Chiefs-Buccaneers prediction: Why I think KC will do something it hasn’t in 11 months

The Kansas City Chiefs play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on “Monday Night Football.”

Here are the game details:

Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. Central on Monday

Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City

TV: ESPN and ESPN2

Radio: KFNZ (96.5 FM in Kansas City, KNSS 98.7 FM in Wichita)

Betting line: Chiefs by 9 1/2.

Chiefs-Buccaneers game prediction

It’s worth starting with the same warning as last week’s prediction: A 9 1/2-point spread is a lot in the NFL while also vulnerable to a backdoor cover, just like the Las Vegas Raiders pulled off with a late touchdown last week in the Chiefs’ 27-20 road win.

In other words, the Chiefs must do more than play well to cover this week’s nearly double-digit spread; they also have to hold that considerable advantage late when team incentives might change.

You’ll hear a lot about Tampa Bay trying to work around injuries to star receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but the reality is, that side of the ball still had plenty of bright spots without those guys in last week’s close loss to Atlanta.

For instance, Tampa Bay had 300 yards passing and 100 yards rushing for its third straight game. If it does that a fourth time, it’ll be the longest such streak since the Peyton Manning-led Denver Broncos in 2013.

New offensive coordinator Liam Coen seems to have found a way to play to quarterback Baker Mayfield’s strengths, while tight end Cade Otton is being asked to handle a more significant load and additional receiver responsibilities with two of the team’s best weapons out.

The run game also combines strong run blocking with a pair of backs that most metrics love. Bucky Irving is great at avoiding tackles, while KC kid Rachaad White has flashed big-play potential as both a runner and receiver.

Mayfield, meanwhile, is at his best when quick and in rhythm. He’s the NFL’s best short passer in nearly every statistic, while his 2.60-second average time to throw is fourth quickest among 32 qualified QBs.

The Buccaneers’ bigger concern should be on the defensive end. The team has especially struggled with coverage at the linebacker spot while ranking among the league’s worst at covering opposing tight ends.

There’s also been a merry-go-round at the back end of the team’s corner rotation, though Kansas State product Josh Hayes had some high-quality snaps last week after stepping in for the struggling Tyrek Funderburk.

It’s still not how a defense wants to be trending ahead of a matchup with KC, which loves to target short throws in the middle of the field while also looking to pick on an opponent’s greatest weakness.

The weather will be worth monitoring, as a thunderstorm is possible around game time. Interestingly, though, that threat isn’t supposed to produce much wind, meaning these offenses aren’t likely to be hampered by the conditions as you might expect.

KC’s defense has shut down nearly every strong running game it has encountered, and I think it’ll have success in that area Monday. Still, the Chiefs haven’t always been great at defending short passes — something the Bucs thrive with — which makes me think Tampa Bay could maintain some drives against KC while continuing a season-long trend of excellence on third downs.

Many of the same talking points can be flipped when we discuss KC’s offense. Look for tight end Travis Kelce to be targeted a bunch, with the Chiefs efficient-but-not-explosive style playing just fine against this depleted defense.

A stormy shootout? I think so.

The Chiefs haven’t scored 30-plus in nearly a calendar year — Nov. 26, 2023 against the Raiders was the last time — but I see them hitting that mark here with the passing game finding its stride.

That doesn’t stop me from thinking Mayfield and the Bucs will find some success of their own while attacking a KC vulnerability underneath.

Give me the Chiefs for the win, but the Buccaneers for the cover.

Chiefs 31, Buccaneers 24

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Tampa Bay

Last game prediction: Chiefs 30, Raiders 13 (Actual: Chiefs 27-20) ❌

2024 record vs. spread: 4-2-1

Last three seasons’ record vs. spread: 29-18-1 (62%)