College football odds, picks and predictions for K-State, Mizzou and Big 12 in Week 7

There are only five teams left in all of college football that have successfully covered the spread in every game this season.

All hail Army, BYU, Eastern Michigan, Marshall and Pittsburgh!

Sadly, yours truly hasn’t won much money betting on those teams. Army is the only one I’ve backed with a favorite bet thus far

Nevertheless, another 4-1 week has us riding a profitable wave of momentum. Let’s see if we can keep finding winners.

Kansas State (-4) at Colorado

This line got up as high as 5.5 points in favor of K-State, but it has been dropping ever since. It has been hard to back the Wildcats as road favorites lately. They have failed to cover the spread in five straight games as a road favorite, going 0-2 this season and 0-3 last season. K-State lost three of those games outright. Chris Klieman’s team has gone 3-4 in its past seven road games.

Will those trends continue at Colorado? The Wildcats should be able to run the ball effectively against the Buffaloes, who have allowed 780 yards and seven touchdowns rushing this season. But Shedeur Sanders and Colorado should be able to throw against a K-State defense that is allowing 7.7 yards per attempt.

If those strengths balance out and this is a close game, it’s probably smart to back the home team.

Missouri (-27.5) at UMass

Why in the world is Missouri playing a road game against UMass? Eli Drinkwitz, perhaps jokingly, said he has always dreamed of playing a road game against the Minutemen. But that can’t possibly be the real reason. You don’t often see a low-major independent host a SEC team. This game is bizarre.

But I digress. This game is all about how the Tigers respond to a humiliating loss at Texas A&M. Maybe they will come out angry and whip up on UMass. Or maybe they won’t invest much in this game and UMass can hang around.

My favorite bets

Iowa State (-2.5) at West Virginia: The Mountaineers are getting too much love for beating up on Oklahoma State. Sure, they looked great while crushing the Cowboys 38-14. But they ran all over the worst rushing defense in the Big 12. Oklahoma State has allowed 1,410 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground this season. Things might not be so easy against an Iowa State run defense that has only allowed 690 yards and two touchdowns on the season. Pick: Iowa State.

Syracuse (-4.5) at North Carolina State: This feels like a good opportunity to fade the Wolfpack, who have taken a big step back this season. Their only wins have come against Western Carolina, Northern Illinois and Louisiana Tech. NC State will likely start a freshman quarterback this week. Syracuse, which is off to a 4-1 start, should be favored by more than a touchdown. Pick: Syracuse.

Penn State (-5.5) at USC: The Trojans have already lost a pair of Big Ten games, which has led some to believe they aren’t ready for their new conference. But both of their losses came down to the final play on the road. Maybe they can win a close game at home now that Penn State is coming to town. In any case, another close loss could be enough for a cover in this situation. Pick: USC.

Ohio State (-3) at Oregon: The Ducks haven’t looked as good as advertised in any game this season. Neither has quarterback Dillon Gabriel. That could finally catch up to them when they host one of the most talented rosters in the country this weekend. Pick: Ohio State.

Cincinnati (+3.5) at UCF: I am admittedly not a fan of the Bearcats, but no one has beaten Cincinnati by more than a field goal in any game this season. I don’t see that changing against UCF. The Knights are disarray after a pair of ugly losses to Colorado and Florida. Pick: Cincinnati.

Last Week: 4-1

Season: 18-12 (+4.8 units)

Upset pick of the week

Oklahoma (+440) vs. Texas: I’m throwing caution to the wind here. Even though it’s scary to bet against the No. 1 team in the country, especially without getting any points, I think the Sooners have a shot at winning this game. Oklahoma and Texas are both coming off a bye week. Quinn Ewers could be rusty as he returns to quarterback for the Longhorns. Brent Venables may have a few surprises up his sleeve. Weird things tend to happen in this rivalry. Let’s take a big swing and see if we can hit a big payday. Pick: Oklahoma.

Season: 3-3 (+2.1 units)

Other lines worth considering

Utah (6.5) at Arizona State: Nobody knows if Cam Rasing will play at quarterback for Utah in this game. But if he misses another week this could be an easy number for Arizona State to cover. Lean: Arizona State.

Washington State (-3.5) at Fresno State: I expected this game to be closer to a pick than a field goal. There is value here on Fresno State as the Bulldogs are playing at home and off a bye week. Lean: Fresno State.

Arizona (+5.5) at BYU: The Wildcats were small favorites on the lookahead line for this game. Then they lost a close contest to Texas Tech and they spread change by seven points. That could be too much of an overreaction. Lean: Arizona.

Ole Miss (-3.5) at LSU: Should the Tigers really be underdogs for a home night game?. Lean: LSU.

Washington (+3) at Iowa: I have some concerns about the Huskies playing a road game at 9 a.m. pacific time. But they are the better team in this matchup. Lean: Washington.