How Butler’s escalation of situation puts himself and Heat in major jeopardy

Jimmy Butler’s calculated decision to damage his relationship with the Heat has created a potentially damaging scenario for each party.

For Butler, the decision to act out – resulting in an ongoing seven-game team suspension – seemingly hurts his ability to find a team willing to offer him a max contract or trade enough appealing assets to satisfy the Heat in a deal before the Feb. 6 trade deadline.

Unless Butler comports himself well and gives full effort if he returns to the team, his behavior also could make the Heat less inclined to facilitate a sign-and-trade this summer if Miami doesn’t find a trade it likes before Feb. 6. Miami is prepared to bring Butler back to the team late next week if it doesn’t find an appealing trade before that; he continues to work out at Kaseya Center with three Heat staffers who were left behind during the Heat’s West Coast trip.

The Heat knows that no contender has the cap space to make Butler a max offer (or anything close to it) this summer without needing the Heat’s help to facilitate the transaction.

By not trading Butler before Feb. 6 and potentially refusing to cooperate with Butler in a sign-and-trade, Miami would clear out at least $13 million in cap space ($23 million if Duncan Robinson is released) and $48 million to $58 million in flexibility under the tax line, while leaving Butler in a pickle in July.

If that happens, Butler could either sign a max deal with the rebuilding Brooklyn Nets (if they want him, which is highly questionable) or take well below a max deal with another team, with the Spurs able to clear out $28 million and the Rockets $19 million. Those first-year salaries would be far below the $52.4 million 2025-2026 Heat salary that he intends to opt out of, barring a change of heart.

As of midday Tueaday, the Heat had not been presented with a trade offer that it’s seriously considering.

Butler’s approach also has left the Heat in a vulnerable position:

For Miami, putting Butler on ice through this on-going six-game road trip leaves Miami without one of its best players in a competitive battle to avoid the draft lottery. Miami entered Tuesday’s game at Golden State standing ninth in the East, at 17-17.

Miami would keep its 2025 first-round pick if it misses the playoffs. But missing the playoffs this season would be damaging, because the Heat then would be required to send non-lottery protected first-round picks to Oklahoma City in 2026 and Charlotte in 2028 for trades involving Butler (in 2019) and Terry Rozier (last January).

If the Heat makes the playoffs, OKC would get Miami’s first-round pick next June and Charlotte would get the Heat’s 2027 first-round pick (if Miami makes the playoffs in 2026-27) or 2028 first-rounder otherwise.

But if the Heat misses the playoffs this season, OKC would be guaranteed to get the Heat’s first-round pick in 2026 and Charlotte would be assured of receiving Miami’s first-rounder in 2028, even if both are high lottery picks.

Losing the services of a motivated Butler — or not trading for a player who can compensate for his departure — would leave Miami severely diminished while competing with seven other teams (Orlando, Milwaukee, Indiana, Atlanta, Detroit, Chicago and Philadelphia) for essentially five playoff spots, behind Cleveland, Boston and the Knicks – who have created some distance in the Eastern Conference.

By lashing out and forcing the Heat’s hand, Butler has left Miami with a difficult question: Do we try to trade him now to increase our playoff chances so that two future first-round picks don’t lose their lottery protections? (Miami is trying to find an appealing offer.)

Or do we wait until the summer when there could be more trade options for Butler and far more teams with the cap space to help facilitate a three- or four-team trade?

Sensing the Heat is in a bind, other teams have presented Miami with unappealing offers.

The Heat “don’t like their hand at all” in the Butler trade market, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst reported this past weekend. “Right now, I think you’re seeing a lot of teams testing just how low they might be able to buy Jimmy Butler for.”

If Butler hadn’t tried to publicly force the Heat’s hand, other teams might be less inclined to low ball the Heat.

Keep in mind that there are nine teams that can create significant cap space to facilitate a multiteam Butler trade this summer; there’s only one team that has the cap space to do that now (Detroit).

Here’s the background on how OKC ended up with the Heat’s first-round pick in 2025 (if Miami makes the playoffs) or in 2026 (if the Heat misses the playoffs this season):

The Heat initially owed a 2023 first-round pick to the Thunder with draft protections that ran until 2026, with Oklahoma City acquiring this Miami selection from the Los Angeles Clippers during the 2019 offseason as part of the trade that sent Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to the Thunder and Paul George to the Clippers. The Clippers received this protected 2023 first-round selection from the Heat as part of the four-team trade that brought Butler to Miami during the 2019 offseason. Los Angeles sent that pick to Oklahoma City days later.

Then in February 2022, the Heat and Thunder agreed to amend the protections of that 2023 first-round pick to a protected 2025 first-round selection that would turn into a 2026 unprotected pick if it’s not conveyed in 2025. By amending the protections to push back the pick owed to the Thunder from 2023 to 2025, the Heat was then able to include an unprotected 2022, 2023 and/or 2028 first-round selection in trades.

The trade-off, though, is that the pick owed to the Thunder is still limiting the amount of unprotected first-round selections that the Heat can include in a trade more than five years after acquiring Butler.

But it’s important to note that amending the pick due OKC allowed Miami to draft Kel’El Ware and Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Most of the Heat’s other picks are unavailable to trade because of the deal that Miami made to acquire Rozier from the Hornets. To add Rozier, the Heat traded Kyle Lowry and a lottery-protected 2027 first-round pick to the Hornets that would turn into an unprotected 2028 first-round selection if it’s not conveyed in 2027.

With the Heat owing a first-round selection to the Thunder as early as in 2025 and to the Hornets as late as in 2028, that prohibits Miami from trading an unprotected pick from 2025 through 2029. That’s why only one of the Heat’s 2030 or 2031 first-round picks is currently available to be dealt without protections.

If Miami doesn’t deal away any picks between now and then, it will have two unprotected first-round selections to trade in 2030 and 2032 following the 2025 draft in June. That would be the case whether the Heat keeps its first round pick this June or not.

Among potential suitors, Golden State has decided not to pursue Butler, according to The Athletic. Houston officials have told NBA people that they’re not pursuing Butler. Butler’s camp has informed Memphis that he’s not interested in being traded there. San Antonio has emerged as a possibility, per podcaster Bill Simmons.

Phoenix continues to pursue Butler and is trying to find a third team willing to take Bradley Beal to facilitate the trade. But Beal has a no-trade clause and reminder reporters this week that he “holds the cards” on all of this.

The Kings reportedly are not considering offers for guard De’Aaron Fox, who would be a natural target in any Butler discussions. And New Orleans forward Brandon Ingram, who’s considered available in the trade market, remains out with an ankle injury sustained Dec. 7.

And to reiterate, there was no trade offer, as of midday Tuesday, that Miami considered enticing.