Chiefs-Texans prediction: Know this about Patrick Mahomes’ ankle before making a pick

The Kansas City Chiefs play the Houston Texans Saturday at noon.

Here are this week’s game details:

Kickoff: Noon Central on Saturday

Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

TV: NBC (Channel 41 in Kansas City, Channel 3 in Wichita) and Peacock

Radio: KFNZ (96.5 FM in Kansas City, KNSS 98.7 FM in Wichita)

Betting line: Chiefs by 3 1/2.

Chiefs-Texans game prediction

I was at every Chiefs practice this week, and I can start with this before giving a Chiefs prediction: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes looked way better than I thought he would.

Mahomes, who suffered a right ankle injury late in Sunday’s game against the Cleveland Browns, logged three full practices. He didn’t limp during this week’s workouts. And even in the locker room — without support for his leg — Mahomes moved around freely without favoring his right side in any noticeable way.

We don’t have to be doctors to declare that good news for the Chiefs. Early in the week, Mahomes said this injury wasn’t as bad as one he suffered two years ago, and his movements since have only reinforced that statement.

Having said that, I still think there’s plenty of reason to worry for the Chiefs on Saturday. Mahomes was diagnosed with a high-ankle sprain, which, as our Sam McDowell detailed a couple of years ago, has different limitations and side effects than the typical rolled-ankle-type ankle sprains we usually consider.

Specifically, high-ankle sprains are rotational injuries, meaning athletes can often move OK and run decently in one direction. The issue, however, is both cutting and stopping — two techniques Mahomes frequently relies on to save the Chiefs on critical third-down plays.

The scramble tool, then, might mostly be out of his arsenal when the Chiefs play at home against the Texans.

And one could easily argue that this is the contest where he might need it the most.

The Texans defense is fantastic. In the all-encompassing DVOA measure, Houston ranks first in overall defense, pass defense and rush defense, with a specific specialty of heating up opposing quarterbacks while using man coverage on the back end.

That would typically leave the Texans susceptible to Mahomes runs. But will he do that on Saturday with his ailment? Or, perhaps the better question is, can he?

The Texans have their own offensive problems. Quarterback C.J. Stroud has taken a significant step back in his second season. Houston probably has the worst offensive line in football, and its interior struggles make Chiefs star defensive tackle Chris Jones among the worst possible matchups an opposing team could present.

Houston has a glimmer of hope, though, in a superstar receiver. Nico Collins ranks second among all wideouts in Pro Football Focus grade this season (behind only the Rams’ Puka Nacua), and his strength is an area where KC’s defense has been vulnerable lately.

Collins is great at explosive plays. In nine games, Collins has 10 catches of 25-plus yards this season; the Chiefs, to compare, have no one on their roster with more than four such receptions.

And though the Chiefs defense has historically been strong at limiting big gains under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, that hasn’t been the case over the last month. Carolina and Las Vegas, for instance, combined for 10 explosive passes of at least 25 yards against KC. Those two offenses, keep in mind, didn’t enter with the best of reputations.

It’s also worth mentioning the Chiefs’ dilemma on the offensive line. KC moved left guard Joe Thuney to left tackle last week while inserting Mike Caliendo at left guard.

And though the Chiefs did an admirable job supporting Thuney against all-world Browns pass rusher Myles Garrett, that game plan tapered off in the second half.

Once KC ran low on schemed-up first-half plays to mitigate Garrett, it had little left it could go to late. The Chiefs didn’t run as well without Thuney in his customary spot, and many of his true pass sets were doomed from the start, as he understandably failed with tackle techniques he’s not accustomed to using.

Chiefs coach Andy Reid didn’t say whether Thuney would be back out at left tackle Saturday, but if he is, KC can only do so much to mask his obvious limitations.

Honestly, I think it might be wise to try second-year player Wanya Morris at left tackle again; at least then, the Chiefs could provide him similar support while putting the Pro Bowl left guard Thuney back into his natural position.

Under any circumstance, the Chiefs will have to use more bodies and hands to slow down Houston edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, who might be the best pass-rushing tandem in the league. Doing that means fewer guys out on the route, though, which puts more pressure on receivers like Xavier Worthy (and the returning Hollywood Brown) to separate early or DeAndre Hopkins and Travis Kelce to wrestle away contested catches.

One piece of good news for the offenses is the weather. For the first time in three weeks, the Chiefs won’t face windy conditions, meaning Mahomes could get an accuracy boost by having his throws flutter less than they have lately.

It’s still a tricky spot for KC without a fully healthy Mahomes. So much of the offense relies on his third-down Superman act, and one of his best magic powers there has been running for first downs after a play breaks down.

If he can’t do that like usual, then I’m leaning toward not liking the Chiefs’ odds here as much as the Vegas sportsbooks do.

Give me the Texans for both the win and cover.

Texans 20, Chiefs 14

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Houston

Last game prediction: Chiefs 24, Browns 14 (Actual: Chiefs 21-7) ✔️

2024 record vs. spread: 6-7-1

Last three seasons’ record vs. spread: 31-23-1 (57%)