Who will break out for Penn State? Will they make the playoff? Our 2024 season predictions

It is officially the first game week of the season for Penn State as they gear up for the opener against West Virginia, and it’s time for us to go on the record for how we see the season playing out. Who will break out? Who will be the team’s MVP? Will the Nittany Lions make the College Football Playoff?

Let’s take a look at our predictions.

Offensive breakout

Jon Sauber: IOL Cooper Cousins

A breakout on the offensive line might be tougher to quantify than at tight end or quarterback, but you’ll know it when you see it. And I firmly believe you’ll see it from Cousins this fall. Head coach James Franklin has been effusive with praise for Cousins, who enrolled in January and is about to spend his first college season as a legitimate rotation piece along the offensive line. I’ll go as far as to say that he’ll not just be rotating in, but he’ll be starting by the time the Nittany Lions get to November.

Josh Moyer: TE Tyler Warren

Listen, I get it. Warren had seven touchdown catches last season, so he’s not exactly an unknown commodity in Happy Valley. But he wasn’t technically the No. 1 tight end last season — that was fourth-round NFL draft pick Theo Johnson — and I’m fully expecting him to land on the national radar this year. Michigan’s Colston Loveland is widely looked upon as the Big Ten’s best at the position, but here’s a bold prediction: Warren will finish with more catches, receiving yards and touchdowns. He’s an All-Big Ten talent, and he’s primed for a breakout season.

Bret Pallotto: QB Beau Pribula

This is about Pribula as much as it is about new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, who hasn’t been shy when talking about his desire to make sure the team’s best 11 players — Pribula is in that group, he’s said — touch the field as much as possible. Who knows what it ends up looking like, but once you cross off the team’s offensive alphas, Pribula rises to the top as a potential breakout.

Defensive breakout

Sauber: DT Zane Durant

There are plenty of players to choose from here. Linebacker Tony Rojas feels like too obvious of a choice after how well he played last season. As does former Georgia CB A.J. Harris, who isn’t too far removed from being a five-star recruit. So I’ll go with Durant, who should be able to bring the kind of pressure that’s hard to find from the interior. He was a member of the heralded 2022 recruiting class, but hasn’t received the same level of praise that the rest of the group has. That will change this year when he makes an all-conference team.

Moyer: DE Dani Dennis-Sutton

Dennis-Sutton sat behind two NFL draft picks last season in Chop Robinson and Adisa Issac, who were selected in the first and third rounds, respectively. But Dennis-Sutton was first in the rotation, played in every game and still managed to earn third-team all-conference by the coaches. Now that he has another season under his belt, another year improving that pad level and building off potential that made him a five-star recruit, Dennis-Sutton is the defense’s most obvious breakout candidate. Prediction: Double-digit tackles-for-loss and unanimous first-team All-B1G.

Pallotto: Safety Zakee Wheatley

Often praised as a ballhawk, Wheatley is set for a larger role in a new defensive system. He’s not expected to be the top dog, but has spent the past couple of seasons surrounded by a handful of teammates who have gone to the NFL.

Season prediction

Sauber: 10-2 (CFP berth)

This is going to seem like a chalk pick (it is) but I don’t think the outcome will mirror the roller coaster that I expect this season to be. That’s because I have Penn State beating Ohio State — I’m skeptical of Buckeye QB Will Howard — and USC. So where do those two losses come from? Wisconsin and Purdue. The former would be much easier to stomach than the latter for fans. But West Lafayette can be a house of horrors and the Nittany Lions will be coming off three straight games against Wisconsin, Ohio State and Washington. That being said, I still expect a comfortable playoff berth for PSU when early December rolls around.

Moyer: 10-2 (CFP berth)

Penn State should be on the CFP bubble for most of the season — but, in the end, I see the Nittany Lions just squeaking in. And I attribute that to one primary reason: New offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. We saw how much the offense improved when James Franklin made another smart hire in 2016 (former OC Joe Moorhead), and Kotelnicki has the kind of track record that makes me think he’ll make the most out of PSU’s weapons. The cupboard is not bare here. Of course, I’m still predicting a loss to Ohio State — aren’t we all? — as these Nittany Lions can’t yet be considered elite.

Pallotto: 10-2 (CFP berth)

There are no bonus points for creativity in this futile exercise. For fans that look at the broader college football landscape, they may find joy in the Nittany Lions’ recent consistency. For others willing to brush that aside, it could be yet another season defined by missed opportunities and whatever happens in the playoffs. Want to give yourself more to debate? Ask if 11-1 or 9-3 is more likely.

Team MVP

Sauber: QB Drew Allar

There might not be more pressure on a quarterback in college football than Allar. He was heralded as the signal caller who would take the Nittany Lions to the promise land and that didn’t happen in his first year as a starter — and frankly it may have been a step too far to expect it then. But it feels like it could be now or never with his first opportunity to leave for the NFL coming after this year. I think he leaves after the season and he does so because he ends up going in the first round of the draft after making second team All-Big 10 — behind only Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel.

Moyer: Allar

Do I really need to explain this pick? New (competent) offensive coordinator, improved receiving corps, additional year of experience — Allar has a lot of the ingredients for a successful season. James Franklin has hinted that Allar will take off running more in OC Andy Kotelnicki’s offense and, given all the motions and misdirections in the scheme, Allar should more easily find opportunities for big gains. Allar didn’t have the season many hoped last year, but he still threw 25 touchdowns to two interceptions. He’ll be even better this season — good enough to win team MVP and to move back into first-round NFL draft consideration.

Pallotto: Allar

Remember when we established there are no bonus points for creativity? Running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen are likely to split carries and there is no established No. 1 wide receiver. There are a few candidates on defense, but they won’t have the ball in their hands nearly every time it’s snapped. Allar will, and what he does with it will define the Nittany Lions’ season.