Chiefs-Broncos prediction: These are my conflicting thoughts with KC vs. Denver pick

The Kansas City Chiefs play the Denver Broncos on Sunday.

Here are this week’s game details:

Kickoff: 3:25 p.m. Central on Sunday

Where: Empower Field at Mile High Stadium, Denver

TV: CBS (Channel 5 in Kansas City, Channel 12 in Wichita)

Radio: KFNZ (96.5 FM in Kansas City, KNSS 98.7 FM in Wichita)

Betting line: Broncos by 10 1/2.

Chiefs-Broncos game prediction

I have conflicting thoughts when trying to pick an against-the-spread winner for this Chiefs-Broncos game.

The 10 1/2-point spread reflects what the Chiefs confirmed on Friday: KC will rest most of its stars on Sunday to prepare for the playoffs.

I still believe this, though: KC’s coaches will give their best effort to win. And honestly, I was impressed by how the Chiefs performed in last season’s bench-the-starters, 13-12 road victory over the Los Angeles Chargers (even if KC benefited greatly then from a scoop-and-score TD from the defense).

This is an excellent opportunity for some talented reserves. Rookie running back Carson Steele, for instance, had impressive moments earlier this season before displaying a fumbling issue. The Chiefs also can’t bench everyone with a limited roster, meaning a position such as receiver will have plenty of familiar names cycling through Sunday even as the Chiefs keep their primary focus on the postseason.

There’s also this: I think Carson Wentz is the best backup quarterback the Chiefs have had behind Patrick Mahomes. Coach Andy Reid has raved about him, and from what we saw in training camp, none of KC’s previous QB understudies can rival Wentz’s arm. The 32-year-old should be competing for a starting job with a different NFL team next season.

Those are the positives for Chiefs bettors. The other side, though, has compelling points as well.

Perhaps it’s best to start with this: Denver is a good team. The Broncos have a great offensive line (especially with pass protection), and quarterback Bo Nix has exceeded expectations while always providing a run threat when he drops back.

The defense, meanwhile, would be an issue for the Chiefs even if they had every starter available.

That starts up front, where Zach Allen leads the NFL in QB hits and Nik Bonitto was so good he just picked up a Pro Bowl nod. That’s not even mentioning edge Jonathon Cooper, who has 9 1/2 sacks himself, or cornerback Patrick Surtain II, who’s so dominant that he’s a betting favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year.

KC’s biggest concern will be protecting Wentz with a makeshift offensive line. Yes, offensive line starters such as Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith might play some, but KC will constantly be shuffling guys into unfamiliar positions.

The Chiefs’ run game has struggled lately, and the Broncos also defend that aspect well. That means it’ll be up to KC’s coaches to scheme some quick, easy looks for Wentz, which will be challenging while massaging a limited roster.

I expect the Chiefs to give good effort and play well for stretches on Sunday. I also think Wentz will play like a quarterback that other teams will consider as a potential starter this offseason.

But I also think the Chiefs face an avalanche of obstacles in this one, which starts with a motivated (and sound) Denver team playing at home with a playoff berth on the line.

Look for Denver to make big plays defensively, which will swing the result and also the margin of victory.

Give me the Broncos for both the win and cover.

Broncos 31, Chiefs 13

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Denver

Last game prediction: Chiefs 30, Steelers 24 (Actual: Chiefs 29-10) ✔️

2024 record vs. spread: 7-8-1

Last three seasons’ record vs. spread: 32-24-1 (57%)