CBRT - Thursday, May 23, 2024 - 01:00 a.m. (ET) - Segment #1

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Get an air conditioner for as little as three dollars a day and make no monthly rental payments for 6 months Call on Reliance >> Announcer: this is cbc calgary news. >> Rob: thanks for staying up with us. I'm rob brown. Normally when canadians heed the call to head west they end up settling in british columbia. Well, not anymore. They've been hanging their hats in record numbers here in alberta. And especially in calgary. Check out these new stats from, who else, stats canada. They show calgary's population shooting up to nearly 1.7 million by july of last year. It's a record, 6% increase for a one year period, equal to almost 100,000 people. And that puts calgary behind just two other cities for largest population growth by budget in 2023. So it's bringing them to alberta alberta. Typically our population swells with every oil boom but atb financial looked at the data and found this time it's atypical. >> We're seeing something much broader, getting growth across a wide variety of sectors. But also people dealing with the cost of living crisis in housing affordability concerns are being drawn to alberta as relatively more affordable. Don't mean to suggest that housing is affordable for everyone in alberta because prices and rents have gone up a lot but relative to ontario and B.C. where we're getting a lot of migrants, the housing mark is more affordable here and that's been a big draw. >> Rob: no surprise, most of the new arrivals are from ontario and B.C. parson says remote workers are another reason for the population growth. They've been able to keep their jobs in other provinces and do that work here, and while affordability might be a big draw now, how long will it last? Because there's some more stats from stats canada. While inflation is falling in alberta, last month our province saw canada's highest rent increase for a one year period. Compared to the same time last year, rents were up more than 16%.

>>> With wildfire season underway here in alberta, some rural leaders are speaking out. It's against a bill that could take away their powers. Bill 21 would allow the province to take over emergency management. Travis macewan reports. >> Reporter: firefighters have recently been doing long shifts to control a wildfire near fort McMURRAY. Theiror they're employees the province has brought in, fairly typical. But a proposed bill would allow the province to fully take over if municipal leaders ask for help. It's perplexing for some of those leaders. >> There's always a mechanism in place, all municipal leaders have gone through training, recognizing that chain of command that's already established and this is a significant change in that. My members are asking, what's really the point of this? What problem are you trying to fix? >> Yellowhead county needed wildfire assistance last year. Fires that do evacuations in wildwood, and edson. The province has reviewed its response and calls for more provincial assistance. One lesson learned is that having an election in the midst of a wildfire season makes things harder. >> We're in a fire fight, trying to get help, trying to get hold of ministers and we don't have access to anyone because of the election. So the portion of this bill to change the election date, I am absolutely for, 100%. The areas where they can come in and take over are our equipment and our staffing as they see fit, that's where I have the issues. >> I can step in. >> Reporter: the minister of public safety and emergency services says the province already has the power to take over in an emergency. >> That is really no different than what we experienced in any sort of in-command. It's a reporting process. As we start from an initial stage where the regional municipality is in charge of that particular critical incident, as the situation progresses, as it tends to go beyond the capabilities of that regional municipality, we start looking with the government, working with alberta emergency management and wildfire. This is a good thing. >> Reporter: the bill hasn't been passed yet, and amendments could still come before then. Travis macewan, cbc news, edmonton. >> Many folks wrote us off, even just as recently as last month. But you know what happened? Despite it all, today albertans chose to move our province forward by re-electing a strong stable united conservative majority government! >> Reporter: nearly one year after premier danielle smith's ucp won the provincial election, looks like her government is hanging on to the voter support that got the conservatives that win. That is according to a new poll commissioned by cbc news. The random polling of 1200 albertans was conducted by janet brown, opinion research, between may 1 and may 15. The margin of error, plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 and to be clear, ucp support isn't all the research revealed. Janet brown is here to explain. How are you? >> Good. Thanks for having me. >> What is the headline number when it comes to parties, ndp v ucp? >> We did things a little different this time. We tried to measure available vote. It looks like 48, 49% of the population is considering the ucp as a party they would vote for in an upcoming election and that compares to about 5% for the ndp. So the news here it is looks like the ucp has hung on to most of the support they had one year ago in the election, that's good news for them. The other piece of good news is for the ndp. Despite the fact they lost the last election they're now searching for a new leader, they're still 5% of the population that's open to voting ndp. >> And you glossed over it there, but in asking about available vote, as opposed to who would you vote for now. Why is that important? >> Normally in a poll like that we would ask the standard horse race question. But right now the ndp doesn't have a permanent leader. It's a very hypothetical question to ask people how they would vote if they don't know the leaders that will face off against each other. So we asked the question a little differently. We said thinking ahead to the next election, how likely are you to consider voting for the ucp or the ndp. We take the people who say they're very likely, somewhat likely and add them together and we call that available vote. So it's not exactly a application of an election but it shows you how many voters are open to voting for those parties. Thought it was the right thing to do given that we're in the middle of an ndp leadership race. >> And it begs the question, once we have a new ndp leader do you expect the numbers will move? >> One reason I don't expect them to move, there's a clear frontrunner in the race for ndp leader and most of the people who answered the poll are expecting that nenshi will win. For that reason I don't think the numbers will change, but

