Brad vs. the Book: Cash money is in the Cards at Carolina

Slaying the sportsbook is a monstrous task. Some days bettors take up residence in a penthouse suite. Other times, they curl up in the nearest ditch, shirtless. In an attempt to avoid complete destitution, I will post my picks, whether profitable or penniless, through the NCAA tourney. Check out Wednesday’s selections below:

Louisville (22-5) at North Carolina (23-5)

Villanova, Kansas and Gonzaga, assuming disaster doesn’t strike, are virtually cast in stone on the No. 1 seed line. However, the fourth and final spot remains up for grabs.

Protect the Dean Dome Wednesday night and North Carolina will be one step closer to cementing its place among college basketball’s presumed elite.

Coming off their finest defensive performance in the Roy Williams era limiting sputtering Virginia to a vomit-inducing 0.67 points per possession, the Tar Heels, who have at times napped defensively, are maximizing effort at both ends. It’s why they rank inside the top-27 nationally in offensive and defensive efficiency. Also highly active on the glass – Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks and Tony Bradley explain UNC’s No. 1 ranking in offensive rebounding percentage – accurate from three (37.2%) and judicious with the rock (16.5 offensive TO%), they are an athletic, fast-paced and relatively deep club that can really pile up the points.

With indispensable parts Quentin Snider and Mangok Mathiang back on the floor and shooting guard Donovan Mitchell tickling the twine, Louisville has found its stride offensively, evidenced by its otherworldly 1.53 points per possession scored against Virginia Tech. It failed to guard effectively in that contest, but, for the most part, its pressure-packed zone/man mixture has frustrated the opposition. The Cardinals do rank No. 5 in the country in defensive efficiency. Equally adept protecting the ball and equipped to play at variable paces, they match up nicely with UNC on paper.

Whoever claims the battle of the boards will ultimately determine the winner in Chapel Hill. Along with Mathiang, Jaylen Johnson, Ray Spalding and Anas Mahmoud must match Carolina’s lane cloggers pound-for-pound, an achievable requirement. In what should be a fairly high-scoring affair, throw a Beggin’ Strip to the underdog.

Fearless Forecast: North Carolina 78 Louisville (+5.5) 75

Duke (22-5) at Syracuse (16-12)

After getting jobbed by a ridiculous moving screen call at Georgia Tech last weekend, Syracuse is painted into a very tight corner. Currently my first team OUT of the projected field, it’s now or never for it to impress the Selection Committee.

Its home game against Duke and a road matchup at Louisville present ideal opportunities.

The Orange, in the midst of an untimely three-game losing streak, have lost their edge defensively. As the Yellow Jackets proved, teams are purposely speeding up the pace against them to prevent their signature 2-3 zone from setting. Consequently, easy high-percentage shots have been converted leading to unwanted deficits. To neutralize Duke, a squad loaded with fleet-footed scorers, it’s imperative for Syracuse to control tempo, tighten the zone and create turnovers. Tyler Lydon and John Gillon, who’ve been broke of late, must also find their stroke.

Duke, thanks to Jayson Tatum’s maturation, has rapidly turned its season around after slumping in January. The Devils are riding the crest of a seven-game win streak knocking off the likes of Notre Dame, North Carolina and Virginia. Blasting foes both inside and out they’ve turned a corner, despite Grayson Allen’s recent brick laying. The leg sweeper has swished just seven of his last 28 field-goals. Collectively, they remain a work in progress defensively, but their relentlessness on offense has masked bruises.

Bottom line, if Luke Kennard, Matt Jones and Allen can consistently net shots over the zone, Syracuse will spoil a golden opportunity. In what should be a jam-packed Carrier Dome, however, the comfortless Orange somehow, someway rise to the occasion.

Fearless Forecast: Syracuse (+4) 75 Duke 74

Butler (21-6) at Villanova (26-2)

Revenge, from the Wildcats’ perspective, is a dish served not just cold, but downright frigid. The last time they faced off with Butler, in early January at Hinkle Fieldhouse, they were downed 66-58, one of two setbacks suffered this season.

The defending national champs are moving briskly along. Though they play in a loaded Big East, a league that will likely churn out at least six NCAA Tournament bids, they’ve only occasionally been challenged. Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins, Mikal Bridges and rapidly ascending guard Jalen Brunson, who dropped 10 dimes and scored 22 points at Seton Hall, are blowing fools out. Providence, back on February 1, was the last team to keep the final tally within 10 against them. ‘Nova is vulnerable in the post, but its tremendous defense (0.94 points per possession allowed), crisp passing, routine bombings from three (37.8 3PT%) and free-throw execution (80.6 FT%) have crippled competitors.

There are many who continue to refute Butler’s standing among forecasted No. 4 seeds. Kelan Martin, their best player, isn’t exactly a household name, but the Bulldogs rarely turn the ball over, light it up from distance (37.1 percent) and clamp down defensively (0.97 points per possession surrendered).

Still, Villanova’s balance, defense and hunger for retribution are reasons to break out the hammer.

Fearless Forecast: Villanova (-9.5) 77 Butler 64

Other Leans: Kansas -14, Southern Illinois +9.5, Minnesota +4, Oregon -5, Nevada -5, Seton Hall -3.5

Parlay Play: Villanova (-9.5), Louisville (+5.5), Southern Illinois (+9.5)

Year to date (From Twitter): 204-197-4 ATS

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