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Booms and Busts: Browns, Bucs and Dolphins go from potential fantasy football afterthoughts to bringers of hope

scott pianowski
Fantasy analyst
·11 min read

If you like scoring, if you like drama, if you like lead changes, the early window from Week 8 was your kinda jam.

Seven of the eight games sailed over their posted totals. A bunch of matchups came down to the final drive or even the final play. Fantasy points all over the place. The NFL as it oughta be.

This is the type of slate where this column could be a bottomless cup. Alas, there's a targeted space we need to fit. Let's start the analysis by looking at three offenses — Cleveland, Miami and Tampa Bay — giving us a fresh reveal this week, a first look at a new or refurbished setup.

Jameis Winston delivered a 29-24 upset win over Baltimore on Sunday, but he did something even more important for Cleveland: he gave the city hope. The Browns were obviously shipwrecked with Deshaun Watson's lousy play for seven weeks, but Winston jump-started the offense in his first start and engineered the stunning result. Winston threw for 334 yards and three touchdowns, aiming almost all of his passes to four fantasy-relevant players: waiver dynamo Cedric Tillman (7-99-2), tight end overlord David Njoku (5-61-1) and receivers Elijah Moore (8-85-0, 12 targets) and Jerry Jeudy (5-79-0).

To be fair, there were negative plays, too. Winston lost a fumble and he threw at least two interceptions that the Baltimore defense kindly dropped. He's always going to have some trick-or-treat to his game. This performance also came against a Ravens pass defense that's been horrible all year. But after watching Watson's struggles for the first seven games, we needed something like this to cleanse our palates. The Browns passing game is alive again. In a year where fantasy wide receivers have been dropping like flies, Cleveland's offense has relevant pieces we can consider as adds and possible starters.

Miami's first game with Tua Tagovailoa back was a mixed bag. The Dolphins lost to the Cardinals, 28-27, and Tagovailoa was limited to 6.2 yards per attempt. The best news for Tua is that he took just one sack and didn't withstand a lot of punishment. And fantasy managers were thrilled to see buoyancy back in the Miami offense, because the Dolphins skill players did basically nothing when Tagovailoa wasn't available.

De'Von Achane had the best of it for Miami, 147 yards and a touchdown on 16 touches. Raheem Mostert wasn't efficient (nine carries, 19 yards) but he punched in a couple of short touchdown runs. Tyreek Hill (6-72-0) and Jaylen Waddle (4-45-0) go down as slight disappointments for Week 8, though things at least are trending upward. Miami could find itself in shootouts the next two weeks, on the road against the Bills and Rams. Tua's return wasn't a smash, but this offense is going to be fun again very soon.

The Buccaneers fell to the Falcons, 31-26, as Kirk Cousins torched Tampa Bay again — four touchdown passes. But Baker Mayfield went down as the gallant gunslinger. He threw for 330 yards and three touchdowns — against two picks — and did his best despite a receiver room that's missing superstars Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

The Mayfield plan without his star receivers was to focus on the non-wideouts. Cade Otton was a star on National Tight End Day, rocking a 9-81-2 line on 10 targets. He's the dominant target here while Evans rehabs. Mayfield also steered 13 targets to the backfield duo of Bucky Irving (7-40-0) and Rachaad White (5-38-1). Meanwhile, every plausible Tampa Bay waiver-wire add fell flat — nobody from the trio of Jalen McMillan, Trey Palmer and Sterling Shepard made it past 35 yards.

At least the Tampa Bay scheme kept the boot on the accelerator. The Buccaneers had 50 pass attempts versus 22 runs — partly by design, partly by game script — and Tampa Bay might be chasing the game in November, with the Chiefs and 49ers waiting on the schedule. The trio of White, Irving and Otton are all slotted for success, and Mayfield still is fantasy-viable even if his wide receiver room remains a work in progress.

I don't know who made up this silly National Tight End Day holiday, but the players seemed to embrace the spotlight. Kyle Pitts scored twice, a nifty duel with Otton on the other side. Trey McBride romped for 9-124-0 at Miami. Tucker Kraft did his thing, another long catch and another short touchdown. Sam LaPorta finally clicked (6-48-1), even with the Lions not needing to throw much in a thrashing of Tennessee. Mark Andrews is scoring every week now. Even Evan Engram bailed out with a late touchdown. Fantasy's trickiest position from last month became the easy button in Week 8.

Josh Jacobs jumped to the top of the RB board, rushing for 127 yards and two scores (25.0 fantasy points) at Jacksonville. Kudos to Matt LaFleur, who found a way to get the win even after losing Jordan Love to a groin injury. The Packers have still maintained a credible offense when Malik Willis has been forced into action this year, and that has LaFleur's fingerprints all over it.

Jacobs, of course, had company. Joe Mixon (21.4 points) had 134 total yards and a gorgeous touchdown run against the Colts. Jonathan Taylor (18.2 points) had a similar line in the same game, 117 total yards and a score. Derrick Henry (14.2 points) was limited to 73 rushing yards but of course, he scored like he always does. James Conner (13.9 points) wouldn't be denied on a short touchdown run at Miami. It's glorious when your smartest players are your toughest players, too.