that's the great thing about polling. They're always changing. So as soon as we're done talking about this poll I'm going to have to launch a new one. >> Nenshi's selling point is the ndp fell short in calgary, I can deliver calgary. What did you find on the calgary front? >> It's interesting, because I talked about those numbers provincially but they're very different across the province. In edmonton, the ndp has a much bigger available vote than ucp. Outside the two major cities it's the opposite, the ucp out pacing the ndp. But just like during the election campaign it's neck and neck in calgary. Both parties have the same amount of available vote in calgary. Solo it's a year later but the political dynamic in this province is exactly the same. It's still battlegrounds calgary. >> Rob: one year later, and danielle smith and the ucp's numbers have held pretty firm. What do you make of that? >> I find that really interesting. Certainly one year into jason kenney's term his numbers were starting to falter and it wasn't just the beginning of the covid pandemic. He was starting to become unpopular even before that. So it really is a feat for danielle smith to stay as popular as she has, particularly because this government's been so aggressive and so busy in punt forward so much legislation. So I think it speaks to the fact that danielle smith is very talented at walking a fine line and keeping her supporters with her, but also, you know, the ndp, rachel notley, has been the leader, but it's not the same -- she's a lame duck leader. We know she's going to go. So I think the ndp has been focused on a leadership race and hasn't been as strong in opposition as they could have been. So wait until we have a new ndp leader that will change the dynamic. >> What did you find when it came to permanent approval for the premier? >> The premier is a very polarizing individual. So we asked people to rate her on a scale from 0 to 10 and people gave an average rating of 4.5. but the average doesn't show it. We found a large group of people, about a third of the population feel very positively about her. 40% of people are not impressed with her. And then there's a group of about 22% in the middle who kind of have a mediocre view of her. So very polarizing. Large groups for her and large groups against her, but it's part of her strength. She knows how to hold her base. That's what the polls show. >> Remarkable she's been able to keep the party's numbers. You mentioned how polarizing danielle smith can be and you mentioned naheed nenshi. He's a polar rising person for a lot of people, carries a lot of baggage. Do you think alberta could be moving into a new era here similar to what we've seen federally, down in the states, of two very polarizing options? >> I'm old enough to remember when alberta was a one party state and then we got excited when it became a two party state and there were two competitive parties. But when the ndp lost and rachel notley resigned we wondered whether alberta would continue to be competitive. I think this poll says yes. We're waiting for a new leader of the ndp but this is still a very competitive environment, and we're going to have lots to talk about for the next two years for sure. >> Rob: no question, a lot of polls to come and a lot more on this one we should watch for online in the days ahead, right? >> Correct. >> Good stuff. Thank you, janet.

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