Chiefs-Texans prediction: Here’s the biggest factor swaying my KC-Houston pick

The Kansas City Chiefs play the Houston Texans in Saturday’s AFC Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs.

Here are this week’s game details:

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. Central on Saturday

Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

TV: ABC (Channel 9 in Kansas City, Channel 10 in Wichita) and ESPN

Radio: KFNZ (96.5 FM in Kansas City, KNSS 98.7 FM in Wichita)

Betting line: Chiefs by 8 1/2.

Chiefs-Texans prediction

All things considered, the Kansas City Chiefs have to like how this first playoff matchup sets up for them.

By clinching the AFC’s No. 1 seed early, KC had more than three weeks to rest starters. And as our columnist Sam McDowell has noted, coach Andy Reid typically makes the most of his extra prep time, going 29-3 in his career when he has a bye week and the opposing team doesn’t.

The Chiefs are comfortable Vegas favorites here and are clearly the better team. That doesn’t mean they can’t lose — or that a one-game sample couldn’t swing things the Texans’ way — but Houston has hard-to-miss statistical flaws that KC should be able to exploit.

Mostly ... the Texans aren’t great offensively. They don’t have much of a run game — even with running back Joe Mixon producing some highlights — because they don’t run-block well. Their pass protection has been just as troublesome, while quarterback C.J. Stroud has been good this year but has taken a step back from his rookie form last season.

The team has one great hope offensively: toss it up to uber-talented receiver Nico Collins down the field and hope for the best. He was especially effective in last week’s playoff win against the Los Angeles Chargers on in-breaking routes, and that’s undoubtedly something Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will look to limit.

On defense, the Texans are excellent about everywhere. They are effective in stopping the run, are great against the pass and also have the best pass-rushing duo in the NFL: Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. The Chiefs have relied heavily on a quick passing game lately, and that should be their best path to success again in this one while trying to negate Houston’s greatest strength.

There’s one wild card here, though, that I think swings significantly in the Chiefs’ favor: the weather. We saw in last year’s Divisional Round how shocked a Miami team seemed by the bitter cold of KC. And though Saturday’s wind chills will be more manageable — expected in the single digits by the game’s end — it’s not something that Houston can prepare for well in southern Texas.

The wind — with some northerly wind gusts expected above 20 mph — should also be a factor. That’s the threshold where we see significant adverse effects in NFL passing games, and it stands to reason a KC team that’s more reliant on runs and short passes should be better suited for this curveball than a Houston team that must chuck it deep and hope for the best.

One more thing: According to Stathead, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been excellent in the cold, with a 10-2 record in games below 30 degrees. In case you were wondering, one loss was to New England in the AFC Championship during his first season as a starter, and the other was last year at Denver when he was on the injury report for the flu.

The record here speaks for itself. Mahomes thrives in this setting.

I see the Chiefs — thanks to last year’s negative-27-degree-wind-chill experience against the Dolphins — being more ready for the cold weather that’s coming. Besides that, KC appears to be the team more qualified to adjust to the challenges of a gusty afternoon.

The 8 1/2-point line might seem high for a Chiefs team that hardly had any blowouts in the regular season, but I think KC is set up to get past that number here. Give me the Chiefs for the win and cover, with Mother Nature providing an assist in the team’s opening playoff game.

Chiefs 24, Texans 10

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City

Last game prediction: Broncos 31, Chiefs 13 (Actual: Broncos 38-0) ✔️

2024 record vs. spread: 8-8-1

Last three seasons’ record vs. spread: 33-24-1 (58%)