Champions League: What Italian Teams Need to Qualify

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On the eve of the eighth and final round of the Champions League group stage, Italian teams are grappling with the math and the need to achieve the right results to secure direct qualification to the knockout stage.

With the exception of Bologna, already eliminated, Inter, Milan, Atalanta, and Juventus are still in the race to avoid the playoffs, thus saving themselves from two potentially dangerous matches that would congest an already busy schedule.

Inter and Milan appear very close to direct qualification, with the possibility of finishing the group among the top eight if they manage the final round well. Atalanta needs a strong performance against Barcelona, while Juventus will have to rely on a mix of excellent performances and lucky outcomes to avoid the playoffs.

The final matches will be decisive for the overall performance of the Italians in the Champions League: a day to be lived with bated breath.

Inter: A Point Against Monaco to Secure Qualification

Inter has the simplest path to the knockout stage. With 16 points already secured and a solid defense having conceded only 8 goals, the Nerazzurri need just a draw in their home match against Monaco to guarantee a spot among the top eight.

A victory would further solidify their position among the top four, ensuring a more favorable draw in the knockout phase. Simone Inzaghi and his men have shown great solidity, and with just one point, they seem destined to continue their journey without too many complications.

Milan: A Win Against Dinamo Zagreb to Avoid Calculations

After a shaky start, Milan has regained momentum thanks to significant victories like the one against Real Madrid at the Bernabeu. With 15 points in hand, the Rossoneri can secure direct qualification by beating Dinamo Zagreb away. Fabio Cannavaro, now in charge of the Croatians, poses a formidable challenge, but Milan has what it takes to seal the deal.

A draw might still suffice to enter the top eight, but it would require a favorable combination of results from competing teams. The Rossoneri's goal difference (+4) does not guarantee much comfort in case of a tie on points.

Atalanta: A Crucial Challenge Against Barcelona

Among the Italian teams, Atalanta is perhaps the one that has displayed the most brilliant football, but a complicated schedule has forced them to fight for qualification until the very end. With 14 points and an excellent goal difference (+14), the Dea sits in seventh place, but their upcoming match away at Barcelona is set to be decisive.

A victory would ensure their place in the knockout stage, while a draw would force the Bergamaschi to hope for a favorable combination of results. Barcelona has already secured qualification, but they will not give anything away to Gasperini and his team, who will need to aim for a big win to secure their advancement.

Juventus: A Miracle Needed to Enter the Top Eight

The most complicated situation belongs to Juventus. With 12 points in the standings, the Bianconeri squandered a golden opportunity by drawing at home against Club Brugge in the last round.

Now, to hope for direct qualification, Thiago Motta's team must beat Benfica in the final match and hope that at least ten of the teams currently ahead of them do not win.

Among these are Bayer Leverkusen, Bayern Munich, and Borussia Dortmund, who are facing seemingly manageable matches. Although the math does not condemn Juventus, the chances of seeing the Bianconeri among the top eight are extremely low. Otherwise, they will face the playoffs.

Bologna: Hopes Now Vanished

Bologna is already mathematically eliminated. Despite a prestigious victory over Borussia Dortmund in the last match, Vincenzo Italiano's team failed to gather enough points to stay in contention.

Even with a win in the final day, in Lisbon against Sporting, the maximum they could reach is 8 points, insufficient to surpass the competition and hope for a playoff spot.

📸 FRANCOIS LO PRESTI - AFP or licensors