BNN - Monday, May 27, 2024 - 09:00 a.m. (ET) - Segment #6

parliamentary party. I think there's a lot shock last week when he suddenly rolled out the front of a number 10 and got drenched making and that's that's the that really has been the story, the sauce, the campaign, it's been a bit of a >> Hapless stop by the conservatis by rishi see not case out of court. A few gaffes, you know, going to get very good aulds. I didn't make election predictions be no going to get frank right on stand favourite kingship affecting show on concept of victory tonight. Looks like at a labour victory, but it's a no surprise that we finally got the election going to happen see a, it was surprising it came in july. And so you know, if we're going make comparison to canada, where maybe people having fatigue with the trudeau the fact that we've had quite a few conservative governments this point, maybe that's just fatigue over that 14 is a conservative 14 is a consensus government with many different prime minister, state of the state in a cameron was was promised a for a long period of time. And then we've had the huge paired of type. Instead, he's come inside it. Since the since the brexit vote, inevitably I get bored of the government, they call, but there's a lot of problems in the u.k.. And I think the big challenges any incoming incoming government just lied to be labour one. It's not a great situation that they're inheriting. You know, it's interesting I saw reporting over the weekend in the united states around how U.S. president joe biden describes american economy. And that even if there's a lot of people who are gainfully employed right now, people don't necessarily >> Feel it in their pocketbook. And bloor canopies, specifically on u.k., noting that over the course of this parliament, household income has declined notably. But then when they do, some survey work on how households in the U.K. feel it was something like 8% poor than their european peers in 2007. The gap by college 2022 had widened to 20%. So that obviously would predate whatever rishi sunak's had to get out there and talk about on the economic front. But but how important is that issue of how people feel about their wealth, when it comes to who they vote for each and the standards of living in the U.K. is about the many people that it's been in decline for a long period of time. A gdp per capita has declined or like you could argue, a lot of that's down immigration, but even silence him canada. >> Even it's been best flat, if not for many people because of huge amounts of inflation. And that's been the story. The last couple va is massive energy bills. People fail huge might pour in the and so at the end of the day for the prime minister to call this general even on the surface, things don't look all that promising. Why go ahead and do that well, and this is why people surprised the one thing that happened on that day that announced the election is you can't go back to a 2.3% on inflation. So that's the best inflation because I've had in 3 yeas. And that was the only thing if you want point to anything that was logical to call the election. Now that was any bit that is logical, decided that things probably going to get much better. That could been within next 6 weeks, because inflation has come down that much, but that's really not much other than he was going to have to call an election at any point at some point before the end of the people still expected to be about the and what would you canada has to think about in terms of how this all might play out. I think there's been a lot of focus on how a mean look, the prime minister are prime was just in you know, almost almost put himself in to the american presidential campaign trail. It almost felt that way sort of positioning for with the tone canada will look like going into the fall. But what about canada's relationship with the U.K. specially now we have a summer election. >> In great britain. >> Yeah, I think I think that an incoming prime minister of customers, probably something he's going to be more teens to, to it, to justin trudeau. And so, you know, I think if anything that will probably improve relationships, I think 100 the U.K. see historically, always had very strong relationships. I think that the challenge for canada has with the U.K. and we just have to wrap up, I think of this g7 finance ministers countries like kind of U.K. are very constrained in what they can do. There's not much money they can spend their way into grace. There is no grace and they've got a very difficult circle to square in terms of trying to find out whether it's going to come from the moment. Us going to be different things. It's a global reserve currency. The U.S. can things other countries calm kind of in the u.k., they can do those things and it would feel to me tell how you feel about it, like there's more parallels in the housing market of canada and the U.K. than there are in the canadian and american. >> Stories because you have this those scene. Affordability issues and and supply constraints. It would seem that the U.K. is grappling with the canada's grappling with seems almost old when he come pad geographically the size of the U.K. with canada. But the