Marvin Harrison Jr. put on a clinic at Miami (6-111-1), with several high-difficulty catches. DeVonta Smith got behind the Cincinnati defense for a touchdown, capping a snappy 6-85-1 day. He was the WR6 (17.5 fantasy points) when the early slate ended. Consumer confidence has surely rebounded in both cases.

There was nothing wrong with Barkley at Cincinnati, as he averaged 4.9 yards per carry on his 22 totes. He was physical and athletic. But Jalen Hurts scored three rushing touchdowns, two of them from the one-yard line and Barkley did not score. So long as the Tush Push keeps succeeding, you have to figure the Eagles keep dialing it up. Barkley's managers see the 11.6 fantasy points and know that score could easily be in the 25-30 point range. We also should note that Barkley hasn't seen much receiving work in two of his last three games.

For most receivers, nine catches and a touchdown (15.9 points), that's a heck of a day. But Chase made just 54 yards on his nine receptions, and that comes out to less than five yards per target.

For weeks I've been wondering why the Bengals failed to fully commit to their best offensive weapon, with Chase leading the position in fantasy points despite a target count that was barely in the top 20. But it's possible Chase's top form won't return until Tee Higgins is back — you obviously need someone else to draw coverage from the defense. Only two non-Chase wideouts had a catch for Cincinnati in the loss to Philadelphia; other than Chase, Joe Burrow focused on his tight ends and running backs. It resulted in a mere 280 yards of offense, which simply isn't good enough — after a sharp opening touchdown drive, the Bengals struggled to move the ball.

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• It's a little sad that 262 yards passing and two touchdowns represent excitement for the Patrick Mahomes crowd. The Raiders defense isn't much. Mahomes was merely the QB14 on a high-scoring day. The best thing we can say about Mahomes is that he draws Tampa Bay next week, an outstanding matchup. But he still hasn't seen a Top 10 quarterback finish since Thanksgiving Week 2023, and that was 11 months ago, kids.

• Would you rather have Bo Nix or Mahomes for the rest of the season? It's a viable question. Remember, our game isn't about the names, it's about the numbers. Nix didn't do a lot of scrambling against Carolina but he scored his fourth rushing touchdown, and he had the best passing game of his rookie year. Baltimore's secondary is next, and we've seen that unit get roasted all year. Nix obviously remains a work in progress, but Sean Payton would draft him again.

• The Aaron Rodgers fantasy log by week: QB26, QB12, QB10, QB20, QB18, QB15, QB14, QB17. There are no more cards for the Jets to play (other than maybe get a new kicker). Davante Adams should eventually start to play a little better, but keep expectations in check for a 32-year old receiver. It's possible Tom Brady spoiled us as to what's realistic for a quarterback in his 40s.

• Ladd McConkey answers the one key question for any fantasy candidate on a lesser passing offense: is he the best player in his receiver room? It's an emphatic yes. McConkey is never going to be a volume king in the buttoned-up LAC offense, but we can at least plan on 6-to-8 targets a week. He would have seen more work Sunday had the Saints fought back at all.

• Calvin Ridley is like an unanswerable SAT question. Consider his yardage totals from Week 3 to Sunday: 9, 5, 0, 42, 143. The Patriots are a neutral matchup next week, the Chargers a bad draw the following week. Ridley managers hope Mason Rudolph can stick around — there's some rapport here — but Ridley doesn't offer any week-to-week floor.

• Obviously the Colts have a future bet on Anthony Richardson, but at what point in 2024 does Shane Steichen consider what's best for his team right now? Richardson's accuracy is awful, and his decision-making — both in the pocket and as a runner — is also a gigantic problem. I realize there's a capped upside if Joe Flacco plays, but this could be a playoff team with him — and the locker room deserves to have a chance every week. This team is shipwrecked with this version of Richardson, and we can't start any of the Indy wideouts with any confidence, even as they gain regular separation.

• Kyler Murray crept over 20 fantasy points but that wasn't anything wonderful on a day with big scoring; he was merely the QB13. I'm never surprised when his rushing component evaporates, as it did at Miami. At least he started to show rapport with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride was also excellent. I'm worried Murray could be a fantasy brick the next two weeks, up against the Bears and Jets.

• Last year after the bye, the Cowboys went all-in on CeeDee Lamb and he broke football for two months. Apparently we're at that point again, rocking a 13-146-2 line at San Francisco. You could legitimately draft Lamb first today if your league were starting fresh.

• Zay Flowers always seems to be roasting someone downfield, but the touchdowns are elusive. He's scored just one time this year, and has only six touchdown catches over 24 games as a pro. The Baltimore offense has two dynamic rushing sources that get fed most weeks, and the target tree is wider than fantasy managers would prefer. Flowers is an inconvenient truth in our game, someone who's more valuable in real life than fantasy.

• Tank Bigsby was a minor disappointment as the RB28, but at least the Jaguars finally showed a willingness to use him in the passing game, a notable change from everything we'd seen prior. The Jacksonville RB room becomes even more important as cluster injuries are taking down the receiver group (Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis are hurt, while Christian Kirk is out for the year).