Bowl projections: After jumping ahead of Michigan State, Michigan's in line for the Rose Bowl
The second edition of the College Football Playoff rankings gave us some inconsistency.
Oregon is ahead of Ohio State in the top four in large part thanks to the Ducks' win over the Buckeyes in Week 2. Meanwhile, Michigan State dropped to No. 7 and right behind Michigan at No. 6 after losing to Purdue in Week 10. Michigan State and Michigan are both 8-1 and the Spartans beat the Wolverines in Week 9.
Committee chair and Iowa athletic director Gary Barta said Michigan State dropped behind Michigan because the metrics that the CFP committee uses reflect that Michigan is the better team.
"The Michigan-Michigan State discussion really started last week, and I would just kind of summarize that the committee went back and forth, and really consensus was that Michigan probably is a more complete team," Barta told reporters Tuesday night. "Statistically offensively, defensively, they're ranked higher than Michigan State in just about every category.
"That being said, the committee gave great credence to the Michigan State win head-to-head against Michigan. That discussion went back and forth last week. This week the same discussion goes on. What's changed? Michigan won and Michigan State lost. So for this week, we slotted Michigan State at seven."
Remember, these rankings are fluid. And the only set of rankings that matters is the final one on Dec. 5. So while the committee's twisted logic may get you worked up, take solace in the fact that it could even get more twisted that it untwists itself before the final rankings.
Let's get to the latest set of bowl projections.
College Football Playoff semifinals
Orange Bowl (Dec. 31)
Georgia vs. Oregon
No change to this matchup from a week ago. With games against top-seven opponents in the final two weeks of the season, Ohio State will likely jump Oregon if it wins out.
Cotton Bowl (Dec. 31)
Ohio State vs. Alabama
It's an Alabama conundrum. We're confident in the committee's confidence in Alabama. If the Tide enter the SEC title game at 11-1 and lose a close game to Georgia it'll be the first team to make the playoff with two losses. Would the committee drop Alabama to No. 4 and create a rematch? We're not sure about that.
New Year's Six games
Peach Bowl (Dec. 30)
Wake Forest (ACC champion) vs. Notre Dame (at-large)
Nothing changes with this game. Wake is still undefeated in the ACC after that "non-conference" loss to North Carolina. The Demon Deacons have a big test against NC State on Saturday while Notre Dame plays at Virginia.
Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 1)
Michigan State (at-large) vs. Cincinnati (at-large)
The Spartans fall out of the Rose Bowl for now given the committee's weird logic to drop them behind Michigan despite the head-to-head win two weeks ago. Just keep on winning, Cincinnati.
Rose Bowl (Jan. 1)
Michigan (Big Ten) vs. Utah (Pac-12)
If both Michigan and Michigan State lose to Ohio State it's hard to see the committee jumping the Spartans back over the Wolverines barring a massive difference in the margin of victory. But we're also not ruling any justification out for anything the committee does.
Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1)
Oklahoma (Big 12) vs. Texas A&M (SEC)
The Aggies jump into the third New Year's Six slot for an SEC team after a win over Auburn. Ole Miss could get back into this spot with a win on Saturday. Auburn's also in the mix too, especially if it can upset Alabama.
Other bowl games
Bahamas Bowl (Dec. 17)
Charlotte vs. Ball State
Cure Bowl (Dec. 17)
Buffalo vs. Boise State
Boca Raton Bowl (Dec. 18)
App State vs. Florida Atlantic
New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 18)
UTEP vs. Air Force
Independence Bowl (Dec. 18)
BYU vs. UTSA
LendingTree Bowl (Dec. 18)
South Alabama vs. Kent State
L.A. Bowl (Dec. 18)
Oregon State vs. San Diego State
New Orleans Bowl (Dec. 18)
UAB vs. Louisiana
Myrtle Beach Bowl (Dec. 20)
San Jose State vs. Middle Tennessee
Potato Bowl (Dec. 21)
Nevada vs. Kent State
Frisco Bowl (Dec. 21)
SMU vs. Coastal Carolina
Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 22)
Army vs. East Carolina
Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 23)
Miami (Ohio) vs. Marshall
Hawaii Bowl (Dec. 24)
Fresno State vs. Houston
Camellia Bowl (Dec. 25)
Troy vs. Eastern Michigan
Quick Lane Bowl (Dec. 27)
Maryland vs. Western Michigan
Military Bowl (Dec. 27)
Memphis vs. Miami
Birmingham Bowl (Dec. 28)
Mississippi State vs. Liberty
First Responder Bowl (Dec. 28)
West Virginia vs. Northern Illinois
Liberty Bowl (Dec. 28)
Baylor vs. Tennessee
Holiday Bowl (Dec. 28)
Virginia vs. USC
Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Dec. 28)
Kansas State vs. Wyoming
Fenway Bowl (Dec. 29)
UCF vs. Boston College
Pinstripe Bowl (Dec. 29)
Syracuse vs. Minnesota
Cheez-It Bowl (Dec. 29)
Pitt vs. Iowa State
Alamo Bowl (Dec. 29)
Oklahoma State vs. UCLA
Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Dec. 30)
N.C. State vs. Florida
Music City Bowl (Dec. 30)
Arkansas vs. Iowa
Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 30)
Purdue vs. Arizona State
Gator Bowl (Dec. 31)
North Carolina vs. Kentucky
Sun Bowl (Dec. 31)
Clemson vs. Washington State
Arizona Bowl (Dec. 31)
Utah State vs. Central Michigan
Outback Bowl (Jan. 1)
Penn State vs. Ole Miss
Citrus Bowl (Jan. 1)
Wisconsin vs. Auburn
Texas Bowl (Jan. 4)
Texas vs. LSU