that in mind, this might be a good opportunity to fade the Wildcats. But it’s worth noting that Cincinnati struggles to defend the run. If DJ Giddens and Avery Johnson can get their mojo back on Saturday, perhaps K-State will get back to its winning ways.

My favorite bets

Baylor (-7.5) at Houston: The Bears are an automatic bet for me right now. Dave Aranda’s team has won and covered the spread in four straight games. Baylor has averaged 45.8 points per game during its hot streak. No one in the Big 12 is playing better football than this team. I don’t see Baylor’s offense cooling down enough for Houston to stay competitive. Pick: Baylor.

Army (+14) vs. Notre Dame: It’s been a great season for Army, but the good vibes are about to end. The Black Knights haven’t played a quality team all season, and that will show when they take on Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish know how to defend the triple option, as they pummeled Navy 51-14 this season and 42-3 last season. I am expecting a similar result here, but we are getting a relatively low spread because Army is undefeated. The talent discrepancy between these teams is enormous. Pick: Notre Dame.

Iowa State (-7.5) at Utah: The Cyclones have been here before. Iowa State traveled to BYU last November for a night game in the Rocky Mountains and won going away 45-13. I won’t be surprised if they cruise to another easy win against a team that has nothing to play for. Pick: Iowa State.

Penn State (-12.5) at Minnesota: The Gophers have been a profitable underdog this season, and I expect that trend to continue. Penn State is a good team, but Minnesota is coming off a bye week here. It might have a few tricks up its sleeve for a game of this magnitude. Pick: Minnesota.

UCF (-3) at West Virginia: I like the Mountaineers to win outright. You can read why below in the upset section. But I obviously like them against the spread, too. Pick: West Virginia.

Last Week: 3-2

Season: 35-25 (+7.7 units)

Upset pick of the week

UCF at West Virginia (+150): Fear not. I am not picking Houston to win as an underdog this week. The Cougars have been permanently blacklisted from this section. I tried backing Willie Fritz’s team three different times this season and I looked like an idiot all three times. Losing big at Arizona was the final straw.

Let’s give West Virginia a try instead. I’m lower than some on WVU, but even I think the Mountaineers should be favored in this game. West Virginia has a strong run defense, which should negate UCF running back RJ Harvey. On the flip side, West Virginia quarterback Garrett Greene should be able to run on the Knights.

Weather forecasts are calling for rain and temperatures in the 40s on Saturday. That sounds like a game West Virginia should win at home against a visiting team from Orlando. Pick: West Virginia.

Season: 3-8 (-2.9 units)

Other lines worth considering

Alabama (-13.5) at Oklahoma: The Crimson Tide have looked like the best team in the country ever since Jalen Milroe got healthy. Lean: Alabama.

Arizona (+11.5) at TCU: I don’t see many stops in this game. Lean: Over 59.5.

Indiana (+12.5) at Ohio State: The Hoosiers could be in for a rude awakening when they hit the road for their first true test of the season against the Buckeyes. Lean: Ohio State.

BYU (+3.5) at Arizona State: The Cougars have been road underdogs three times this season. They won all three games. Lean: BYU.

Texas Tech (-3.5) at Oklahoma State: I usually bet on the Cowboys whenever they are coming off a bye week, but Oklahoma State may be on quit watch as the season winds down. Lean: Texas Tech.