College football betting preview: KU, K-State, Mizzou all massive favorites in Week 1

The first week of college football hits different.

It’s a special time of year when a chill enters the air, marching bands play catchy tunes, fans fire up their grills at tailgates ... and bettors try to decide if they can trust a team from the Big 12 or SEC to dismantle an overmatched FCS foe by 50 points.

Fans in this region can especially relate to that last item. Kansas, K-State and Missouri all enter Week 1 as massive favorites against teams that most of their casual supporters have never heard of before.

Take a look:

• The Jayhawks are favored by 44.5 against Lindenwood.

• The Tigers are favored by 47.5 against Murray State.

• The Wildcats are favored by 37.5 against Tennessee-Martin.

The oddsmakers expect all three of our “local” teams to start the season with easy victories. But can KU, K-State and Mizzou really win by those margins?

Lindenwood (+44.5) at Kansas

The Jayhawks will open their season at “home” against a FCS opponent inside Children’s Mercy Park. The unfamiliar surroundings could make it more difficult for KU to run up the score in Week 1. Then again, Lindenwood shouldn’t be able to put up much of a fight. The final score will likely depend on how motivated the Jayhawks are to score in the second half.

One thing to remember: KU is breaking in a new offensive coordinator who may not want to show much before a game at Illinois in Week 2. Lance Leipold’s team didn’t cover this number last year against Missouri State (48-17) but did the year before against Tennessee Tech (56-10).

Murray State (+47.5) at Missouri

This might be a good opportunity to back Murray State. Missouri hasn’t covered a number this large since Eli Drinkwitz took over as coach, and the Tigers started off slow last season with closer-than-expected wins against South Dakota and Middle Tennessee State.

Then again, this could be the best team he has coached in Columbia. Perhaps they will win with style points in Week 1.

UT Martin (+37.5) at Kansas State

This line opened at 36 and immediately jumped to 37.5. K-State covered this number against Southeast Missouri State (45-0) last season, but the Wildcats were less impressive in their other recent games against FCS foes Nichols (49-14) and Southern Illinois (31-23).

My gut says K-State will keep its foot on the gas and try to score with backups in the second half rather than sit on the ball, even with Tulane on deck.

My favorite bets

Temple (+42.5) at Oklahoma: Brent Venables likes to win by the biggest margin possible in his first game. Oklahoma beat Arkansas State 73-0 last season and UTEP 45-13 the year before that. The Sooners won and covered both games. I am expecting more of the same against Temple, which could be one of the worst teams in college football this season. Pick: Oklahoma.

TCU (-10) at Stanford: The Horned Frogs finished off last season by losing six of their final eight games. I’m skeptical they have improved enough since then to go on the road and beat a power-conference team by double digits. Pick: Stanford.

Georgia State (+21.5) at Georgia Tech: I admittedly don’t know much about Georgia State, but this feels like a perfect time to fade Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are coming off one of their biggest victories in recent memory against Florida State. And that game was played in Ireland. Not only are they dealing with jet lag, they are due for a letdown. Pick: Georgia State.

Nevada (+8.5) at Troy: Sure, the Wolf Pack looked much better than expected last weekend in a near upset against SMU. But I never trust a team that hangs its hat on a loss. That game was also played in unusually chilly conditions in Reno. Things will heat up for them this weekend, and I expect Troy to take advantage. We are also getting some free points here. Troy was favored by double digits before Nevada played its first game. Pick: Troy.

Penn State (-8) at West Virginia: I am lower than most on West Virginia. The Mountaineers overachieved last season against an easy schedule. They are due for regression this season, starting off in Week 1 against the Nittany Lions. Pick: Penn State.

Upset pick of the week

USC (+165) vs. LSU: The Trojans lost Caleb Williams to the NFL, but they may have found a defense. I’m willing to take a chance on Lincoln Riley and his more balanced approach to football against LSU in one of the few must-see games of the weekend.

Other lines worth considering

UTEP (+27.5) at Nebraska: Matt Rhule typically has success in Year 2. The Cornhuskers might be ready to win big against a pushover like UTEP, which is breaking in a new coach. Lean: Nebraska.

New Mexico (+31.5) at Arizona: The Lobos are coming off an emotional home loss to Montana State. I doubt that properly prepared them for Arizona’s prolific offense. Lean: Arizona.

North Dakota State (+9.5) at Colorado: I’m no fan of Colorado, but North Dakota State is no longer the FCS juggernaut it once was. I think the Bison are getting too much love here. Lean: Colorado.

UCLA (-14.5) at Hawaii: I wouldn’t be shocked if the Bruins begin their time in the Big Ten with a loss on the islands. Lean: Hawaii.

Western Kentucky (+31.5) at Alabama: You usually have to lay nearly 50 points if you want to bet on Alabama in this situation. Western Kentucky is no pushover and Nick Saban is retired. But I still see value on the Crimson Tide. Lean: Alabama.