Chiefs-Ravens prediction: Weighing Lamar Jackson trend vs. this edge for KC’s defense

The Kansas City Chiefs play the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night to begin the 2024 NFL season.

Here are the game details:

Kickoff: 7:20 Central on Thursday night

Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City

TV: NBC (Channel 41 in Kansas City, Channel 3 in Wichita)

Radio: WDAF (106.5 FM in Kansas City, KNSS 98.7 FM in Wichita)

Betting line: Chiefs by 3.

Game prediction

Season openers always feel like the toughest to predict.

Sure, we’re probably on safe footing saying these are two of the best teams in football facing each other on opening night. And, if not for Patrick Mahomes magic and KC’s “In Spags We Trust” defense dominating at the perfect moments in late January, it easily could’ve been the Ravens hoisting the Lombardi Trophy a few months back after one of the most dominant statistical regular seasons of all time.

That’s not how history played out, though. KC marched into Baltimore and knocked the favorites off their game, forcing quarterback Lamar Jackson and Co. into the type of come-from-behind setting they hadn’t been in all season.

The Chiefs had just enough in the end to win 17-10 on their way to a second straight Super Bowl championship.

What happened in the offseason, however, was probably the opposite of what one might expect given the teams’ late trajectories.

NFL teams lined up to pluck away Baltimore’s defensive coaches; the Ravens start this season with a new defensive coordinator and changes in personnel to lead their defensive line and defensive backs.

There was also some natural roster turnover as well. Standouts like edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney and linebacker Patrick Queen took bigger money elsewhere, which leaves at least some questions surrounding how well Baltimore’s defense will perform early.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, have the exact opposite scenario on defense. The team returns almost everyone — right down to the assistants who have built up championship rosters the last two seasons.

KC will be down cornerback L’Jarius Sneed after an offseason trade to Tennessee, but beyond that brings back a load of talent from a roster that was one of the youngest age-adjusted defenses in the league. The Chiefs signed zero defensive free agents from outside the building this offseason, finally breaking their “no new guys allowed” trend with a trade for Arizona edge rusher Cameron Thomas last week.

If continuity is a winning formula for a defense, then KC seemed content to stick all its chips in the middle on that particular bet.

There are reasons to be concerned if you’re Spagnuolo, no matter how well you know your guys. Some of the Chiefs’ top performers (like defensive lineman Chris Jones and linebacker Nick Bolton) were banged up throughout training camp. Though they’ll all play Thursday, they didn’t get the number of reps together you’d like ahead of this tough matchup to start.

The secondary is unsettled, too. Second-year player Chamarri Conner will likely be asked to play slot corner — there are questions about whether his speed and change of direction will be enough there — while CB2 behind Trent McDuffie has been a revolving door the last month because of lingering injuries to Jaylen Watson, Joshua Williams and Nazeeh Johnson.

It’d be foolhardy not to at least mention that Baltimore added running back Derrick Henry this offseason, and in four regular-season games against KC, he’s averaged 112 rushing yards. On an offense seemingly filled with big dudes, Henry moves to the top of the list in terms of physicality.

One big-picture trend doesn’t favor the Chiefs: Jackson has been excellent as an underdog. Via ESPN’s Benjamin Solak, Jackson is 12-1-1 as an underdog in his career and 10-4 straight up in those contests; it’s the best win percentage in both marks of any QB with at least a 10-game sample.

Though Chiefs fans might also have some flashbacks to last year’s season opener when KC’s offense struggled in a 21-20 loss to Detroit ... I actually see this one going differently.

A year ago, the Chiefs dealt with a late curveball when they ruled out tight end Travis Kelce with a game-week knee injury. While KC will be down receiver Hollywood Brown (shoulder), the team has had weeks to prepare for that and adjust accordingly.

And I can’t help but think back to the Chiefs’ primary edge in this game: continuity. That should especially take hold on the defensive end, where we should expect fewer mental errors and missteps with KC, given the circumstances.

The Chiefs have some depth issues, but that’s more likely to show in Week 11 than it is Week 1.

I see KC’s offense playing decent against a great-but-transitioning Baltimore defense Thursday, with the Chiefs defense getting an early season boost that can only come from familiarity with the playbook and each other.

Give me the Chiefs for both the win and cover to start off 2024.

Chiefs 28, Ravens 20

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City

Last game prediction: Chiefs 23, 49ers 21 (Actual: Chiefs 25-22) ✔️

2023 record vs. spread: 13-8

Last two seasons’ record vs. spread: 25-16 (61%)