Blue Jays waiting for Brandon Belt to find his swing again

Joining a new team can often be very challenging. You’re striving hard to make a strong first impression while adjusting to new surroundings, an aspect Blue Jays' infielder Brandon Belt has struggled with early on.

After spending 12 seasons with the San Francisco Giants, which included two World Series titles, Belt signed a one-year, $9.3-million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays in free agency last offseason. He bet on himself, hoping to improve off an injury-riddled 2022 campaign.

Belt, limited to 78 games in 2022 by season-ending knee surgery, was acquired to help provide offensive balance to Toronto’s lineup — which featured more righties than anyone a year ago. With his knee pain behind him, he was confident about supplying a spark from the left side of the plate.

But so far, the results have yet to come for the 34-year-old, who’s hitting just .154/.233/.231 with one RBI and a 31 wRC+ across his first 11 games of 2023.

The production has been similar to his 2022 woes, where he slashed .213/.326/.350 with eight home runs, 23 RBIs and a 96 wRC+. Strikeouts, however, have been far more prevalent this time, as he’s punched out in 19 of his 43 plate appearances.

While we’re less than a month into the 2023 season, Belt’s 44.2 percent strikeout rate ranking in the 1st percentile isn’t ideal. Nor is having his whiff (32 percent), walk (9.3 percent) and chase rates (28.6 percent) place in the 18th, 42nd and 44th percentiles, respectively.

It also doesn’t help that the Blue Jays first baseman hasn’t generated much hard contact (35 percent hard-hit rate) and features a career-high ground-ball rate (45 percent). Thus, his xAVG (.133), xSLG (.224) and xwOBA (.196) rank in the 1st percentile, adding to his concerning start.

Much of Toronto’s fan base has waited patiently for the veteran lefty’s bat to heat up, while others have already given up hope. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are likely leaning on his impressive resume as an indicator of what could — and hopefully will — come down the road.

When healthy, Belt was among the game’s top performers in 2020-21, finishing fourth in wRC+ (162), SLG (.595) and wOBA (.413), tied for fifth in ISO (.310) and eighth in OBP (.393), according to FanGraphs. He also led the Giants in home runs (38), placing second in fWAR (5.3).

The 2016 All-Star also fared much better at creating hard contact and walks, placing in the 70th percentile or higher in both categories each season. His swing decisions were also improved back then, with his chase rate in the 89th percentile in 2020 and the 94th in ‘21.

Belt’s success mostly came against breaking balls and off-speed pitches, hitting .298/.374/.676 with a .435 wOBA and a plus-24 run value over those two seasons. And he did most of his damage either over the heart of the plate or middle-in.

More importantly, Belt also covered the outer half of the plate, showing a willingness to go the other way when needed. One quadrant he did struggle with, though, was down and inside — a weakness opposing pitchers have been attacking in 2023.

Historically, that section has been considered a left-hander’s wheelhouse, where they generate the most power. But the opposite has been true involving the former Giant, whose swing isn’t designed to cover that area.

Instead of featuring a golf-esque swing, as many other power-hitting lefties do, Belt dons more of a level swing, which helps keep his bat path in the strike zone for longer. The downside, however, is it creates a sizeable hole along the inside corner.

Since the opposition is already aware of the veteran’s explosiveness versus non-fastballs, teams have been pounding him with low-and-inside breaking balls, enticing him to extend the strike zone at times.

Then, when pitchers need to change Belt’s eye level, they pepper him with fastballs — an offering he has slashed .210 /.316/.376 against since 2022 — atop the zone. And at 34, he no longer possesses the bat speed to catch up to those pitches.

As a result, 10 of his 19 strikeouts this season have come via heaters, including five of his first six to begin the year.

It’s no secret Belt has disappointed during the early stages of his Blue Jays tenure. And he’d likely be the first one to admit that. But he has shown signs of improvement over the last week-plus.

Toronto’s first home stand of 2023 served as something of a launch pad, as the 6-foot-3 slugger went 4-for-10 with a pair of opposite-field doubles in three games. He also displayed improved plate discipline, striking out only once during that span.

Creating hard contact is another trend that’s re-emerged, carrying over into the Blue Jays’ current road trip, with Belt producing five hard-hit balls (an event featuring an exit velocity of at least 95 mph) since Apr. 11. For context, he recorded just two of those across his first six games.

Not only is Belt making better contact, but he has also seemingly minimized the hole in his swing, as two of his last five hits have been against pitches low and inside. The sample size is small, though it could signal an adjustment has occurred recently.

If that’s the case, the 13-year MLB professional might be approaching a breakout stretch that could help ignite the bottom half of Toronto’s lineup, a group that has been slow out of the gate. And that’d surely take some pressure off early standouts like Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Matt Chapman.

The opportunities should continue to come Belt’s way as well, as the Blue Jays will likely face a string of right-handed pitchers during Wednesday’s finale against the Houston Astros and this weekend’s series versus the New York Yankees.