Chiefs-Bills prediction: What I feel most confident about in AFC Championship Game

The Kansas City Chiefs play the Buffalo Bills in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game.

Here are this week’s game details:

Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. Central on Sunday

Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

TV: CBS (Channel 5 in Kansas City, Channel 12 in Wichita) and Paramount+

Radio: KFNZ (96.5 FM in Kansas City, KNSS 98.7 FM in Wichita)

Betting line: Chiefs by 2.

Chiefs-Bills prediction

I feel convicted about a few things happening in this game — even if they still wouldn’t definitively swing the outcome one way or the other.

For one, I think this matchup will exceed Vegas’ expected 48 1/2 points. The weather conditions — with little wind in the forecast — should be great for the passing games. And we have lots of previous evidence telling us that Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are typically at their best in these big-game moments.

Something else? I think Chiefs receiver Hollywood Brown will have a big game. Yes, he had no catches last week against Houston, but that turned into a strange game script with limited offensive plays for the Chiefs.

Everything about Brown’s usage in his regular-season games screams that KC wants him to be a focal point of the offense. This matchup couldn’t be much better for him; the Bills struggle in coverage and especially across the middle of the field, and one of Brown’s specialties historically has been utilizing sharp cuts to create separation on intermediate routes.

I’d expect much more from him than the 40 1/2 receiving yards the sportsbooks think he’ll get.

As for the game ... it’s interesting that the Bills’ emerging weakness isn’t something the Chiefs can exploit as well now as they might’ve two months ago. Buffalo is susceptible against the rush — it loves to leave small secondary bodies on the field, even against multiple tight ends — and that’s even more of a concern now that sure-tackling safety Taylor Rapp has been declared out for the game with back and hip injuries.

In November, that would’ve set up nicely for the Chiefs with their run-first offensive identity at the time. KC has had to reinvent itself, however, ever since moving left guard Joe Thuney to left tackle while shifting backup Mike Caliendo into the lineup.

In short: The Chiefs don’t have the dominant interior line to run like they once did. So a grind-it-out game-plan doesn’t make as much sense, even if the Bills’ personnel and roster limitations scream for KC to test out whether it can out-physical Buffalo in the biggest game of the year.

Maybe one small, positive sign for the Chiefs? Thuney, in his fifth start at left tackle last week, posted his best Pro Football Focus run-block grade at the position. Perhaps there’s hope he’s improving in his new spot and can help KC get closer to what it once was there.

The Bills, mind you, have a great rush offense, too. One of the great successes of their season has been taking some of the burden off Allen’s shoulders, and KC’s excellent run defense will need to play well to limit dynamic runners like James Cook and Ray Davis.

All those subplots will play a role, but we also know the true matchup is Mahomes vs. Allen. Both have the talent and playmaking ability to single-handedly carry their team to the Super Bowl if they perform as they have in the past.

Frankly, the Chiefs’ defense has always had trouble stopping Allen. He’s tough to limit in the QB run game during these gotta-have-it playoff contests, and he haunted KC with third-down success during Buffalo’s home win in November.

And though Mahomes had accuracy issues early last week against the Texans ... does anyone really think he’s not going to perform well in this game? Against an average-ish Bills defense in the clutch moments where he always thrives?

It could come down to small edges. The Chiefs are better in special teams, featuring a returner capable of breaking off a big play. There’s also no question that KC has the advantage at kicker, with Harrison Butker being the much more reliable option compared to someone who just missed a huge field goal against the Chiefs last season.

Both teams tend to ball control, making a high-scoring game a bit more risky to predict.

I think it’s happening here, though. Expect high-powered passing games, two QBs playing at the peak of their powers, and an AFC Championship that comes down to the very end.

And a final prognostication? Look for the Chiefs to score more than 30 points for the first time in their last 23 games.

They might need nearly all those points to overtake Allen and the Bills on Sunday. Give me the Chiefs for the win and cover.

Chiefs 34, Bills 31

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City

Last game prediction: Chiefs 24, Texans 10 (Actual: Chiefs 23-14) ✔️

2024 season record vs. spread: 9-8-1

Last three seasons’ record vs. spread: 34-24-1 (59%)