Brad vs. the Book: No reason to be bearish on Baylor

Slaying the sportsbook is a monstrous task. Some days bettors take up residence in a penthouse suite. Other times, they curl up in the nearest ditch, shirtless. In an attempt to avoid complete destitution, I will post my picks, whether profitable or penniless, through the NCAA tourney. Check out Wednesday’s selections below:

Baylor (20-1) at Kansas (19-2)

Indisputably, Scott Drew is college basketball’s most under-appreciated and most misunderstood head coach.

Unfairly raked over the coals by his own fanbase and self-proclaimed hoop ‘experts’ alike for years, the Baylor shot caller deserves considerable adoration. In his 14 seasons in Waco, he’s built a powerhouse from ashes, reaching the NCAA tournament six times and the Elite Eight twice since 2008. Over the past six seasons, he’s registered 145 wins, more triumphs than perceived highfalutin programs as Florida, Notre Dame, Indiana and Maryland.

Drew has his club firing on all cylinders, putting it on track for its first ever NCAA Tournament No. 1 seed. It’s accumulated an almost obscene 9-1 tally against KenPom top-50 teams, losing only to West Virginia in Morgantown. Turnovers have plagued the Bears at times, but the interior execution of Jonathan Motley, Jo Lual-Acuil and Terry Maston – the reason why Baylor ranks top-10 in offensive rebounding percentage and top-20 in two-point percentage defense – combined with point man Manu Lecomte’s unselfishness and precise outside shooting (41.4 3PT%) explain the lopsided overall record. The Bears are more grizzly than gummy to say the least.

Kansas is still riding the emotional high of last weekend’s triumph over fellow blueblood Kentucky. Though undermanned and outsized, the Jayhawks prevailed by coaxing turnovers and outworking the ‘Cats inside. Game MVP Josh Jackson was nothing short of brilliant totaling 20 points and 10 boards.

Unlike Kentucky, Baylor has not only the bigs, but the midrange shooters necessary to combat Kansas’ zone. It also possesses the length and defensive wherewithal to neutralize KU’s perimeter bombardment. If Lecomte can seamlessly control the offense and minimize turnovers, the Bears nip at the Jayhawks’ buckled shoes and cover.

Fearless Forecast: Kansas 72 Baylor (+6.5) 68

Northwestern (18-4) at Purdue (17-5)

There may be no other team in the country as bewildering and perplexing as Purdue.

Blessed with the biggest frontcourt in the nation, a stonewalling defense and adequate marksmen, the Boilers, at first blush, have the makeup of a Final Four contender. However, inconsistent execution at guard combined with bizarre rebounding lapses have proven costly, evidenced in inexplicable road losses against inferior Iowa and Nebraska. Still, as its top-three A/FGM output and top-30 ranking in offensive and defensive efficiency imply, this is a squad capable of greatness, if it can overcome the occasional brain sprains.

Northwestern is humming. The Wildcats, who many have already declared are a virtual lock for their first ever NCAA Tournament berth, are conquering the opposition with unyielding defense, second-chance opportunities and selfless execution. At 7-2 in Big Ten action, they are breathing down the necks of Wisconsin and Maryland for conference superiority. Maintain the status quo and Bryan McKintosh, Vic Law and Sanjay Lumpkin will officially earn hero status.

Ultimately, Purdue, featuring a pair of long drinks in Caleb Swanigan and Isaac Haas, has too much firepower on the offensive end for Northwestern to stave off. The Boilers not only rebound extraordinarily well, they can humiliate opponents from three. Swanigan, Vincent Edwards, PJ Thompson, Dakota Mathias and Ryan Cline, each nets at least 41 percent beyond the arc. Bottom line, they have too much beef and rainmakers for the Wildcats the stave off.

Northwestern has been a covering machine of late, cashing easily in six consecutive games. Wednesday night in West Lafayette, however, that streak comes to a screaming halt. Bank on Purdue going all LeBron-roast-job-on-Charles-Barkley versus the ‘Cats.

Fearless Forecast: Purdue (-9) 77 Northwestern 65

Florida St. (18-4) at Miami (14-6)

Only a couple short weeks ago, the Seminoles were a surging top-10 team that had rightfully earned a seat at the big kids table. Then calamity struck. In what’s become an all too familiar occurrence for ACC goliaths on the road, FSU logged dismal performances at Georgia Tech and Syracuse, setbacks which killed the buzz and raised legitimate doubts.

Compared to previous iterations, this year’s Florida St. is sound defensively and, rare in the Leonard Hamilton era, explosive on offense. Its 1.145 points per possession scored is the school’s highest mark since the 2006-2007 campaign. Dwayne Bacon, Xavier Rathan-Mayes and an ascending Jonathan Isaac have consistently delivered both inside and out. However, it’s the contributions of overlooked options Terrance Mann and Jarquez Smith that’s critical to the team’s success. Mann, for example, couldn’t hit the broadside of the barn in losses to ‘Tech and the ‘Cuse, going 0-for-6 from the field.

Miami, winners of back-to-back home contests against Boston College and North Carolina, has turned a corner. Stumbling out to a 2-4 start in league play, the ‘Canes have strengthened defensively (0.972 points per possession allowed last two games) and found their groove offensively (1.084 pts/poss last two). Davon Reed and Ja’Quan Newton are Jim Larranaga’s steadiest producers, but when freshmen Bruce Brown, who dropped 30 against the Heels, is on point, the ‘Canes are quite destructive.

Given Florida St.’s recent struggles on the road – they’ve yielded an uncharacteristic 1.113 points per possession in its past three away games – and Miami’s upturn, the smart money is on the home team.

Fearless Forecast: Miami (-2) 70 Florida St. 66

Other Leans: Georgia Tech +9.5, Arkansas -4, Illinois St. -7.5, Seton Hall +6.5, USC -1.5

Parlay Play: Purdue -9, Georgia Tech +9.5, Miami -2

Year to date (From Twitter): 135-130-3 ATS

Want to throw elbows at Brad? Follow him on Twitter @YahooNoise.