Chiefs’ decision to sit Mahomes comes with a concern — but it’s backed by evidence

After a brief post-Christmas break, just one inconsequential football game waiting on the back end of it, Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo opened a meeting by flipping on the big screen.

Five words lined the top of the page.

Do not lose your edge.

A day later, not yet aware of that messaging, I trudged over to the locker of linebacker Drue Tranquill. How might this week differ, I wondered, given that the Chiefs have already secured the No. 1 seed in the AFC for the NFL playoffs and therefore will rest some top starters in Denver?

“Honestly,” he said, “with our preparation, you’d think this game (determined) whether we’d get into the playoffs.

“I think that’s the edge the coaches build through their messaging.”

Edge.

There it is again.

Will it still be here in a couple of weeks?

The Chiefs will next play a meaningful football game — a very meaningful football game — during the AFC Divisional Round, scheduled for the weekend of Jan. 18-19. When they walk onto the field, some 24 or 25 days will have elapsed since quarterback Patrick Mahomes last took a snap.

By choice.

Head coach Andy Reid has elected to rest Mahomes and start backup Carson Wentz when the Chiefs face Denver on Sunday in a game the Broncos will likely need to win to make the playoffs.

We probably shouldn’t expect to see tight end Travis Kelce, defensive tackle Chris Jones, running back Isiah Pacheco, right tackle Jawaan Taylor, cornerback Trent McDuffie — or a host of others — either.

It’s a luxury.

A benefit.

But perhaps also a worry?

It’s appropriate to start that analysis with a supportive viewpoint, because, frankly, the evidence is so overwhelming that it’s pretty easy to arrive at the same decision on which Reid landed. There is nobody better in NFL history coming off a bye week than Reid. Nobody.

But what’s far more relevant now: Reid is 29-3 in his career when he’s the only coach operating with an extra week of rest — when the opponent, in other words, has played a game the previous week but he has not.

A stunning record.

How could that not drive your plans?

OK, I know. I know. A 25-day layoff is different than a 14-day hiatus. The question before the Chiefs, therefore, is how much rest is too much rest.

If not a concern, it’s at least a legitimate question. There’s a reason why Spagnuolo is putting those five words on the board — he knows it’s a legitimate question. Reid frequently notes that each level of the playoffs increases in speed, yet the Chiefs will be backing off their starters — until next week, when he acknowledged he ramps up the speed of practices during a bye week.

He’s done this before. The experience isn’t nothing.

Well, kind of.

If you’re looking for reassurance that 25 days off will be equally beneficial, well, I just don’t have the same kind of context to offer. In my research to find another example of a team resting its star players, quarterback included, for 25 days ahead a playoff game, I instead found that this particular layoff just might be unprecedented. (Which isn’t a surprise — the NFL once considered Wednesday off-limits; you know, player safety and all.)

The closest applicable examples: The Chiefs’ starters did have a 21-day break in 2020, before winning a Divisional Round game against the Browns; and Reid did give his Eagles players a 20-day gap before they cruised in the 2004 NFC Divisional Round.

Reid won each of those games.

But in the same manner I’ll argue the Chiefs first playoff game later this month should not be the definitive example for whether Reid played it right or wrong — because correlation does not necessarily equal causation — I neither can prop up those two past examples of evidence that the extended rest works.

What I can say definitively: There is no coach who takes better advantage of time off than Reid. And this is a spot in which I do believe the correlation has causation.

You don’t get to 29-3 by chance.

You don’t get to 29-3 by just excusing your players from the facility for a week, either.

It’s about what happens with those who stay behind. Reid is masterful at looking inward, analyzing his own team. The rhythm of a regular season forces in-the-weeds scouting and game-planning. A break provides the chance for a big-picture look.

And what better time?

The Chiefs’ offense is coming off its best two-week stretch of the season, and the primary reasons for that — the return of Hollywood Brown and late-year surge from Xavier Worthy — receivers who have played less than 50 snaps together. Think Reid and his staff might spend some time analyzing why it’s working, how it could work even better and what else might work?

That’s the advantage. It’s where Reid thrives.

There are others, too. Travis Kelce was a different player after giving his body a physical break ahead of last year’s playoffs — sacrificing a historical milestone in the process that set a standard in the locker room.

Mahomes is technically still on the injury report for an ankle injury. Chris Jones hasn’t returned to practice from a calf injury. The list goes on.

But it’s the mental advantage that has served the Chiefs best. For the next week-plus, Reid will split up advanced scouting assignments among assistant coaches, but there’s one particular team in which they will focus on the most — the one that has flourished in these circumstances.

His own.