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College football betting: Public, sharps aligned on UCLA as underdog at Oregon

Pete Truszkowski
·4 min read

It's somehow already late October and over half of the college football regular season is in the books. While the Week 8 slate might not have the same intrigue as last week, there's still five ranked matchups on the schedule. What does the betting action look like ahead of the weekend?

Public, sharps aligned on UCLA

One of the best games of the weekend is in Eugene where Oregon is a 6-point favorite against an undefeated UCLA team.

UCLA is coming off a bye week. Prior to that, they defeated Washington and Utah in back-to-back weeks. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is a darkhorse Heisman candidate (25-to-1 odds at BetMGM). At this point, Chip Kelly's Bruins might be the Pac-12's best (and perhaps only) hope at a playoff spot. A win on Saturday would go a long way. However, Oregon has won five straight games after being demolished in Week 1 by Georgia. They are averaging nearly 50 points per game over that span with Bo Nix under center.

The Ducks are a 6-point home favorite on Saturday, but most of the action is backing the underdog. No team on Saturday's slate has received more money backing them than UCLA, as 69% of the action is backing the Bruins to cover the spread. “UCLA has been a favorite for both the public and the sharps so far, despite being on the road in Eugene," said Seamus Magee, a sports trader at BetMGM. Additionally, 87% of the moneyline bets are on UCLA to win outright at +180.

Bettors are also expecting a high scoring game. Currently at BetMGM, 61% of the money is on the game to go over 70.5 total points. It's currently the most bet over in terms of quantity of bets on Saturday's slate.

PASADENA, CA - OCTOBER 8: UCLA Bruins quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson (1) celebrates his touchdown pass during the college football game between the Utah Utes and the UCLA Bruins on Saturday, October 8, 2022 at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA. (Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Bettors love UCLA as an underdog in Week 8 of the college football season. (Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) (Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Public likes Ole Miss, but sharps like LSU

While the public and sharp bettors are aligned on UCLA, that's not quite the case when it comes to the LSU-Ole Miss matchup. No game on Saturday's schedule has received more betting action than this SEC matchup, but the action is split.

Ole Miss opened as a 1-point road favorite in this matchup earlier in the week, but currently, it's LSU who is a 2-point favorite at home. The line has moved three points and the favorite has flipped despite the fact that 56% of bets are on Ole Miss. To highlight the discrepancy, Ole Miss +2 is the third most popular bet according to number of wagers placed, but LSU -2 is the second most popular bet according to number of dollars wagered. According to Magee, "LSU vs Ole Miss looks to be one of our most bet games this weekend with the sharps loving the Tigers.”

Public bettors like the undefeated Rebels in an underdog role. Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss is 7-0 entering the matchup, meanwhile LSU has dropped games to Florida State and Tennessee. It's worth noting that sharps also liked LSU as a short home underdog against Tennessee a few weeks ago, but the Vols ended up rolling the Tigers in blowout fashion.

Bettors expect points to be at a premium. Currently at BetMGM, 78% of bets and 69% of the money is on this game to go under 66.5-points. Despite bettors lining up to bet the under, the total is up two points from the opening number of 64.5 points.

Other notable action

What are some other popular bets on Saturday's slate?

  • Oklahoma State is a 6-point home underdog against Texas this weekend, and 77% of bets are backing the home underdog. There's questions about the status of Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders. Even if he suits up, he's expected to be impacted by a shoulder injury.

  • Bettors like Wake Forest to roll Boston College. Currently at BetMGM, 81% of bets and 89% of the money is on the Demon Deacons as a 20.5-point favorite.

  • In terms of number of bets, the action is split on Alabama-Mississippi State. Just 53% of bets are on the Tide to cover as a 21-point favorite. However, 72% of the money is backing Alabama which means a lot of the bigger bets are backing the Tide.

  • Bettors like Penn State to rebound this week against Minnesota as a 4.5-point home favorite. Overall, 78% of bets are on the Nittany Lions as a home favorite. An interesting note: in four of the last five seasons, Penn State has followed up their first loss of the season with another loss.

  • Kansas State is a popular underdog this weekend at TCU. Currently at BetMGM, 63% of bets and 79% of the money is on the Wildcats as a 3.5-point underdog. The line opened at 5.5-points earlier this week.