Brad vs. the Book: Sympathy for the Devils

Slaying the sportsbook is a monstrous task. Some days bettors take up residence in a penthouse suite. Other times, they curl up in the nearest ditch, shirtless. In an attempt to avoid complete destitution, I will post my picks, whether profitable or penniless, through the NCAA tourney. Check out Thursday’s selections below:

North Carolina (21-4, 12-12 ATS) at Duke (18-5, 9-13)

Red Sox/Yankees. Bears/Packers. He-Man/Skeletor. Among age-old rivalries, sports related or not, Duke/Carolina is the most quintessential.

[Tourney Pick’em is open! Sign up now | Bracket Big Board]

Entering their 243rd meeting, the ACC adversaries are heading in similar directions. After a rocky January in which Duke lost its fearless leader, Coach K, and dipped below .500 in conference play, it’s ascending, emerging victorious in three straight registering pivotal road clashes against Wake Forest and Notre Dame. Luke Kennard and Grayson Allen’s offensive brilliance combined with freshman hotshot Jayson Tatum’s improved interior execution have saved face in an otherwise underwhelming campaign.

[Pat Forde: UNC game provides teachable moment for Coach K’s Blue Devils]

North Carolina is also climbing. Outside of its implosion at Miami, it’s reeled off nine wins, impressively topping likely NCAA Tournament participants Florida St., Syracuse, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame. However, each of those contests were recorded with a seas of Carolina blue in the stands. As has been the case for almost everyone in the ACC, the road, too, has proven treacherous for the Heels. Yes, they knocked off Clemson, Wake Forest and Boston College away, but, ignoring their dismantling in Coral Gables, they’ve not clashed with a team of Duke’s caliber in hostile territory.

In terms of pure talent and depth, UNC has the edge, particularly in the post. Paint campers Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks and Tom Bradley are why it ranks No. 1 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. Undeterred, expect Allen and Co. to attack the rim in an attempt to draw contact and space the floor. Considering Carolina’s defensive shortcomings, especially along the perimeter, that strategy could pay enormous, difference-making dividends.

Both teams have their defensive shortcomings and are excellent in transition, which means a high-scoring affair is inevitable, but considering the raucous environment and Carolina’s lack of true road tests, expect the Cameron Crazies to party hard.

Fearless Forecast: Duke (-2.5) 85 North Carolina 81

Oregon (21-3, 13-9 ATS) at UCLA (21-3, 13-11)

The Ducks’ journey back into the top-10 has been long and arduous. It’s overcome injury, ineptitude and shocking close calls. But what hasn’t killed Dana Altman’s team has made it stronger. Setting the court ablaze in its three-point throttling of Arizona – they drained a school record 16 treys in that game – Oregon is arguably the hottest team in the country. In Pac-12 play, it’s eclipsed 1.20 points per possession in a contest six times and tightened its grip defensively (0.94 pts/poss allowed last 11). ‘Mighty’ these Ducks most certainly are.

UCLA, a widely perceived Final Four frontrunner only days ago, has many pundits backing off their original predictions. Yes, this team, spearheaded by insanely talented point man Lonzo Ball, is an offensive juggernaut. Raking a college basketball best 1.25 points per possession and sliding inside the top-five in four additional offensive categories, the Bruins are the definition of ‘explosive.’ However, gross inefficiencies on defense act as a counterbalance. Pac-12 opponents have tallied an unattractive 1.06 points per possession and netted over 37 percent from three against them. UCLA’s rotations, screens and transition blunders are extremely problematic. That, my friends, is “Easy D.”

In assists to field goals made both squads are two of the nation’s best, but Oregon’s distinct glass advantage and substantially more rigid defense give it the edge. Look for Dillon Brooks, Tyler Dorsey and versatile enforcer Chris Boucher to maintain their Pac-12 superiority.

Enjoy the Bill Walton acid trip.

Fearless Forecast: Oregon (+5) 86 UCLA 83

Purdue (19-5, 13-7 ATS) at Indiana (15-9, 11-11)

Indiana is a projected No. 10 seed? When the season tipped off in November, only brain-diluted, roaming gypsies saw that coming. Right?

Down OG Anunoby and offensive spark James Blackmon and on the wrong side in three of their last four, the Hoosiers are fighting for their NCAA Tournament life, an unbelievable free fall after upending Kansas and North Carolina in November. Their scoring bombardment hasn’t waned (1.09 pts/poss in the Big Ten), but plagued by turnovers (21.2 TO% last 11) and a Swiss cheese defense (1.11 pts/poss allowed dead last in conference), they’ve calculated a formula for losing. Don’t hold home court against Purdue, Michigan and Northwestern, and an NIT appearance could be inevitable.

At first blush, Purdue has the characteristics of a second-weekend NCAA Tournament team, at a minimum. The Boilers are monstrous in the post, lethal from distance (42.3 3PT%), battle tested and rigid defensively (No. 21 in defensive efficiency). They also boast arguably THE biggest matchup nightmare in the country in Caleb Swanigan, a 6-foot-9 rebounding machine with an accurate mid-range game who also splashes 50 percent from three. He leads the country in double-doubles. Though Carsen Edwards and PJ Thompson have generally played great, they’re sometimes inconsistent. Admittedly, that’s nitpicking.

Ultimately, what Indiana defense takes the floor will decide the game. Thomas Bryant, who’s prone to attracting whistles, must stave off the zebras in order for IU to compete. If he’s forced to the bench early, Isaac Haas and Swanigan will surely feast. If not, and the Hoosiers have a fighting chance. In the end, Purdue’s recent stellar road play (wins at Michigan St. and Maryland) should be the difference. Yes, even with Blackmon expected to return.

Don’t make me call Charles Oakley!

Hammer the Boilers.

Fearless Forecast: Purdue (-2) 78 Indiana 73

Other Leans: Middle Tennessee St. (-8.5), Nebraska (+8), Gonzaga (-18), SMU (-6.5)

Parlay Play: Duke (-2.5), Purdue (-2), Middle Tennessee St. (-8.5)

Year to date (From Twitter): 164-166-4 ATS *Shakes fist at ‘book*

Want to throw elbows at Brad? Follow him on Twitter @YahooNoise.