Brad vs. the Book: North Carolina to cash in Duke rematch

Slaying the sportsbook is a monstrous task. Some days bettors take up residence in a penthouse suite. Other times, they curl up in the nearest ditch, shirtless. In an attempt to avoid complete destitution, I will post my picks, whether profitable or penniless, through the NCAA tourney. Check out Saturday’s selections below:

Duke (23-7) at North Carolina (25-6)

Stakes for the rematch are higher than some suspect. North Carolina, after losing to Virginia earlier in the week, hasn’t sewn up the final No. 1 seed. Meanwhile, Duke, which staved off a hard-charging Florida St. team late on Monday, now sports a sterling profile, one strong enough to entice a top seed, with a little assistance.

Steal a victory inside the Dean Dome and the Blue Devils, a squad many believed were the prohibitive national champ favorite preseason, could finish the season on the highest line.

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Duke, offensively, is in the same classification as prolific scorers UCLA, Oklahoma St. and, surprisingly, Wake Forest. It spreads the floor, attacks off dribble and drains, at times, endless threes (37.6 3PT%). Averaging 1.20 points per possession, it has the scorers – Luke Kennard, Grayson Allen and ascending freshmen Jayson Tatum – to bombard anyone in the country. However, its uneven defense and marginal rebounding outside Tatum and Amile Jefferson are its primary weaknesses.

On the opposing side, North Carolina is a long, athletic and ferocious inside. It leads the nation in offensive rebounding percentage and ranks top-15 nationally in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. The Heels’ high-flying transition skills and crisp ball movement are also plus attributes. Mitigating Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks, Justin Jackson and Tony Bradley is a challenge for anyone.

The Devils nearly matched their rival board-for-board and rained 13 threes in the first matchup, an eight-point victory. In order to keep pace the second time around, it must duplicate that effort. With Allen, who scored 25 points when the teams met previously, ailing due to an ankle injury, the odds of a repeat are on par with a Shaq/JaVale McGee reconciliation.

Fearless Forecast: North Carolina (-6.5) 88 Duke 81

Kansas (27-3) at Oklahoma St. (20-10)

Dead and bloated at 0-7 midway through the Big 12 season, the Cowboys have written the ultimate comeback story, improbably etching in stone a single-digit seed come Selection Sunday.

As stated previously, Oklahoma St. is a powder keg offensively. It ranks No. 1 nationally in offensive efficiency, nets over 40 percent from downtown and generates copious second-chance opportunities. Its point guard, Jawun Evans, is a catalyst and the second-best floor general in the country behind Lonzo Ball. His sharp passing skills and all-points accuracy are nearly unrivaled. His contributions combined with what Phil Forte and Jeffery Carroll bring to the table are why OSU is nearly unstoppable putting ball into basket.

Spearheaded by National Player of the Year candidate Frank Mason, Kansas is a beef-jerky tough bunch that’s often played with fire and escaped unburned. In contests, like West Virginia and most recently Oklahoma in which KU faced sizable deficits, it ratcheted up pressure late, created turnovers and erased leads. Overall, the rugged Jayhawks are balanced, ranking top-25 in offensive and defensive efficiency, precise from three (40.8 3PT%) and active on the offensive glass.

The Evans vs. Mason showdown is Batman vs. Superman like. Kansas bested OSU 87-80 back in mid-January. Given the 180-degree turn the Cowboys have taken since, Vegas whales are sure to hammer the home team. So should you.

Fearless Forecast: Oklahoma St. (-1) 82 Kansas 80

Purdue (24-6) at Northwestern (21-9)

Nathan Taphorn’s completed full-court toss, which finished with a Derek Pardon game-winning layup, will forever live as “The Pass” in Northwestern basketball lore. That play provided great relief for a nervous fanbase worried its NCAA Tournament hopes would be dashed yet again. History-making events like that are why March is unrivaled and undefeated when it comes to sports drama.

Though the Wildcats are still very much riding high from Wednesday night’s thriller over Michigan, they have a very tall task, quite literally, Saturday in Evanston. Lane cloggers Caleb Swanigan and Isaac Haas clobbered them on the boards 41-30 in the first matchup, a Purdue 21-point victory, combining for 35 points and 21 rebounds. To compete, Sanjay Lumpkin, Barrett Benson and newly minted folk hero Pardon will have to pack the paint in an attempt to keep the behemoths at bay. More importantly for Northwestern, Scottie Lindsey, who missed the first matchup with a bout of mononucleosis, needs to show up offensively. With the shooting guard back in the mix the past four games, the ‘Cats have averaged a meek 0.99 points per possession.

Purdue, when thriving at a high level, is one of the more well-rounded teams in the nation. The Boilers not only command the glass, they defend steadfastly and can carve up defenses both inside and out. Swanigan, the nation’s leader in double-doubles, is the definition of ‘matchup nightmare.’ His length, midrange, post and rainmaking abilities (55.9 2PT%, 45.5 3PT%, 79.3 FT%) make him extraordinarily difficult to contain. Throw in the marksmanship of Dakota Mathias, Vincent Edwards, P.J. Thompson and Ryan Cline and Purdue is a handful.

The Boilers, 6-3 in true road games, perform calmly in hostile territory. Knowing the distinct advantage they have on the glass, they should take the buzz out of Northwestern’s high.

Fearless Forecast: Purdue (PK) 70 Northwestern 65

Other Leans: Louisville (-8.5), DePaul (+7), Michigan St. (+4.5), Arizona (-9), UCLA (-21), Texas A&M (+8), Colorado (-2.5), Miami (+7.5), Fresno St. (-11)

Parlay Play: Colorado (-2.5), Arizona (-9), DePaul (+7)

Year to date (From Twitter): 236-213-5 ATS

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