reality is that the U.K. is a much more of cj graphically. But key to the southeast of england, but also the cities of massive near the populated huge amounts immigration coming same story in canada. And now we've got high interest rates and that's going to be rinsed and thing to watch. I think of the next get to 2 years as people come you know, coming off the those really good rates they got during the pandemic with still waiting to see what implication that hasn economies and back to you can kind of and doesn't feel like it's washed 3 yet. We still want to see what happens. Yeah, and in this country will see what happens with about how much money they're setting aside for any of the uncertainty around that. David, thanks very much. Good to see jump. David oliver, public affairs strategist and founder of minerva strategy, joining us here in studio we mentioned is the memorial day holiday in the united states. Many americans will find themselves at the airport today. As for canadians, they are currently planning their summer vacations and a majority are looking at some domestic travel. This should serve as a tailwind for the domestic tourism sector. Ctv has more in this report. >> Pack your bags and get ready. To take off going to italy going to france greece. The summer travel season is here. This couple heading to to tie the knot. No issues with their des dipping into their savings to save the date. Everyone was like super thrilled for an excuse to like travel because they haven't been able to for the last like 3, 4, years despite economic pressures, deloitte's summer outlook shows this year. More canadians are willing to vacation more than three-quarters of canadians surveyed say they plan to spend the same or more on summer trips this year, while only 18% won't be travelling at all. With the average canadian paying roughly $2400 for their vacation this year, people really weren't able to travel much in in 2021. 22. >> And there's still a little bit of pent-up demand that people really want to take that trip. A list of camp. But while travellers are willing to spend more this summer, the also prioritizing keeping trips local three quarters of canadians plan to stay in the country with two-thirds of those planning a road trip this summer. And of those hopping on a plane, nearly half will fly within canada airports across the country, including here at pearson in toronto say the travel season really picks up in late june and this year's expected to be busier than last with more passengers per day. >> Christmas holidays for tree troubles. The last thing they want to cut based on surveys. >> That said, like we we've already seen with inflation all over. Who knows how long that will last. >> So a trip abroad for now, knowing they can always come back mines like doing something domestically one time. I know like out east, some lesser gorgeous to backpack in their own backyard. Kamil karamali, ctv news, toronto. >> Well, guess interest rates could be one consideration in how you spend and where you go. We're fast approaching the next interest rate decision from the bank of canada. One determining factor might be with the latest gdp numbers look like will get those later this week. We'll have a preview coming up. If you are an entrepreneur, you know what it means to be always invested. Grabbing hold of an idea and seeing it through, meeting old challenges with fresh solutions and believing in the power of tomorrow. We know because we're the exchange for entrepreneurs and we're always investing in public markets, in business, in growth, in you. ( ) ( ) The infiniti qx60 exemplifies modern luxury. With powerful suv performance, three rows of comfort, and a sleek-yet-daring design. ( ) Lease a 2024 qx60 from 0.99% apr for up to 24 months. Visit INFINITI.ca. ( ) This is what your ear looks like filled with wax. Here's a cotton swab. Watch. It just pushes the wax in. Now here's Wush, the new, safe and effective way to clean your ears. Just Wush the wax out. That's insane. The triple stream safely clears dirt and wax buildup. It feels incredible. Get 15% off and free shipping at Wush.ca Still up at 2 am? Again? Tonight, try PureZzz All Night to help increase total sleep time. Unlike some other sleep aids, our extended release melatonin slowly releases up to 6 hours. ZzzQuil PureZzz All Night. Fall Asleep.Wake refreshed. ( )Vertical farmingis on the rise.

As agriculture evolves,we're harvesting value in ai. Go beyond the obviouswith a global perspective. Agf. Invested in Discipline. While the bank of canada is said to make its latest interest rate decision next B.C. of late. We've seen expectations of a rate cut climbing, but there are still plenty of folks who are navigating the inflation part of the story wondering whether that will hold the bank back. Meantime, before that bank of canada decision, we will get another read on canada's economy, giving us a better sense of what ultimately happened in the 1st quarter. Will get that at the end of this week. For a preview, we're joined by derek holt, vice president and head of capital capital markets economics at scotiabank derek is last got an update on the economy for the 1st quarter. It seemed like we were running out of some steam coming to the end of q1. What's your best guess on what the 1st quarter as a whole looked like. I don't think takes order to over any words in 2, 3%, or one with 2 and a quarter percent for 1st annualized gdp growth. >> Quarter and a little bit of a no statistics, it was essentially unchanged. Loved in the month of march. So we posted no growth in that particular month, but will also get important guidance on what of statistics canada expects for april jp out of these numbers. And expect that to be quite strong and think it could be a tie with 2 of the strongest prince that we've had about the past year and a half or so. And so there could be cement another round of ongoing resilience in the canadian economy into the 2nd quarter, extending the pattern in which they, the bank of canada has seriously underestimated resilience in the canadian economy for about a year and a half. What's the in your opinion factor that we've missed him, even with the retail sales data that we were chewing on last week. I think we saw. >> Some categories, cars, that kind of stuff where there was some resilience. >> Yeah, I think there's been too much focus mortgage resets in my opinion, that and have a mortgage. The 40% who do is about a quarter of them were among the most pressured and the rest of consumer picture is doing quite nicely. We just created 90,000 jobs in the latest month summers where we've been on a tear in terms of job creation for an extended period of time. We've got a very decent wage gains and year-over-year terms on a month-over-month annualized. So the momentum still strong and most of the measures of excess savings and that worth in canada and the household sector are still quite buoyant. Anything, a little bit more so than the united states on the same side of the picture. And so on balance, I think you have a strong set of consumer fundamentals along with high commodity prices, positive terms of trade, ongoing fiscal stimulus, stronger balance sheets. You hear too much of the negative narrative on canada, not enough in terms of the resilience, in my opinion. So against that backdrop, when so many people are curious about what's going to happen with interest rates, it would sound like those would be the the, the pieces of the pie that would allow the bank of canada some flexibility. >> If they're not quite ready to pivot lower rates come june. The interest rate decision next how much is the inflation story factor into equation? >> I think you're right. I think that to try very carefully and they have some wiggle room here in order to assess more data and evidence going forward. We saw 4 years worth of inflation didn't anticipate caught up to in terms of their monetary policy reaction. And here they pause. After 4 months of relatively soft core inflation are living in to begin cutting interest rates. History is replete with all sorts of examples. How you can pull up part-time structurally and every same inflationary pressures. And that's a much bigger problem of the bank. Does that going forward. So I'd like to see them evaluate a lot more data. If I were governor of the bank of canada, I wouldn't be even talking about interest rate cuts just yet. I would have them on hold for the rest of the year, in my opinion. I think you have to have much more evidence, especially when their whole narrative coming into the start of the year, jon, about how the 1st half of this bp pain for the canadian economy is simply not unfolding. Is that expected? We've got a percentage point outside surprise to q4 td last, you know, last year, the 1st quarter, said essentially no growth back in the dr. We're getting up to a quarter percent and the 2nd quarter, wouldn' be surprised to get another roughly 2% growth. And 2ndquarter seen building that slack in the economy that could create less price pressure that they had

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