What’s The Ceiling For Connor Bedard In His Second NHL Season?

As the youngest player in the NHL last season, Connor Bedard set a pretty high bar for himself.

Even when he missed 14 games after suffering his fractured jaw last January, it became crystal clear during that time away how much he yearned to be back in action.

And when he returned in mid-February, face shield and all, his average ice time and rate of production actually increased. He had 28 points in his last 29 games, putting him very close to the point-per-game mark.

This year, he has started even hotter, with seven points in 6 games. He has just one goal so far, but that was an important game-winner in his first-ever game against the Edmonton Oilers at Rogers Place. And Bedard's six assists are a sign that he’s finding chemistry with his linemates Teuvo Teravainen and Nick Foligno — at even strength and on the power play.

Foligno seems to be enjoying his role as a finisher. He already has three goals in six games, after finishing with 17 last season.

After GM Kyle Davidson went out of his way to add more NHL-level talent to his roster over the summer, his efforts appear to be paying off. That means a jump in production for Bedard should be sustainable.

Last season, the Blackhawks finished 28th overall on the power play, with a success rate of just 16.6 percent. Bedard had points on 21 of Chicago’s 39 power-play goals.

This year, they’re converting at a much healthier 29.4 percent, which ranks them in the league's top 10. And Bedard has tallied assists on four of the team’s five power-play goals to date with the man advantage. Chicago is now set to make opponents pay for their penalties, and Bedard will be seizing those opportunities to boost his stats.

Also worth noting: Bedard is getting a few more of his shot attempts on net this season, averaging 3.17 shots per game compared to 3.03 last season. But while he was scoring on 10.7 percent of his shots in his rookie year, his conversion rate is sitting at an uncharacteristic 5.3 percent so far this year. At some point, his puck luck should improve and those shots will start turning into goals.

One more positive new trend: through six games, Bedard is plus-two and the Blackhawks have outscored their opponents 4-0 at 5-on-5 when he has been on the ice. He did get hit with a minus-one on Saturday when he was on the ice for Buffalo's late empty-net tally to seal their 4-2 win.

Last year, though, Bedard finished at minus-44, tied for second-worst in the league. At 5-on-5, he was on the ice for 37 goals scored at 5-on-5 and 67 goals against.

If his line can contribute effective defensive minutes, that’ll give coach Luke Richardson more leeway to put them out in tight situations and late in games, which would lead to even more scoring opportunities.

Are we expecting too much for Bedard to maintain his early pace — cracking 80 points and possibly pushing for 90 in just his second year? Let’s see what has happened with other forwards with similar pedigrees.

Bedard’s early career arc most closely resembles Connor McDavid’s — and that's promising. McDavid did eclipse a point-per-game in his 2015-16 rookie season, but a broken collarbone limited him to 45 games. In his sophomore season, McDavid exploded for 100 points and helped the Edmonton Oilers reach the playoffs for the first time in 11 years.

Auston Matthews, the 2016 first-overall pick, had a near-perfect inaugural campaign. He played all 82 games, hit 40 goals and 69 points, and won rookie of the year, like Bedard. Matthews' rate of production improved in Year 2, but 20 games missed due to injuries over the course of the season prevented him from improving. He settled for 34 goals and 63 points in 62 games.

Like Bedard, Nathan MacKinnon also won the Calder as an 18-year-old — and he was even younger, with a September birthday. In 2013-14, MacKinnon played all 82 games, registering similar numbers to Bedard with 24 goals and 63 points. But like Matthews, he lost 18 games in his second season — in his case, due to a fractured foot — and slipped back to 38 points.

MacKinnon got all the way to 140 in 2023-24, grabbing the Hart Trophy. But he didn’t beat his rookie total until Year 5, when he hit 97 points and famously finished second to Bedard’s current teammate, Taylor Hall, in the Hart voting.

If Bedard's past history tells us anything, it's that he should take another step forward this season.

Yes, junior hockey is a different beast than the NHL. But after hitting exactly 100 points in 62 games in his first proper season with the Regina Pats as a 16-year-old, Bedard upped that total the following year. He tallied a whopping 143 points in his draft year while his outside obligations for events like the World Juniors and the CHL Top Prospects game limited him to just 57 games. He was 36 points and 21 goals clear of the rest of the field in 2022-23 — of all WHL players, not just draft-eligibles.

As long as he can stay healthy, the stage is set for Bedard to take another big step forward in his NHL career during Year 2.

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