Canucks star Quinn Hughes is authoring a sequel to Erik Karlsson's historic season

When Erik Karlsson produced a historic 100-point campaign last season it seemed like an extreme outlier, but Quinn Hughes is well on his way to matching the Swede.

Hughes entered play Wednesday with a league-leading 30 points, putting him on pace for 129 in 2023-24.

While that total is probably out of reach, the 24-year-old is producing a worthy follow-up to Karlsson's triple-digit output — an effort that was the first of its kind since 1991-92 and one of just three 100-point seasons from defenders in years with a league-average save percentage above .900. The other two belong to Bobby Orr.

Reaching 100 points is far from a given for Hughes considering he'd need a 91-point pace from here, and he never topped 76 prior to this season. Based on what he's shown so far, there are a few reasons to believe he can join the triple-digit club alongside Karlsson — or at least obliterate his previous career-highs.

Hughes has been a better offensive engine in the opening weeks than he's ever been before, and there are multiple factors driving his unbelievable production.

Shot volume

Although Hughes has a shooting percentage that looks on the unsustainable side for a defenseman (13.8%), there's no denying that he's firing the puck more. The star blueliner is currently tied for 24th in the NHL in shots, which is a massive move up the leaderboards from 166th, where he sat last season.

Before 2023-24 he averaged 1.89 shots per game in his career and never managed more than two. This year he's putting 3.05 attempts on net per night. On a per-60 minutes basis that number sits at 7.5, nearly one-and-a-half times his previous career-high (5.1).

The most obvious result of Hughes getting his shot off more is an increase in his goal scoring. He's already tied his career-high in goals, and if he manages the 250 shots he's on pace for, a 20-goal season isn't out of the question.

His uptick in shooting also puts upward pressure on his assist rate, as he creates opportunities for his teammates to tip in pucks or bang in rebounds.

This was particularly apparent early in the season, when four of his first six helpers were the direct result of attempts on net — like his second point of the year, which came as a result of shooting from a low-danger area as opposed to threading a pass through traffic.

Shot quality

There is some puck luck associated with the scoring Hughes has done so far, but the Canucks captain hasn't simply taken the same shots he has in recent years and enjoyed better results.

Hughes is firing fewer point shots than he has for most of his career, choosing to work his way lower into the zone and utilize his wrister — a shot that has looked deadly this season.

On this overtime winner against the New York Islanders, for instance, he showed it's capable of making even elite goaltenders like Ilya Sorokin look completely overmatched.

In the first five seasons of his career, Hughes used his wrist shot as his predominant weapon. He went to it 58.6% of the time, but also leaned on the slap shot, which accounted for 30.5% of his attempts on net.

Like many NHL players, the blueliner is firing fewer clappers these days. Only 12.1% of his shots this season fit that description, while his wrist shot rate sits at 86.2%.

Hughes isn't just replacing slap shots with wristers, either. He's passing up long-distance looks for ones more likely to find the twine. There aren't many instances of the 24-year-old going right to the net, but according to NHL Edge data he's getting far more mid-range opportunities while shooting less from far out.

By converting slap shots and point shots into wristers closer to the net, Hughes is becoming a more dynamic scoring threat. This goal against the St. Louis Blues is a good example, as there was plenty of room to put a long shot on net with traffic in front — a decision that would've been completely justifiable. Instead, Hughes walked down inside the left circle before releasing.

Hughes probably isn't going to score on 13.8% of his shots from here on out, but the shots he's taking are better than they were in the past. He entered the season with a career shooting percentage of 4.9%, but he seems like a safe bet to exceed that in the remaining games of 2023-24.

The power play

When Karlsson managed 101 points last year, he did so with surprisingly little power-play production (27 points). As Hughes pursues a historic season in 2023-24, he's likely to generate far more with the man advantage.

The Canucks star managed 36 power-play points in 2022-23, and he's on pace for 60 this season. That's probably too much to ask, as Vancouver's power-play efficiency of 31.0% seems tough to maintain, but the unit still projects to be good. Last season the Canucks had the 11th-best power play in the league at 22.7% with essentially the same personnel.

Vancouver should be better this year, even if its PP% can't remain north of 30%. In the offseason, head coach Rick Tocchet transitioned his team to a "movement-based system" with more fluid roles that asks players to be instinctive as opposed to relying on set plays.

"You don’t always have to have touches in your spot," Tocchet told Thomas Drance of The Athletic before the season opened. "I hate that, like, ‘this is my spot.’ If that’s your spot, how are you going to chase these pucks down?"

That philosophy has created a more unpredictable unit. Here's a comparison of the shot attempts per 60 minutes from Vancouver's top power-play group in 2022-23 compared to this year:

Taking shots away from Miller and Pettersson may not seem intuitive, but the pair has combined for 10 power-play markers already — more than halfway to the 17 they managed all of last year. Instead of getting force-fed the puck from a static 1-3-1, the stars are getting it out of more organic sets, leading to excellent scoring opportunities.

A good example of that came from the Canucks' game last Thursday when Boeser, who is often camped out in front of the net, worked the side boards and an up-high position to give Pettersson an opportunity on an empty net.

Not only has the lessened structure and egalitarian shot distribution seemed to help the entire group thrive, it's also created more shots for Hughes in particular. That should allow the blueliner to keep padding his totals with power-play production.

He'll also be helped by the fact that there has been a significant uptick in penalties in the NHL this season. Teams are getting 3.43 power-play opportunities per game in 2023-24, the highest average the league has seen since 2010-11.

The overall offensive environment

While NHL scoring doesn't look like it did in Wayne Gretzky's heyday, it's notable that teams' average goal output per game (3.19) is a mark that hasn't been topped in 20 years. League-wide save percentage is at its lowest point since 2005-06, when clubs got a ludicrous 5.85 power-play opportunities per game.

If Hughes is going to do something special offensively, this is a good moment for it. That's particularly true for a blueliner.

Back in 2018-19, Brent Burns became the first defenseman to top 82 points in a season since Brian Leetch during the 1995-96 season. Since that time, there have been seven occasions of a rearguard producing at least a point-per-game pace and four seasons with 85 or more points.

Cale Makar's emergence accounts for some of that, but recent seasons have seen veterans like Victor Hedman, Roman Josi, and Karlsson obliterate previous career-high totals.

Increased power-play efficiency and the movement to four-forward units have helped, as blueliners have been able to become the fulcrum of their team's PP1 group.

An overall increase in goal scoring is also a factor, leaving a larger pool of assists to snatch up. Coaches have also seemingly become more tolerant of their blueliners tasking risks in aid of offensive production, perhaps thanks to the increased proof of concept of defensemen generating point totals like top-line forwards.

The bottom line

It would be tough for Hughes to join Karlsson in the triple-digit club by producing 70 more points in a maximum of 63 games. That would be an exceptional performance compared to his track record, and it's fair to assume a Canucks offense with an all-strengths shooting percentage of 13.9% will cool off a little in the weeks to come.

Despite the obstacles in his way, there's still plenty of reason to believe Vancouver's captain could author one of the most productive seasons an NHL defenseman has ever had.

Hughes should be able to score at a rate that didn't seem possible for him entering 2023-24 thanks to his increased shot volume and better shot selection. He's also a critical part of an excellent power play in a season where 5-on-4 opportunities have been unusually easy to come by, and the overall offensive climate plays into his hands as well.

The Canucks star is no guarantee to match Karlsson's 2022-23 point for point, but he seems to be taking a tangible step towards becoming a greater offensive threat — an impressive accomplishment for a guy who was already one of the most productive blueliners in the NHL.