Chiefs-Raiders prediction: Why KC-Las Vegas line is a first in the NFL this season

The Kansas City Chiefs play the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday in Paradise, Nevada.

Here are the game details:

Kickoff: 3:25 p.m. Central on Sunday

Where: Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada

TV: CBS (Channel 5 in Kansas City, Channel 12 in Wichita)

Radio: KFNZ (96.5 FM in Kansas City, KNSS 98.7 FM in Wichita)

Betting line: Chiefs by 9.

Chiefs-Raiders game prediction

Though the Chiefs haven’t always been the most dominant team through a 6-0 start, they’re certainly getting lots of sportsbook respect as nine-point road favorites here.

It’s actually a first in the NFL this year. According to Team Rankings, no road team has been favored by seven points or more this season.

Before we delve into the analysis, just know this: nine points is a lot to cover in the NFL. It’s difficult to dominate games to this level, and even if a team does, there are always backdoor cover possibilities if the trailing squad gets meaningless points at the end to narrow the final margin.

It brings us, though, to the not-breaking news section of this prediction: The Raiders have been pretty bad.

Pro Football Focus has them ranked last in team grades for “run,” “tackling,” and “coverage.” The Raiders have one of the worst QB situations in the NFL and will have to go back to Gardner Minshew on Sunday following an injury to Aidan O’Connell. A simple way to frame the situation is that the Chiefs will have the two best quarterbacks in the stadium on their sideline Sunday: starter Patrick Mahomes and backup Carson Wentz.

So yeah, while KC has some midseason issues to address, they are nowhere close to the laundry list that coach Antonio Pierce currently faces in Las Vegas.

The optimist’s view for the Raiders on Sunday goes something like this: Rookie tight end Brock Bowers is a stud and can generate a bunch of yards even on short passes. Even if the Raiders go simple offensively, Bowers provides an avenue toward explosive gains.

On defense, Las Vegas has a standout capable of game-changing plays. Edge rusher Maxx Crosby primarily lines up over right tackle — that’s better for the Chiefs given that Jawaan Taylor is more equipped to handle that matchup than Wanya Morris — but he’s had big games against the Chiefs in the past and always is plenty motivated against Mahomes.

A problem for the Raiders is that they’re much worse off roster-wise than even a few weeks ago.

The team traded receiver Davante Adams to the Jets, which is a considerable loss. Next Gen Stats tallied up the data earlier this month, finding that since 2022, the Raiders were 1.4 yards per play worse on snaps when Adams was not on the field.

Las Vegas is dealing without a significant player on defense, too. Defensive tackle Christian Wilkins was off to a great start before injuring his foot, landing on injured reserve while leaving Crosby without his tag-team partner on the defensive line.

One thing to expect from the Raiders is aggressiveness defensively. They love to blitz — going to “Cover 0” with no safety help on a higher percentage of defensive snaps than any other NFL team, according to Next Gen Stats — while also not afraid to challenge Mahomes in the past with these high-risk, high-reward looks.

Mahomes will have to make good, quick decisions when the Raiders do bring heat. And though he’s had some quiet games lately, Chiefs receiver Xavier Worthy certainly could be in line for a deep pass this game given that he’d be a primary read on plays with open space down the field.

It’s worth at least pointing out the motivation factor as well. A Las Vegas player making fun of Mahomes with a Kermit puppet in training camp certainly won’t be forgotten by a QB who thrives on disrespect, while the Chiefs also seemed to make their dislike of the Raiders known after last year’s Super Bowl while appearing to troll them with a cigar celebration (in their own locker room).

In other words, I don’t see the Chiefs sleepwalking through this one. And while KC’s offense hasn’t had as many chunk gains as in years past, that certainly could change in this one where Las Vegas’ style could open things up for Mahomes to hit on big plays.

Offensively, the Raiders stink in the run game and aren’t good at the game’s most important position. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo usually feasts when he can make opponents one-dimensional while only able to pass, and this matchup certainly could trend in that direction given the season’s trends.

Yes, nine is a lot of points in the NFL, but things seem lined up here for a motivated Chiefs team to play better offensively while also thriving on defense against a wounded opponent.

Give me the Chiefs for both the win and cover.

Chiefs 30, Raiders 13

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City

Last game prediction: 49ers 26, Chiefs 20 (Actual: Chiefs 28-18) ❌

2024 record vs. spread: 4-1-1

Last three seasons’ record vs. spread: 29-17-1 (63%)