Brightest Timeline, Darkest Timeline: Calgary Flames

While it wasn’t intended this way, the Calgary Flames’ summer could stand to represent the completion stage of a two-step process following their last postseason appearance.

Where the focus was on defence and goaltending before, this summer was about dissolving the imbalance between the Flames’ top- and bottom-six forward groups — even if it meant taking a major piece from the back end to help accomplish it.

With this in mind, as well as the decision to scrap Glen Gulutzan for new head coach Bill Peters, let’s examine the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Flames.

Brightest Timeline

Doubling down on their strong underlying numbers by hiring a coach that has installed the systems to accomplish the same, the Flames are expecting to fill the net this season with an increase in team talent and pure puck luck.

From a talent standpoint, with top-six additions Elias Lindholm and James Neal, as well as quality depth pieces Derek Ryan and Austin Czarnik, the Flames are clearly far better equipped to make good on potentially dominant shot share. With Lindholm and Neal slated for the top two lines, the third member of the possession-heavy 3M line, Michael Frolik, will drop down to help form the much-needed bridge to the bottom six. Though not caved in shift to shift last season, the support staff killed the Flames on the scoreboard.

The Peters-led Carolina Hurricanes and the Flames finished second and third, respectively, in score-adjusted Corsi last season, and yet both wound up in the negatives in even-strength goal differential. With a massive increase in quality in the lineup and positive regression likely on the way, you have to like their chances at turning that around.

Should everything else remain the same, the Flames should challenge for the Pacific Division crown and make some noise in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Darkest Timeline

Of course, the scorers can only control so much.

Trading Dougie Hamilton — the team’s most valuable defenseman from last season — to the Hurricanes for Lindholm and Noah Hanifin significantly weakened what was previously the Flames’ strength: a rock-solid top four. At least it looked that way on paper.

T.J Brodie needs a return to form on the top pair with Mark Giordano, and Travis Hamonic must overcome his struggles from one season ago on the second unit with Hanifin if the Flames are to offset the loss of Hamilton. If Brodie and Hamonic continue on a downward trend, and Hanifin doesn’t take a step forward, the Flames risk trading one deficiency for another and have the bottom completely fall out on the season.

And yet even beyond a balanced scoring attack and two solid pairs, Calgary could still be left vulnerable. While in his debut season with the Flames he was able to turn in the sort of goaltending that could have rescued the Flames in previous years (his support, instead, was the issue last season), Mike Smith is 36, and if not yet helpless to inevitabilities of age, is inching toward it.

Worst case: Peters’ system remains strong, but unkind on netminders and Smith shows his age, performing in the bottom third among NHL starters; Hamonic and Hanifin fail as a pairing, and the defensive corps fails to find a rhythm; and the Flames still don’t have enough fire up front, losing out on the final wild card spot to the Oilers.

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