BNN - Monday, May 27, 2024 - 03:00 p.m. (ET) - Segment #3

presidential cycle has a very unique pattern that is different than all years combined. So we have a couple of graphics here. I am going to brit first one up here and try to explain it to everybody. Now this is part of the series of indicators that we have on "berman's call" pro-eyes. We talked about that many times over the years. So here is the sell in may and go away pattern. What this blue line is the one month forward return on average from 19 -- let's go 1928 till today. >> Andrew: okay. >> Okay? So when we are here so here we are in may. This looking forward a month the worst returns historically. And as you take this period from may through to october seasonally this nets out to about 1% of the return where this period and this period net out to about 8% return and from end to end it's 9% average annual return but the weakest period is typically starts in may and runs through october. We kind of know all that. But in a presidential election year the seasonal patterns are very, very different. And all these things -- reasons are behavioural and it has to do with how congress spends money, how governments kind of front people for votes by spending money and so forth and so I am wondering if we can bring up the next chart. So this is the four-year -- fourth year only again from 1928 till today but only presidential years. The other chart was every year total. So we could see that during presidential years historically the first part of the year really bad returns. But that's not the case this year. They have pretty good returns this year so far where because of that historically we would get a summer rally and run-up where the average monthly return was better. >> Andrew: in presidential years? >> In presidential years so historically. My point today is what's happening this year is very, very different than what's happened historically and I wouldn't put a lot of weight behind sell in may and go away this time around. Okay. So that's really the big message. Now seasonally again, what it's setting up for now is still some weakness for the next call it couple of weeks but really once we get into the next few months it's more of a buy dips market historically. So that's kind of the narrative now in an election year. But, andy, let me ask you. This election year how normal is it? You got biden u got president trump. Maybe goes to jail, maybe he doesn't. Maybe we have president trump ii. >> Andrew: concerns about democracy itself. >> And have a lot of january 6th type concerns which bother me and keep me up at night I got to tell that you. So you have a very unusual and I am just saying from a chart standpoint don't let the -- this year's seasonal really dominate your thinking. >> Andrew: that is interesting, though, the summer tends to be decent in a presidential election. >> It is. And it has to do historically with the promises governments make to get re-elected. Market get excited about it. Maybe not this time around. >> Andrew: okay. Larry, thank you very much indeed. Larry berman is back every monday 3:00 p.m. Eastern with his taking your questions and his analysis on large cap stocks and ETFs.

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to the end of the trading day. Here's what we've got for you as we countdown to the close. Well td in the rearview mirror. We've got other banks though, to contend with this week. What does the weakness in td tell us about what we could see from the bank's evan mancer will be joining us. And one of the outperformers we've seen over the past year is nfi. The electric bus maker. We've got ceo paul soubry to discuss the business and demand for electric buses. That's coming up in the 4:00pm eastern hour. But first, here's a look at some of the top stories we're tracking for you right here in the bnn bloomberg newsroom. The can competition bureau is launching an investigation into canada's airline industry. The bureau says recent events have raised questions about the state of competition in the industry and that domestic air travel market is concentrated with only 2 major airlines. The agency also says that airfare in canada appears to be relatively high. And new airlines appear to face challenges entering the canadian market. Shareholders of indigo books and music have voted to approve a deal that would see the retailer become a private company. The $2 and $0.50 per share big came from 2 firms contrlled by gerry schwartz, the husband of indigo chief executive heather reisman. Indigo says it expects the transaction to close in june and its shares to be delisted from the tsx soon after. Red lobster's canadian operation says it will ask an ontario court to recognize and enforce the company's chapter. 11 bankruptcy in the u.s.. The restaurant chain currently has 27 locations across canada and is listed as a related debtor in the U.S. bankruptcy proceedings. Red lobster shut dozens of locations in the U.S. this month as it grapples with rising costs and more competition across the restaurant industry. All right, just the tsx to contend with with that lower than average of volumes that we're seeing some moves and they're generally higher. We've got 9 of the 11 sectors trading at a bit of a recovery here in first majestic pan american. Those silver leading the charge. Keep in mind, we're got a pretty weak hand off from the markets last week, the tsx falling on a weekly basis for the first time in 3 weeks. (Funky hip hop music) hello, you are watching the close. I'm amber kanwar. We're counting down on a little bit more of a thin trading day because we've got our U.S. counterparts that are on holiday from memorial day, but plenty of stuff to contend with here north of the border and to look ahead to what we've got on dec. Certainly a number of banks set to report their latest results. Let's bring in greg taylor. E c I o and portfolio manager at purpose investments. Greg, thanks so much for joining us. How are you thinking about the banks and the set for this quarter? >> Well, I don't think we're looking for too much from the backs this year. I looks like it's going to be, I'm more of I brought the air and we're trying to is what the community consumer really, what the impact of interest rates and higher mortgages, ice on them. So the big problem came back says there's really not growth. And we'll see you on average a year earlier, earnings down I think it's hard to get really excited about the sector right now until we have more stability in the consumer, which is going to come for a cause some back to canada. So not a lot of girls in the bank. So I think we're really watching. Pc also presents for credit losses. See if we do have an increase in aside, there's not a lot of growth in capital markets has been a lot of ipo actually. So probably more muted car with for paying banks right now. That's interesting. You're right about capital markets. And I wonder how that might show up in. >> In a national bank, which is more domestic exposed to that situation versus the strength that >> Td definitely showed in capital south of the border. >> U.S. markets been way healthier as we've seen a lot for ipos. Rafferty, issuances of races, florida last week with some of the mining sector, but really not as much I think most people would be exciting for, so there's not lot of capital markets is safe today. So it's all been come back to retail banking weakness in the consumer. I think it's going to be hard to see a lot of growth in that >> You know, generally, it seems like the tsx hot hand is coming from the materials sector coming from the energy sector and recently even utilities seem to be getting a little bit of I ferry de sprinkled on it. >> Yeah, it's amazing. Utilities. Normally they trade in in relation to the bond

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