College football betting preview: Can KU, K-State cover the spread as road favorites?

We got off to a profitable start to the college football season.

Not only did our favorite bets go 3-2 in Week 1, USC came through for us as an upset pick.

But, much like all of the power-conference teams that began the year by beating up on weak opponents, those results won’t mean much if we don’t keep on winning.

Week 2 promises to be more interesting, especially with Kansas and K-State hitting the road for games against solid competition.

Kansas (-5.5) at Illinois

This line opened as high as seven by some oddsmakers, but it was quickly bet down below six.

That is a blessing for anyone looking to back the Kansas Jayhawks, because all they need to do is win this game by a touchdown.

The Jayhawks raced to a 34-7 lead over the Fighting Illini last season, so the final score of 34-23 was a bit misleading. Will a change of venue make the rematch a closer game? Maybe. But Kansas didn’t show much of anything in its opening win against Lindenwood, which should give Lance Leipold a bigger coaching advantage than usual over Bret Bielema.

Buffalo (+34.5) at Missouri

The Tigers got off to a slow start last season and were unable to cover the spread in guarantee games against South Dakota and Middle Tennessee State. But Missouri kicked things into high gear for its first game of 2024 and shellacked Murray State 51-0.

If Eli Drinkwitz is going to keep his foot on the gas, anything under 35 points seems like a reasonable number for the Tigers in Week 2 against Buffalo.

Kansas State (-10.5) at Tulane

The last time these teams met, K-State was favored by 13.5 and lost outright at home with Tulane pulling off what seemed like a stunning 17-10 upset. But that score felt much more understandable by the end of the season when the Green Wave were beating USC in the Cotton Bowl.

In any case, the Wildcats remember that game and want to exact some revenge on Tulane this week. K-State won its opening game 41-6 against Tennessee-Martin and Tulane is coming off a 52-0 victory over Southeastern Louisiana.

This spread feels a bit high given that the Wildcats are on the road and still figuring out a few things on offense. But Chris Klieman’s team could cover the spread if Avery Johnson finds a rhythm.

My favorite bets

Boise State (+18.5) at Oregon: Everyone loves to overreact to the results of Week 1 in college football. But let’s pump the brakes for a moment before we give up on Oregon following a lackluster 24-14 victory over Idaho. Dillon Gabriel completed 41 of 49 passes for 380 yards and two touchdowns. The Ducks left a lot of points on field. I’ve got a feeling Oregon figures some things out against a Boise State team that allowed Georgia Southern to score 45 last week. Pick: Oregon.

Mississippi State (+6.5) at Arizona State: The Sun Devils looked great in their opening game against Wyoming. But so did Mississippi State in its blowout win over Eastern Kentucky. Both of these teams are expected to finish near the bottom of their respective conferences. I view them as equals. With that in mind, I don’t think Arizona State should be favored by nearly a touchdown. Pick: Mississippi State.

Iowa State (+3) at Iowa: I am higher on the Cyclones than most, so I feel compelled to back Matt Campbell’s team here. The over/under points total for this game is 35. That’s lower than you see for some Army/Navy games. Given that this game should be competitive and low scoring, why not take the team getting a field goal? Pick: Iowa State.

South Florida (+30.5) at Alabama: My biggest bet regret from Week 1 was listing Alabama as a lean instead of a lock. The Crimson Tide were favored by 32 and beat Western Kentucky 63-0. You normally have to lay upwards of 50 points with Alabama in these situations. But they don’t have to win by nearly that kind of margin with Nick Saban in retirement. South Florida is on the same level as Western Kentucky. This could be another thrashing. Pick: Alabama.

BYU (+10.5) at SMU: The Mustangs should be highly motivated to put on a show for a national TV audience against BYU on Friday. SMU has covered this number in eight straight home games. Pick: SMU.

Last Week: 3-2

Season: 3-2

Upset pick of the week

Mississippi State (+200) at Arizona State: I simply can’t get over the fact that Arizona State, a team that was picked to finish dead last in the Big 12, is favored by nearly a touchdown over a team from the SEC. For that reason, I am going to double down on this game and make the Bulldogs my underdog pick of the week. Pick: Mississippi State.

Last Week: 1-0

Season: 1-0

Other lines worth considering

Arkansas (+7.5) at Oklahoma State: Last year, it took Mike Gundy a few weeks to get the Cowboys to start playing in midseason form. Based on the way they pounded South Dakota State last week, it seems like they are ahead of schedule this time around. Lean: Oklahoma State.

Texas (-7.5) at Michigan: Could Michigan be the new Iowa this season? The Wolverines are no longer a dynamic team on offense, but they remain excellent at forcing other teams to punt. That could make this game a low-scoring affair. Lean: Under 43.5.

UTSA (+1) at Texas State: Neither team looked impressive in Week 1, but they both managed to win. Here’s guessing both sides play better in Week 2. The Bobcats have one of the best offenses in the Sun Belt, and have a good chance to prevail at home. Lean: Texas State.

Georgia Tech (-2.5) at Syracuse: This was one of my favorite bets until Florida State lost to Boston College. Sure, Georgia Tech is off to a 2-0 start, but that doesn’t seem all that impressive if the Seminoles are one of the worst teams in the ACC. Nevertheless, I like the way the Yellow Jackets run the ball and still trust them to cover a small number at Syracuse. Lean: Georgia Tech.

Colorado (+7.5) at Nebraska: If you’re going to bet on Colorado, you might as well do it early in the season before their roster depth gets exposed. This seems like a good opportunity to back the Buffaloes. Nebraska is improved in Year 2 under Matt Rhule, but the Cornhuskers don’t see many high-octane offenses like this in the Big Ten. This could be a challenge for them. Much like last year, I won’t be surprised if Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter manage to score enough points to keep up with Nebraska in the second week of the season. Lean: Colorado.