Cardinals’ Helsley closing in on saves records even without his best stuff

Ryan Helsley recently set and is in the midst of extending the St. Louis Cardinals record for consecutive save opportunities converted.

He is well on his way to representing the Cardinals in his second All-Star Game, and is only two saves away from becoming the second Cardinal to record 30 before the All-Star break, joining Hall of Famer Lee Smith in 1993.

And still, strangely, it seems he hasn’t been at his best.

Following a May 25 appearance against the Chicago Cubs in which he tied season highs for hits (four) and runs (two) allowed, Helsley has seemingly drifted away from his devastating fastball. Despite averaging a sizzling 99.4 miles per hour with the pitch this season, Statcast’s data tracking rates it as neutral, with a run value of zero.

His slider, on the other hand, accounts for nearly all of his success as measured by data, and Helsley’s breaking pitches (he also rarely mixes in a curveball) have been superior to 96% of the league in terms of effectiveness.

“Probably for the last couple two, three weeks just haven’t really been consistent with it,” Helsley said of his fastball command. “Just trying to be consistent, but [I’ve] been able to compete and get the job done so far.”

“He’s been working through it. That was part of the three days off,” manager Oli Marmol said, referring to the series last week in Miami in which Helsley, by design, did not pitch. “He knows what he’s trying to work on. As a closer, it’s harder to do that. As a starter, you have real time in between [appearances] to make adjustments.”

Reps at game speed are also important. A starter with a four or five pitch mix might notice one or two of his offerings behaving on a given day, but over a five-inning start, that pitcher can keep hitters off balance by simply altering the mix, buying himself more time to regain essential feel.

For Helsley, who has been tightly scripted to one-inning outings and only in the highest leverage situations, his last five innings have stretched over a period of nearly two weeks. And yet because of the need to be available nearly every day without being able to predict game situations, opportunities for a full drill down in a side session are limited.

“That’s definitely the biggest difference I’ve learned [between] being out of the bullpen and starting,” Helsley said. “You’ve gotta have it right away, and figure out what you do and don’t have so you can attack guys and get ahead.”

The appearance against the Cubs stands out as a turning point because of the way those hitters ambushed Helsley’s fastball early in at bats. Chicago hitters Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger all put Helsley’s fastball in play with exit velocities of at least 99.7 MPH. All but Suzuki did so on the first fastball they saw in their at bat; for Happ and Bellinger, that was the first pitch.

Intimations and quiet accusations flowed from the Chicago clubhouse following that game that perhaps the Cubs had picked up a tell on Helsley and were able to identify an incoming fastball from something in his delivery. The Cardinals have quietly acknowledged that, but insist that the changes Helsley is currently working through are unrelated to what was described as a small fix.

Still, data shows Helsley is throwing his fastball four percent less often in June than he did in April, and as a corollary, his slider is showing up nine percent more often (the discrepancy being a near-elimination of the curve). This month, the slider has accounted for 54% of his arsenal; the fastball is a mere 43.4%.

For a pitcher whose season is impressively marching forward, he has reached that path by choosing to pitch backward.

“I think so, yeah,” Helsley said when asked if that was a fair description of his current approach. “I’ve had good command of my slider all year. It’s felt good. My fastball has felt good too, honestly. I’ve just been missing just enough to be off the plate.

“When you get behind these hitters, it makes your job a whole lot tougher, and when you beat yourself out there, it definitely makes the job harder.”

Helsley’s current rate of four walks per nine innings is slightly down from last season’s total, but higher than the league average which hovers around three. His walk percentage, per Statcast, is in just the 21st percentile, suggesting that the fastballs which hover tantalizingly outside the zone may be what’s separating him from true dominance.

And still, despite all that, entering play Thursday, Helsley has converted 28 consecutive saves, making him the league leader in the total by three and representing the longest successful streak in the majors this season by a margin of 11 successful opportunities.

The Cardinals are eager to see the heights Helsley can reach if he can flip the switch to become even better than the best.