Chiefs-Falcons prediction: Why this KC-Atlanta pick hinges on Patrick Mahomes

The Kansas City Chiefs play the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday in Atlanta.

Here are the game details:

Kickoff: 7:20 p.m. Central on Sunday

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta

TV: NBC (Channel 41 in Kansas City, Channel 3 in Wichita)

Radio: KFNZ (96.5 FM in Kansas City, KNSS 98.7 FM in Wichita)

Betting line: Chiefs by 3.

Chiefs-Falcons game prediction

The Chiefs certainly will go into this game understanding the Atlanta Falcons’ greatest strength.

Atlanta, on offense, is excellent at old-school football. It has a physical offensive line that clears out the second-most space for its running backs, according to the advanced stat “Adjusted Line Yards” used to measure that.

The Falcons also have outstanding blockers on the perimeter in receiver Drake London and tight end Charlie Woerner. And just to add some explosion to the operation ... running back Bijan Robinson is top 10 according to Pro Football Focus’ metrics in run grade and missed tackles forced, making him a threat for a big play on each snap.

KC, thus far, has only been mediocre at stopping the run. It’s also had some early issues with missed tackles, which isn’t overly encouraging considering how important that aspect will be Sunday.

The Falcons’ passing game is another matter. Quarterback Kirk Cousins engineered a late game-winning drive on Monday Night Football against the Philadelphia Eagles, but he’s been noticeably less mobile than past seasons, posting two of the NFL’s lowest yards traveled per dropback of the season in his first two weeks, according to NFL’s Next Gen Stats.

If KC can stop the run, it figures to have success if it forces Atlanta into third-and-longs. The Falcons have been susceptible with their pass protection, and Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has already proven himself to be an expert at scheming ways to create pressure from all angles.

On offense, this is the second straight game where the Chiefs should have a physicality edge if they want to run downhill.

The Falcons are short on standout players in their front seven, and they’ve had issues both stopping the run and with tackling. The Chiefs likely will be putting their trust in rookie Carson Steele with Isiah Pacheco out, and the potential is there for a big day on the ground if the team wants it; center Creed Humphrey and guard Trey Smith were dominant run-blockers a week ago, and they will have the chance again Sunday if that’s the direction coach Andy Reid wants to go.

KC also should undoubtedly be better with the passing game than it was last week. Atlanta has one of the NFL’s worst pass-rushes, and that’s certainly a nice break for the Chiefs as they try to sort out their early issues at left tackle.

Look for the Chiefs to get Xavier Worthy more involved after a quiet Week 2. Also, look for them to press the ball further downfield and into the intermediate, especially against a Falcons defense that hasn’t covered tight ends that well this season.

In a game where both teams should have some success running, I like the Chiefs’ pass offense to regain some of the rhythm it had in the opener against Baltimore.

Look for Mahomes to play better with more comfort in the pocket following a below-average game for his standards.

In the end, I have KC for both the win and cover, as I think the Chiefs’ advantage in passing and pass blocking will play up in this particular matchup.

Chiefs 30, Falcons 21

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City

Last game prediction: Chiefs 21, Bengals 20 (Actual: Chiefs 26-25) ✔️

2024 record vs. spread: 2-0

Last three seasons’ record vs. spread: 27-16 (63%)