Chiefs-Broncos prediction: KC, Patrick Mahomes face these clear challenges vs. Denver

The Kansas City Chiefs play the Denver Broncos on Sunday in Kansas City.

Here are the game details:

Kickoff: Noon Central on Sunday

Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City

TV: CBS (Channel 5 in Kansas City, Channel 12 in Wichita)

Radio: KFNZ (96.5 FM in Kansas City, KNSS 98.7 FM in Wichita)

Betting line: Chiefs by 7 1/2.

Chiefs-Broncos game prediction

The Denver Broncos have some obvious and glaring flaws, but when we discuss them here in a second, it’s best to keep proper context.

This was supposed to be a down year for Denver (Football Outsiders Almanac, for instance, projected the Broncos had a 1-in-6 shot at the playoffs). When the team decided to walk away from quarterback Russell Wilson — while eating $53 million in cap charges — it knew there would be short-term consequences. Denver is intentionally operating with one arm behind its back because of a previous awful decision, and despite that, has a 5-4 record and real postseason hopes through half of this season.

The leading star has been the defense. Cornerback Patrick Surtain remains one of the league’s best on the back end, but he’s also gotten plenty of unexpected help.

Denver’s defensive line, under coordinator Vance Joseph, has been excellent. The Broncos blitz a bunch and are tied for the NFL’s best when it comes to early-down pressure, with Zach Allen, Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper already registering six sacks each (to compare, George Karlaftis leads KC with four sacks in 2024).

The Broncos have been top-10 against the run as well. Yes, the defense is coming off its worst performance of the year last week in a blowout loss at Baltimore, but underlying numbers seem to indicate that was more one-off than pattern; this defense seems like it should remain as one of the NFL’s best as the season progresses.

That will be needed because Denver’s offense is a bit of a mess. The team’s biggest strength there is its offensive line — and in particular, pass blocking — but that part has been let down by skill positions who too often haven’t taken advantage.

Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has had some moments, but at this point, also has some obvious limitations. He’s an outstanding scrambler — the Chiefs should employ plenty of linebacker spies on Sunday — but Next Gen Stats indicate he doesn’t handle the blitz well and isn’t that effective when forced to be a pocket passer.

The receivers aren’t helping him much, either. Courtland Sutton is great — he’s one the league’s best receivers outside the numbers — but Denver doesn’t have much behind him. The Broncos barely get any receiving production from their tight ends, and guys like rookie Troy Franklin (a teammate of Nix’s in college) haven’t developed as quickly as hoped.

This leads to the Broncos’ other pickle: They’re not good running the football. This is an O-line and running-back problem, but that lack of success to this point makes it unlikely the team will find its way against a KC defense that shut down nearly every rushing attack it’s faced.

The Chiefs have some clear challenges heading into this one. KC is coming off a short week with a longer-than-normal injury list filled with bumps and bruises you’d expect following a Monday night game.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is a tough guy, but he also won’t be completely over his ankle injury. One of Mahomes’ best weapons has been scrambles on third downs, and those should remain limited this week while not playing at full strength.

How KC wins offensively will have to change from last week against Tampa Bay. Denver has defended tight ends well, which should mean fewer openings for Travis Kelce. The Chiefs also should find more resistance in the run game than they did in the second half last week when they completely overwhelmed the Bucs’ front line.

The weather (lower 60s, not much wind) would typically make it a good day for the offenses, but I could see both having struggles in this one.

In particular, I worry about Nix and how he’ll handle Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s exotic blitzes. Nix’s weakness there is difficult to miss, and he likely hasn’t seen the kinds of looks he’ll get Sunday with rushers coming from all different directions to hassle him.

The Broncos defense should be plenty motivated to put last week behind them as well — and also should have some confidence from last season after it turned over the Chiefs five times in a home win.

Ultimately, I see this thing turning one-dimensional for Denver’s offense. The Broncos shouldn’t be able to run, and that will only put additional pressure on Nix to operate under duress while trying to avoid back-breaking turnovers that would kill any hope of a Denver upset.

I see KC’s defense dominating this one after a disappointing Monday Night effort. Give me the Chiefs for both the win and cover.

Chiefs 24, Broncos 10

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City

Last game prediction: Chiefs 31, Buccaneers 24 (Actual: Chiefs 30-24) ✔️

2024 record vs. spread: 5-2-1

Last three seasons’ record vs. spread: 30-18-1 (63%)