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Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt's rough patch shines light on deeper concerns

The veteran right-hander has had two poor starts in a row, and he's failed to pitch five innings in three of his past five outings.

Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt has hit a midseason road speed bump recently. (John Bunch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

For most of Chris Bassitt's first year with the Toronto Blue Jays, the narrative surrounding his season has been consistent.

Although his Blue Jays debut was a disaster, the veteran has been seen as a stabilizing force since. As recently as June 8, he shared the American League innings-pitched lead with teammate Kevin Gausman and carried a 3.29 ERA.

In less than two weeks, the script has been flipped.

After a pair of rough outings Bassitt now has a 4.16 ERA, with peripherals that are even less impressive as his xERA sits at 4.49 and his FIP is now 4.99. This could just be a blip dragging down Bassitt's results, but a deeper look reveals some red flags that predate his last two outings.

If we divide his season into approximate halves, it's clear that his effectiveness has waned lately.

Via FanGraphs
Via FanGraphs

While the strikeout and walk numbers are solid, hitters have been clearing the wall with ease against Bassitt, and the Statcast numbers indicate they've been making much better contact against him lately.

Via FanGraphs.com
Via FanGraphs.com

The hard-hit rate stands out in particular, as he's recently experienced the worst stretch of his career in terms of allowing balls with an exit velocity of 95 mph or more:

Via Baseball Savant
Via Baseball Savant

Sometimes hard contact is something that fluctuates without much rhyme or reason, but as a pitcher who doesn't tend to run high strikeout rates, Bassitt relies on managing it to succeed. In order to be the pitcher who came into 2023 with a 3.13 ERA over his last three seasons, he needs to induce soft contact and keep the ball in the park.

Entering the season, his ability to limit home runs was a legitimate concern. Bassitt entered 2023 with a career HR/9 of 0.60 at home while working in pitcher-friendly parks, and a 1.25 mark away. That played a major role in his significant home-road ERA splits (2.68 vs. 4.26).

In recent weeks, the 34-year-old has given some legitimacy to the fears that home runs could be an issue for him in a less hospitable environment than Oakland or New York by posting one of the highest HR/9 marks of his career over a seven-game span.

Via Baseball Savant
Via Baseball Savant

The good news for Bassitt is that home-run problems tend to be the result of command issues or predictable pitch sequencing. The second concern should never be a problem for him considering the depth of his repertoire. As far as the first goes, Bassitt's history of posting stellar results without overpowering stuff is indicative of his ability to command the ball.

All of this should sort itself out to some extent. Bassitt hasn't suddenly forgotten how to hug the corners and expand the strike zone to minimize damage off the bat. At the same time, the home runs remain a real question.

Rogers Centre — a park that's looked surprisingly pitcher-friendly following its renovations — hasn't been the issue as Bassitt has allowed just two round trippers in Toronto, but overall he's conceded as many homers (15) in 88.2 innings as he did in all of 2021 (157.1 innings).

How well he gets that issue under control will go a long way towards determining if the rest of his season looks closer to the first half of his 2023 campaign or what we've seen lately.