Brentford's run-in analysed

This time last year, Brentford had lost just one Premier League game in 2023 and the Bees were destined to end the season with notable wins over Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur and champions Manchester City on their way to finishing ninth in the top flight.

Thomas Frank's side earned praise for their smart and effective approach, both on and off the pitch, and their powerful end-of-season surge saw them come up just two points shy of a European spot.

Opponents, pundits and rival fans were united in their quest to uncover the secrets behind the Bees' success and, despite talk regarding the west London club's set-piece prowess and mastery of a defensive low block, Frank perhaps put it best last February when he stated that his side were "unbelievably in sync".

Although it was missed by the majority, as the Bees blazed a trail towards their best-ever Premier League finish and the fourth-best top-flight placing in their history, Frank uttered some prophetic words after a 1-1 draw against Arsenal at the Emirates had dented the Gunners' tilt at the title.

As the Dane sagely noted: "I know that if you're not on it, or get three key injuries, or are a little bit unlucky, then you can be in big trouble."

Fast forward to this evening’s clash against a Manchester United side which has faced plenty of its own challenges under Erik ten Hag, and Brentford's 2023/24 campaign has been considerably influenced by a number of the factors highlighted by their head coach last February.

It is obviously hard to quantify or measure a team's allotment of luck in a season, but there have certainly been plenty of games where the margins separating the Bees from valuable Premier League points have been wafer-thin.

10 of Brentford's 17 defeats this term have been by a single goal and from the harsh penalty awarded against Mark Flekken in a 1-0 loss at Newcastle to Ben Mee's debatable red card against Aston Villa; from Scott McTominay's stoppage-time double at Old Trafford to not one, but two late match-winning Kai Havertz headers there have been a catalogue of sliding doors moments that have seen a growing disparity between points and performances emerge.

Further, the destabilising impact injuries can have on a team has been clearly in evidence with Brentford shorn of the services of Rico Henry, Aaron Hickey, Kevin Schade and Josh Dasilva for almost the entire season.

Throw in significant spells on the sidelines for Bryan Mbeumo, Ben Mee and Ethan Pinnock and, of course, Ivan Toney's suspension, and Frank's fateful words a year ago carry more than a ring of truth.

Throughout his tenure, Brentford's head coach has spoken about the need for his team to evolve and “add layers” to their gameplan, and while there have been some bitter pills to swallow this season in terms of results, there has been evidence that the Bees retain an enviable adaptability.

An improved ability to dictate tempo and possession in games has been on show for much of this season, and a number of statistics illustrate that the Bees - despite their frequently changing line-ups - are intent on adding greater in-game control and variety to their armoury.

A willingness to play in their own penalty box and invite opponents to press has been evident during the current campaign; only Roberto de Zerbi's Brighton (2,330) have taken more touches in their own penalty area in the Premier League than Brentford (2,261) this term.

Frank's side have also switched play more frequently, the Bees (91 switches) currently ranking seventh in the top flight for this stat category, while retaining their trademark practicality and aversion to risk: no team has been dispossessed on fewer occasions (204).

In this regard, it is worth noting the impact made by summer signing Mark Flekken between the sticks. With 8.8 per game on average, the Dutch stopper ranks second for accurate long balls in the Premier League and he excels in this area much like David Raya (10.8 per game in 2022/23) did before him.

However, a closer look at Flekken's distribution reveals that Brentford are using their goalkeeper far more in build-up play, with the Bees' no.1 averaging more successful short passes per game (18.6) than his predecessor (12.8) last term. Impressively, Flekken has only misplaced five short passes all season, fewer than the likes of Guglielmo Vicario (14), André Onana (12), Ederson (10) and Emiliano Martínez (9).

After 12 saves and an assist against Man City in February, Flekken has settled into the swing of life at Gtech Community Stadium and will provide a solid base upon which Brentford can build over the remainder of the campaign.

Boss Frank has previously referenced the transition he wants to make from Championship promotion winners to 'Brentford 2.0' and, partly through necessity, his 'Class of 2024' have become more of a free-flowing threat.

Although the Bees' reliance on set-pieces was over-played at times last season, there is no doubt corners, throw-ins and free-kicks were the cornerstone of their attacking threat, which was further enhanced by a knack for winning and converting penalties.

With Ivan Toney on the rampage, no team scored more than Brentford's 23 Premier League goals from dead-balls last season. Of those, 13 came courtesy of Toney (7 set-pieces/6 penalties), with only Harry Kane (8 set-pieces/5 penalties) able to match his Three Lions' team-mate in this specialism.

Although the Bees rank fourth in the Premier League for shots from set-pieces this season, with 123, they have had to adapt their style of play in Toney's absence and there has subsequently been a noticeable uptick in the number of goals they have netted from open play.

The percentage of Bees goals from open play has leapt from 59 per cent last term to 72 per cent this season and, rather remarkably, the combined Premier League goals of Yoane Wissa (7) and Neal Maupay (6) in 2023/24 have all stemmed from live play - Toney's clever free-kick on his return to action against Nottingham Forest in mid-January underlining the undoubted set-piece threat he brings.

In the context of the danger Maupay and Wissa pose from open play and Toney's dead-ball prowess, Bryan Mbeumo's likely return to the starting line-up against the Red Devils is even more mouth-watering from a Brentford perspective.

Although his strike partner in crime Toney leads the line, Brentford have desperately missed Mbeumo's pace and creativity, with the Cameroon international's importance underlined by the fact he remains the Bees' most productive player this season with seven goals and three assists despite being ruled out since early December with an ankle injury he sustained against Brighton.

A goal against United would bring up Mbeumo's half-century for the Bees across all competitions, and 49 goals and 36 assists in 192 games underscore the quality and end product he has consistently shown in a Brentford shirt.

On Saturday, for possibly the first time this season, Frank and his backroom staff will be able to tailor full-strength striking options to an opponent - and Mbeumo's likely involvement will certainly give his side more cutting edge in transition. Only Liverpool goal machine Mohamed Salah (5) scored more Premier League goals from counter attacks than Mbeumo (4) last season and he will no doubt be a catalyst for the Bees on the break.

Players are starting to return at the right time for the Bees and, although the United fixture may arrive a tad too soon for him, Ethan Pinnock is another key player back to vie for a starting spot.

Pinnock has been a consistently impressive presence at the heart of the Bees' defence ever since he signed from Barnsley in 2019, and the Jamaica international remains a statistical giant in the Premier League.

Despite being ruled out with an ankle knock since Brentford's 2-0 win at Wolves in February, Pinnock has amazingly made more clearances (141) than any player across Europe's top-five leagues this season and also ranks joint-fourth in the Premier League for aerials won with 93.

If there was one man who didn't deserve to finish on the losing side at Old Trafford back in October, when Scott McTominay's aforementioned injury-time brace consigned Brentford to a 2-1 defeat, it was Pinnock.

That afternoon, the central defender made a staggering 17 clearances, while also making more interceptions (3) and blocking more shots (5) than any player on the pitch at the Theatre of Dreams.

To return to Thomas Frank's well-observed quote, the small margins at play in the Premier League mean that underperformance, injuries to key players and a run of bad luck can scupper any side in the top flight, especially those operating with finite resources.

With just over a quarter of the season remaining, however, the Bees can take heart from outstanding recent displays against Arsenal and Chelsea, and the imminent availability of key men Toney, Mbeumo and Pinnock.

Starting against a Manchester United team buoyed by a thrilling FA Cup win over Liverpool last time out, Frank will hope his Brentford side are “at it” between now and the end of the season.

A visit or two from Lady Luck wouldn’t hurt either, would it?!

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