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Buccaneers playoff picture: Scenarios, chances Tampa Bay will make postseason

jacob camenker, usa today
·4 min read

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons have been engaged in a fierce battle for the NFC South over the last two months of the NFL season.

It will finally be decided in NFL Week 18.

Entering the final week of the season, the Buccaneers have the inside track to the NFC South title. They earned this after beating the Carolina Panthers in Week 17 and seeing the Falcons lose in overtime against the Washington Commanders.

Tampa Bay is in control of its playoff fate, but it doesn't have much room for error. If the Buccaneers can't win, they will be relying on a couple of divisional rivals to help them back their way into the postseason.

Here's what to know about the Buccaneers' playoff chances as they look to make the postseason for a fifth consecutive season.

NFL PLAYOFF PICTURE WEEK 18: Latest on AFC and NFC seeds, scenarios, wild-card games

Buccaneers playoff chances

The Buccaneers enter Week 18 with an 87% chance to make the playoffs, according to The Athletic's playoff prediction model. That was the highest percentage among the five teams vying for the final two playoff spots in the AFC and NFC.

How can the Buccaneers make the playoffs?

The Buccaneers have a two paths into the playoffs in Week 18. They are as follows:

  • The Buccaneers win or tie against the New Orleans Saints;

  • The Falcons lose or tie against the Panthers.

The Buccaneers are 14-point favorites in their game against the Saints, so they are expected to punch their own playoff ticket. However, if they slip up, they can still get in if the Falcons fail to win their Week 18 matchup against the Panthers.

The Falcons are 7.5-point favorites against the Panthers, so Tampa Bay's easiest path to the postseason is to win its way in.

Buccaneers playoff scenarios

If the Buccaneers make the playoffs, they will be either the No. 3 or No. 4 seed in the NFC. Below is how they can earn each seed:

3 seed

The Buccaneers will be the NFC's No. 3 seed if the following results occur:

4 seed

Any of the following results will net the Buccaneers the No. 4 seed:

  • Rams win or tie and Buccaneers win or tie;

  • Rams lose and Buccaneers tie;

  • Rams lose, Buccaneers lose and Falcons lose or tie.

NFL PLAYOFF SCENARIOS: Bengals, Dolphins, Broncos all fight to clinch last AFC spot

Buccaneers potential playoff opponents

If the Buccaneers are the No. 3 seed, they will face one of the following teams:

The Commanders have the inside track to the No. 6 seed, so they are more likely to face the No. 3 seed in the NFL playoffs.

And if the Buccaneers sneak in as the No. 4 seed, they will face one of the following teams:

The loser of the Lions vs. Vikings "Sunday Night Football" game will be the NFC's No. 5 seed while the winner will get the No. 1 seed and a much-needed bye. Detroit would get the No. 1 seed in the event of a tie, so Minnesota is slightly more likely to be the No. 5 seed in this matchup.

NFL playoff picture Week 18

AFC

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, AFC West winners, No. 1 seed)*

  2. Buffalo Bills (12-3, AFC East winners, No. 2 seed)*

  3. Baltimore Ravens (12-5, AFC North winners, No. 3 seed)*

  4. Houston Texans (9-7, AFC South winners, No. 4 seed)*

  5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, wild card No. 2)*

  6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7, wild card No. 2)*

  7. Denver Broncos (9-7, wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Cincinnati Bengals (9-8), Miami Dolphins (8-8).

NFC

  1. Detroit Lions (14-2, NFC North leaders)*

  2. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3, NFC East winners, No. 2 seed)*

  3. Los Angeles Rams (10-6, NFC West winners)*

  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7, NFC South leaders)

  5. Minnesota Vikings (14-2, wild card No. 1)*

  6. Washington Commanders (11-5, wild card No. 2)*

  7. Green Bay Packers (11-5, wild card No. 3)*

In the hunt: Atlanta Falcons (8-8)

An asterisk (*) denotes teams that have clinched a playoff spot. Teams that have clinched division titles are noted accordingly.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Buccaneers playoff chances: How Tampa Bay can win AFC South in Week 18